25 / 08 / 2014 *Free Money*

Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort. Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!

Route 1:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on Man City Double Chance – ‘Man City/Draw’ currently @1.25, returning £62.50

Then place £50 on Liverpool in play during the game currently @ 4.00 this returns £200.00

This means that if the game ends as a draw or Man City win, you will make £12.50 profit. However if Liverpool win, you will make £100.00 profit.

Route 2:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Man City/Liverpool @ 1.28, this returns £64.00

Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @3.75, returning £187.50

This means if Man City or Liverpool win, you will make £14.00 profit. However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £87.50 profit

#1 – The Soccer Surgeon Says…

After months of blogging tips, relatively successfully with lots of close calls, a fair amount of decent wins, and the odd large bookie bash, i am now going to write short viewpoints on topics from the football world.

Two headlines to comment on here from the Daily Mail Online:

Liverpool are out of the FA Cup because ‘weak’ Webb refused to award clear penalty / Suarez’s reputation for theatrics is denying Liverpool obvious penalties

The author of the first article is former top referee Graham Poll, who outlines how Howard Webb will be remembered for the decision not to award what looked like a blatantly obvious penalty to Liverpool for an Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain foul on Luis Suarez, as opposed to what he believes was an otherwise strong performance from Englands ‘top’ referee, and that he perhaps opted not to award Liverpool a 2nd penalty due to this first one, which was given, being, well, soft at best. Well, Graham, i’d have to disagree with you. Just because the referee feels as though one decision that he awards was light or soft, shouldn’t influence in any way any other decision that he should have to make. If it was the case that the first decision, for which a penalty was awarded for Lukas Podolski’s soft touch on, as expected, Luis Suarez, was tough to call and had the potential to influence future decisions, then don’t give it Howard, or at least have the balls to back yourself and preserve the integrity of the game for the whole 90+ minutes instead of trying to determine some personal level of equilibrium in your decision making. It doesn’t matter if a tackle is as soft as a neatly folded square of Andrex Gorgeous Comfort Quilt, make a decison and move on. From that point forwards you give decisions based on the action & evidence you have before you. Stop living in the past maaaan!

Suarez doesn’t help himself when appealing for decisions due to his deep need to do an impression of a pain stricken salmon each and every time he feels contact. If he simply went down naturally, refs would not feel as though he was trying to con them through exaggeration, thus he may stand more of a chance of getting the decision he so craves. On this occasion, i feel that had a different referee had been selected to officiate, it would have been a penalty.

*If anyone hasn’t seen the incident, here it is…

After watching that, did anyone else have a flashback to Stone Cold Steve Austin in his hey day? Did Suarez get Stone Cold Stunnered??

For Graham Poll to even suggest that Howard Webb had an otherwise decent game is a confusing statement in itself considering that at every opportunity he gave into Steven Gerrard’s desires. It was this infatuation which must explain how he bottled booking Raheem Sterling for his petulance & gob-shitedness, which culminated in the little brat placing a hand of disgust/molestation on England’s top referee.

At first i thought “Oh Shit Raheem, you’ve really done it now. Howard’s gon’ get all Ross Kemp on your ass”, but no. One look into the Liverpool captain’s piercing eyes had our Howard weak at the knees and card shy. What chance has the FA got of improving the image of players and achieving success in their ‘Respect’ campaigns if England’s #1 Ref doesn’t possess the Cahoonies to stand up to a 5′ 7″ 19 year old.

For all of Webbs strengths, over the last season or so he seems to have had an internal explosion of self importance.  In 2010, he became the first person to referee the finals of both the UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cup in the same year, and i feel this honour has gone to his head. He appears to form, and follow, personal opinions of players i.e his man crush for Gerrard, and his apparent distaste for Suarez. Earlier in the season he failed to provide any protection to Suarez when Chelsea’s Samuel Eto’o committed a cynical foul against the Uruguayan  For me, there are just two available routes to go down in order to solve this; either Webb takes a step back, looks at himself and decides to knuckle down and be the best referee, or Steven Gerrard cashes in some Tesco Clubcard vouchers and takes Howard to Bella Italia before asking him to be nicer to his friend Luis.

