20 / 09 / 2014
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
Villa have started the season well, there is no doubt about it. However, they have scored just 4 goals and have not recorded what i would describe as a convincing victory over any side as yet. Arsenal would have wanted to have 3 wins and a draw as opposed to the 1 win and 3 draws that they have achieved in the League so far, but they remain unbeaten and this should not be ignored. You have to go back to 1998 for the last time Villa achieved a home win over The Gunners, and I’m sure that Arsenal will be striving to put a dismal performance in the Champions League against Dortmund behind them and give their Premier League campaign a shot in the arm.
Millwall v NOTTM FOREST
Forest are flying at the minute, with a record of W5 D2 L0, whilst scoring 17 and conceding 7 setting them up in a nice position at the top of the table. They face a Millwall side who have failed to build on a promising start to the campaign, after winning 2 and drawing 1 from their first 3 league games have now lost 3 of their last 4, with an unimpressive win over the comedy circus that is Blackpool the only positive in a poor run. Britt Assombalonga is a striker in fine form and Nottm Forest can seemingly rely on the big man to get them goals this season, so with Millwall’s attack looking goal shy in comparison, i fancy the away side to take the spoils.
NORWICH v Birmingham
Norwich look like they will be challenging for an automatic return to the Premier League after a posting a record of W5 D1 L1 with a +10 GD. They face a Birmingham side who have done just enough to avoid being in the relegation zone, and battling against relegation is something they should expect to be doing the whole season. Norwich have scored 3 or more goals in 5 games this season, as well as achieving 3 clean sheets. Birmingham have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 games this season, managing just 1 clean sheets. For me, these stats speak volumes and a home win looks inevitable.
Fleetwood v BRISTOL CITY
A record of W6 D2 L0 (+11 GD) has propelled Bristol to the top of the League One table, whilst Fleetwood sit in 8th after a decent start to the campaign with a record of W3 D3 L2 (+2 GD). Bristol have won 4 on the bounce, as well as posting 3 consecutive clean sheets. Their opponents Fleetwood have lost 3 of their last 4 games, whilst also finding themselves unable to score any goals in their last 3 games. When you compare each sides recent record Bristol clearly will be the more confident side and i expect them to take all 3 points this weekend.
MK DONS v Crewe
Despite losing to Bradford in their last game, i still fancy MK Dons this weekend where they can bounce back against Crewe. At home, MK Dons have a record of W4 D1 L0 (+10 GD), with 3 clean sheets in all competitions, whilst Crewe have an away record of W1 D1 L3 (-3 GD), with 1 clean sheet. Crewe have conceded 2 goals in 3 of their away games, whilst the MK Dons have scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their home games. These stats lead me to foresee a comfortable home win.
Port Vale v BARNSLEY
Port Vale are in a barren run of 6 consecutive defeats, and with manager Micky Adams openly stating that he feels he may have done as much as he can at the club, they go into this weekend fixture with Barnsley with what seems to be a lack of direction and void of confidence. Barnsley on the other hand have suffered the anguish of defeat just once in their last seven games, and their away record during the season had yielded 1 win and 3 draws. Barnsley look like a difficult side to beat, but need to convert some draws into wins if they are to move up the table, but what better opportunity could they ask for than Port Vale in their current plight?
Yeovil v PETERBOROUGH
Yeovil have an injury list to contend with as they host Peterborough this weekend, and at this level not many sides have quality throughout their squad so they will have a challenge on their hands to get something out of a game with one of the Leagues better teams. The home side have a record this season of W2 D3 L3 (-3 GD) whilst Peterborough have a record of W5 D1 L2 (+5 GD). Further stats which point towards an away win are that Yeovil are currently the ranked 20th in terms of home records with no wins on home soil as yet, securing just 3 draws and suffering 1 defeat, whereas Peterborough are classed as the 3rd best away side with a record of W3 D0 L1, registering 2 clean sheets as well.
BARNET v Altrincham
Barnet suffered a home defeat to Wrexham in their last fixture, but i consider The Bees to be one of the divisions best sides and the promotion hopefuls will want an immediate return to winning ways when they face Altrincham this weekend. Barnet have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their games this season, and with their opponents having conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of their games, you would expect Barnet to be finding the net a couple of times this weekend against statistically weaker opponents.
TORQUAY v Dover
Torquay are the form side in the Conference Premier at the moment, are playing host to a struggling Dover side is unlikely to cause too them many sleepless nights. Torquay have won 5 on the bounce, as well as recording 4 consecutive clean sheets. Torquay have a home record of W3 D2 L0, scoring 9 & conceding 1, with 4 home clean sheets. Dover have an away record of W1 D1 L3, scoring 7 and conceding 13. These stats say to me that Torquay will put a few past Dover with there being little chance of reply from their opponents.
9 Fold @ 416 / 1
Heinz (Norwich, Nottm Forest, Bristol City, MK Dons, Torquay & Barnet) @ 31/1
05 / 10 / 2013
LIVERPOOL v Crystal Palace
After a decent win over Sunderland in which Luis Suarez gained 90 valuable minutes and 2 decent goals, Liverpool will expect to take the 3 points in this fixture to maintain their decent start to the season. For me, it is no surprise that Suarez’s return to the team coincided with only the second time Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in the league this season. Their home record reads as W2 D0 L1, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Their victories came against a Stoke side who look difficult to beat, and big rivals Man Utd, whilst the defeat was against Southampton who look a decent outfit this season. Their opponents Crystal Palace are struggling, as expected. They are lost 5 and won just 1 this season, against the only side lower than themselves in the league, Sunderland. Away from home they have lost 3, scoring 1 and conceding 6. They have failed to score in 3 straight league games now and against a defence with the quality they will face at Anfield i can’t see this changing.
QPR v Barnsley
After playing on Saturday, QPR will have had a whole week to recover & prepare for this fixture. Their opponents however also had to play on Tuesday against a decent Reading side, a fixture which i feel could make this trip to QPR difficult for them. QPR remain unbeaten this season and have a home record of W4 D0 L0, scoring 6 and conceding just 1. Barnsley find themselves at the bottom end of the table, and going into this game they have an away record of W0 D0 L5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Excellent home form V poor away form indicates just one outcome for this tie; a home win.
MANSFIELD v Hartlepool
Mansfield are really excelling this season after their promotion and it isnt beyond them to acheive back to back promotions should they continue the great run of form that they are currently on. They face a visit from a Hartlepool side who are hovering just above the drop zone. Mansfield have a home record of W2 D2 L0, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Hartlepool suffered relegation from League One last season and have found life in League Two difficult to adapt to. They have an away record of W0 D3 L1, scoring 2 and conceding 5. This fixture seemingly throws together two sides, one of which is experiencing an upturn in fortunes, and the other is stuck in a downward spiral. With Mansfield being new to the division, you would think that perhaps their 8 game unbeaten run would come to an end at some point, but after beating the league leaders and previously unbeaton Chesterfield in their last game, i dont feel that they will slip up against Hartlepool.
OXFORD v Southend
2nd place Oxford face mid table Southend, a side who have been unable to record a win in their last 6 games. This run extends back to mid-August and began after an excellent start of 3 straight victories. Their away record reads as W1 D1 L2, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Three of the defeats in this point-barron run have came against sides in the top 10, a stat which will give the home side Oxford confidence. Oxford have a home record of W1 D2 L1, scoring 5 and conceding 5. It is worth noting that their defeat came against 1st place Chesterfield, whilst the draws were against Rochdale (5th) and Wycombe (10th). So whilst Southend are losing against top 10 sides, Oxford aren’t. They have more quality than Southend, and should make home advantage count.
CAMBRIDGE v Hereford
Cambridge remain unbeaten at the top of the Conference table this season, and should really be looking to continue in this fashion when they face 14th place Hereford this wekeend. Hereford are distinctly average, with a record of W4 D4 L4, scoring and conceding 13. Away from home their record reads as W1 D2 L3, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Unfortunately, Hereford travel to a Cambridge side who are certainly not average in this division. They have a home record of played 5 won 5, scoring 15 and conceding 2. Some comparable fixtures can be found with Nuneaton, Gateshead & Halifax being 3 teams that Cambridge have beaten this season, all of which Hereford have failed to win against, picking up just 1 point against Halifax. For me, this could end up being a one sided affair.
5-Fold pays @ 11/1
The 5 fold consists of 5 home teams who i fancy to win. I appreciate the impact being at home can have which is why i have opted for just home wins, although if you fancy adding to this 5-Fold and increasing the odds substantially, then i recommend the following 2 fixtures in which i would back the away sides.