Links to articles:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2560867/GRAHAM-POLL-Liverpool-FA-Cup-weak-Webb-refused-award-clear-penalty.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2561130/Suarezs-reputation-theatrics-denying-Liverpool-obvious-penalties.html

01 / 09 / 2013

It really is Super Sunday this weekend with Liverpool hosting Manchester United followed by Tottenhams visit to arch rivals Arsenal.

Liverpool v Manchester United

After watching the utter dross that was Man United v Chelsea earlier in the week, it was more than obvious that Jose Mourinho had decided to go to Old Trafford and not risk defeat, settling for a draw and hoping to nick a win. This meant that the onus was on United to seize the game and claim a win against their title rivals, but the Red Devils just didnt produce. As the current champions who have ambitions to retain their crown, United will have expected to take 4 points or more from the fixtures against Chelsea and Liverpool. For me, this means that the pressure is now on Man United as if they lose to Liverpool then questions will be asked of Moyes and his men in regards to whether they have the appetite and ability to dominate against their rivals. Granted that if they win or draw this match then they will remain unbeaten in what has been a tough start to their season, yet if they lose against Liverpool then many will see it as two games in which they haven’t won against big rivals.

So far this season Liverpool have won both of their games and kept two clean sheets in what has been an impressive start to the campaign. Brendan Rodgers will be hoping to avoid going into the international break with a defeat against their major rivals looming in his squads minds, and will be relatively confident of coming away from this match with at least a point. The fluidity and pace of Liverpools attack has the potential to cause Uniteds defence some issues, whilst Uniteds lack of creativity against Chelsea will offer some confidence to the Liverpool back line who hope to record another clean sheet.

Something that could prove crucial to the outcome of the tie is the number of injury concerns that Liverpool have to contend with coming into the game. In their midweek cup tie against Notts County which ran into extra time Liverpool picked up injuries to defensive duo Kolo Toure and Aly Cissokho and midfielder Joe Allen. It seems that if Toure fails to recover from his groin problem then Liverpool will look to replace him with Martin Skrtel, should he sufficiently recover from a knee injury. Replacing 1 injured players with another (not fully fit), isnt ideal for any team. Even if the injury situation does not prove to much of an issue for Brendan Rodgers, then the fatigue his players may experience due to playing 120 minutes midweek may cause him a headache.

PAST THREE MEETINGS…

Man United 2 (Van Persie, Vidic) Liverpool 1(Sturridge), Premier League, Jan 2013

Liverpool 1 (Gerrard) Man United 2 (Rafael, Van Persie), Premier League, Sept 2012

Man United 2(Rooney 2) Liverpool 1 (Suarez), Premier League, Feb 2012

Looking at the previous 3 meetings between the sides, United have won each tie 2-1, with Van Persie finding the net in each of last seasons meetings. Clearly United have enjoyed facing Liverpool of late,  with United winning more Premier League points here (34) than any other visiting team, while their 10 wins at Anfield is four more than any other club have managed in the Premier League era (Arsenal have won six). Yet on the contrary we have new United manager David Moyes’ personal (Everton) record when visiting Anfield, which is a bit of a miserable read.  In 12 trips to Anfield, all as Everton manager, Moyes lost five and drew seven. Under SAF United clearly found a winning formula, so if Moyes tries to influence the way United play to his liking, then it appears they may struggle and fair less favorably than they have over the last few games.

Personally, I think both teams would love to avoid defeat here, and whilst i think United will edge it, i’d take advantage of the odds currently available and back them on the +0.25 Asian Handicap. If you cant find this you can select United at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if United the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.

Scorewise, id look at 1-1 or 2-1 (United win).

Arsenal v Tottenham

The North London derby is always a tasty affair, and i expect this one to live up to expectations. A lot has been made of the contrasts of fortunes that both sides have experienced in the summer transfer window so far, and i feel that it could prove crucial in this encounter between the two sides. After both sides played European football midweek, Arsenal’s lack of squad depth could see their players tired, whilst Tottenham’s ability to rotate should ensure freshness amongst their players. In their 3-0 win over Dinamo Tbilisi, you could count at least 5 players for Spurs who would not be considered first 11 regulars, yet the comfortable nature of their win suggests that not only do they have squad depth, but that quality is flowing throughout. If we look at Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Fenerbahce, its fair to say that at least 9 of the players who started the game are considered first choice for Arsene Wenger, whilst The Gunners had five under-21s on the bench against Fulham recently and they’ve picked up another injury since.

It is in the middle of the park that i feel Spurs could dominate this game. The previous matches between the two sides have seen both Arsenal and Spurs adopt high lines, which has contributed to the amount of goals in the games. For me, if Arsenal does this is could be disastrous. When playing a high line, the midfield must put sufficient pressure on the ball so that through balls are prevented. Consistent, effective pressure is not something you would claim to be one of the Arsenal midfields strengths. This job is one for a combative, energetic, tough tackling type of player. Do Spurs have a player such as this? Well yes, they can pick from Mousa Dembele, Etienne Capoue and Paulinho, even Sandro, when looking for somebody to take on that role. I would suggest that the Spurs midfield players particular attention to Cazorla (no surprise there) due to him being particularly adept at playing through balls. Whoever it is that AVB selects to try to neutralize Cazorla should possess the athleticism required to cause Cazorla to second think any ideas he has of running past the opposition midfield, forcing him to pass. As long as the through ball are cut out, Spurs should feel less worried when one of the little Spaniards team mates receives the ball from him, knowing that they have both done their job and whomever he passes to is less likely to trouble their goal.

I dont envisage there being the goal fest that some expect due to several points. First of all, Lukas Podolski has played a hand in eight goals (scoring five and assisting three) in his last seven Premier League starts for Arsenal. As we all know the German is out injured so he could be a big miss when it comes to finding the net for Arsenal. For Tottenham, Gareth Bale has scored more goals against Arsenal in the Premier League than any other opposition, finding the net five times in 10 appearances, whilst scoring in both meetings between the teams last season. Again, we know he wont be taking to the field on Sunday due to his impending move to Real Madrid. Despite these two attacking absences, i still expect there to be Over 2.5 Goals, and considering that 13 of the last 14 league matches between Tottenham and Arsenal have achieved this, i should be a relatively safe bet. I don’t doubt that there are likely to be goals, but being so early into the season neither are going to want to give too much away to a rival for a champions league place,  much like in the Man United v Chelsea fixture recently.

As with United in the first game, I’ll be taking Tottenham on +0.25 AH, or If you cant find this you can select Spurs at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if Spurs win the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.

2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction

For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.

As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really.  The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.

15 / 12 / 2012

LIVERPOOL v Aston Villa (Medium Confidence)

It has been a rare week for Liverpool in the sense that they have not had to deal with any any European, domestic cup or international action during midweek. This has allowed the Liverpool squad to have a whole week to focus on the preparation for their next league fixture against a young Aston Villa side. This frequency of this scenario of having a decent period of preparation can be compared to the regularity of Liverpool winning consecutive league games. Yet in a topsy-turvy league, after last Sunday’s entertaining 3-2 triumph over West Ham United, this is the situation that Liverpool find themselves in. If we include their win over Udinese in the Europa League, then Brendan Rodgers’ side have won 3 times in just 9 days, which could provide the shot of confidence and optimism which the club needs to boost their season and convince those on the fence that Roger’s philosophy is worth buying into.

The unpredictability of the league has meant that the Home side are now just four points behind fourth placed city rivals Everton, despite them sitting in an unimpressive 10th position. Villa are finding the season relatively difficult,  currently finding themselves languishing in 16th with only 15 points from their 16 games played.

Despite it appearing that all indications point to a home win, as ever with Liverpool over recent years there should not be too much blind optimism. I feel that the outcome of this match will depend partly on how the Away side decide to approach the game. After beating Norwich in order to progress to the semi-final of the COC, the Villa players are likely to be in a buoyant mood. I feel that this will work favorably for Liverpool as their opponents may opt for a more expansive, confident style. I’m anticipating that this will create additional space for in the final third which could be crucial as I feel Liverpool struggle to break down resilient, stubborn opposition, even when playing at Anfield. The return of Luis Suarez, and the movement and tenacity that he provides, will cause Villa trouble, and coupled with the rest of the team being confident, this leads me to anticipate a home win.

When Villa make the trip to Anfield there are usually goals – the last 6 encounters producing 2, 3, 4, 5, 4 & 4  goals (average of 3.7 goals per game) – so it seems likely that the match will be exciting enough to find itself in at least the middle of MOTD’s running order. Again, the return of Suarez will also aid in a goals bet as he faces an inexperienced backline.

LIVERPOOL WIN, OVER 2.5 GOALS, SUAREZ SCORES

CARDIFF v Peterborough (High Confidence)

Looking at the results from the last few rounds of fixtures from the Championship, following the form teams will have proved fruitful, which is why I am following this route this weekend, where some value may be found. England’s second division is littered with sides who play good football, which allows goal bets to a decent avenue for profit. Last weekend only around a quarter of sides kept a clean sheet, and just 2 of the 24 the weekend before. The match that I will be focusing on will be that of Cardiff v Peterborough.

Table topping Cardiff face struggling Peterborough, and as the available odds suggest Cardiff are massive favourites for the win here. Its not difficult to see why that is the case as they have been churning out home victories this season, whereas Peterborough have gained just 7 points away from home. Recent form suggest Cardiff should breeze through this one, after winning 5 of their last 6 games, whilst Peterborough have lost 7 of their last 8.

Cardiff have been more than impressive at home this season, boasting a 100% record due to achieving 10 wins out of 10 games and with 21 goals scored at home ( as well as 21 goals scored away) only Derby and Leicester have scored more home goals. Whilst some sides attacking capabilities means that they can suffer defensively, this has not been the case with Cardiff. They have also been solid defensively in only conceding 5 goals and keeping 5 clean sheets, so it will be no surprise should Peterborough find it hard, or impossible, to breakdown that stubborn defence.

It’s getting to the stage of the season now when sides are round about where they deserve to be. Enough games have commenced for poor starts to be rectified, but Peterborough are bottom of the league for a reason, they’re rubbish. Neither their home nor away form is any good having only won 4 games all season, and with 16 losses and 1 draw there seems to be only 1 realistic result coming from this game. If anything, we should surely be looking at how many Cardiff will score. They should really be just too good for their opponents and outplay them, which is why I think they will easily cover a -1 handicap, and for those brave/confident enough, perhaps a -2.

CARDIFF WIN, CARDIFF -1, OVER 2.5 GOALS

BOURNEMOUTH v Colchester (Medium Confidence)

Bournemouth have been gradually moving upwards in the league standings since Eddie Howe returned to the club, and are currently on a 12 game unbeaten run in all competitions. Of these 12 games, 9 have been wins, they have scored 31 goals, and conceded 13. This season at home in the league they have won 4 and drawn 5 of their games, losing just once, and another stat which influences my prediction is that Bournemouth have scored in their last 16 home matches. Colchester have conceded 19 goals in their 10 away games this season, which increases my belief that Bournemouth will find the net at least once, if not twice in this match.

Colchester are 8places below Bournemouth with one of the worst away records in the league with W2 D2 L6 and a -10goal difference. Taking just 4 points from a possible 24 is a good indication of their struggles away from home. After losing the last 3 in a row, including losing 2-0 to Oldham at home last week and 5-1 away to MK Dons the week before, Colchester will be short of confidence. It is worth noting that Bournemouth drew with MK earlier in the season when they were going through a poor period, and put 4 past Oldham.

Although I will be including Bournemouth in my accumulator selection, I really think that any value in this bet can be found in the goals markets. In regards to Bournemouth, it is interesting that in 9 of their last 10 games at home, both teams have scored. With Colchester, a positive that they can draw upon is that in their last 6 away games, they have scored in each one, totaling 9 goals. In 3 of their previous 4 away games, they have actually managed to score 2 goals. I think worthwhile bets here will be BTTS and O2.5 Goals.

BOURNEMOUTH WIN, BTTS, O2.5 GOALS, GRABBAN ANYTIME

Summary

Liverpool, Cardiff, Bournemouth in Doubles & Treble with BetVictor.

Liverpool v Aston Villa O2.5 Goals, Cardiff v Peterborough O2.5 Goals, Bournemouth v Colchester O2.5 Goals in Doubles & Treble with Ladbrokes

Luis Suarez Anytime Goalscorer with Boylesports

Cardiff -1 with Bet365

Lewis Grabban Anytime Goalscorer with Coral