Oldham v LEYTON ORIENT
Leyton Orient’s winning run came to a halt in their previous fixture when they drew 1-1 with Walsall. However, i wouldnt look upon this result as a sign that Leyton Orient are set to have a poor period as Walsall are a decent side who are difficult to beat. They will still be a very confident squad and will fancy their chances of getting back to winning ways when they travel to Oldham this weekend. The home side are on a poor run, picking up 1 point from their last 5 games. Their home form this season reads as W1 D1 L2, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Being on such a poor run in general and facing the league leaders infront of their home crowd could be too much pressure for the Oldham squad. Orient’s away form stands at played 4 won 4, scoring 10 and conceding 2. An away win should be a formality in this fixture.
Hyde v BRAINTREE
Hyde are rooted firmly to the bottom of the table, and in all honesty do not look like they have much chance of improving their standing. Having now lost 8 in a row, they will be short of any sort of confidence, and will not be looking forward to hosting a Braintree side who are 5th in the league. Braintree’s away record is W3 D1 L1, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Not only are Hyde on an awful run, they have now failed to even score in four straight games. Braintree will be looking to wrap this one up and maintain their decent league position, and i expect a comfortable win.
This takes the 7-Fold odds to 53/1
04 / 05 / 2013
TOTTENHAM v Southampton
Spurs’ home form is decent and with them chasing Champions League football they will expect to win this game against a Southampton side who’s away form is nothing to shout about. There is a home/away GD swing of 21 going into this encounter favouring Spurs. Southampton are pretty much safe, with it being very unlikely they will slip into the bottom 3 with just 4 games remaining now.
QPR v ARSENAL
Arsenal are still fighting hard for a top 4 spot and a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last week kept them as favourites to finish 4th ahead of Tottenham. They really cannot afford any slip ups and even if they do win all their remaining games it may not be enough if Spurs win all of theirs. Arsenal know they cannot afford to drop any points here and they really come out fired up against Manchester United last week, if they can play at that level again they’ll manage an easy victory.
WEST HAM (dnb) v Newcastle
Whilst West Ham are safe, i still expect them to going into this home match against Newcastle with sufficient hunger to put in a solid performance. Sam Allardyce, along with Kevin Nolan & Andy Carroll will relish the chance to face their former club and securing the 3 points will be top of their agenda. The Hammers are looking to move further into the top half in what has been a great first season back in the top flight, whereas Newcastle are right back into relegation trouble after a shocking performance against Liverpool last week. The spanking they got from Liverpool combined with losing the derby to Sunderland has left the Magpies in a horrible position amid rumours of dressing room unrest at St. James’. Their away record this season is awful, winning just 1 from 17 games, losing 10, whilst The Hammers have a home record of W8 D5 L4 which isn’t too bad. Going into this game there is a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring West Ham, and I can’t really look past West Ham taking at least 1 point from this game.
BOLTON v Blackpool
A win for Bolton in this Lancashire derby would seal a place in the play offs for the home sides. They are in a great run of form with just one defeat in 6 games, winning 4 and drawing 1. Being one of the form sides of the division has coincided with Leicester, Nott’m Forest and Middlesbrough all stuttering, meaning Bolton now have this opportunity to win a chance of promotion. Since moving to Bolton, manager Dougie Freedman has really sorted the team out and has impressed me. If you look at how Crystal Palace have struggled since his departure you can see the effect he has. Blackpool are safe from the drop, and have no doubt improved since Paul Ince took charge. Having little to play for in terms of the league could affect the team and i think that they may not match Bolton for desire and tempo in this match. Bolton’s home record reads as W14 D5 L3, whilst Blackpool’s away record stands at W6 D7 L9. Going into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 26 favouring Bolton. Improving non-stop over the past few months and it would be no surprise if they prove to be too much for Blackpool.
CHARLTON v Bristol
If the season had another 5 games to go then Charlton would harbour serious ambitions of a play off push, having lost just once in their last 10 games, winning 5 and drawing 4. At home they have a record of W7 D6 L9, which admittedly isn’t great. However, they have now won their last 3 home games and will be full of confidence. Bristol’s away record is a key reason as to why they have already been relegation, with it reading as W3 D4 L15. Heading into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 13 favouring Charlton, mainly down to Bristol’s inadequacy at both ends of the field. The last time Bristol won an away game was way back in December ’12 and I see no reason why they would suddenly produce a winning performance here. Charlton can recall a win over Bristol earlier in the season by two goals to nil for an added confidence boost if necessary
DERBY (dnb) v Millwall
I don’t envisage Millwall succumbing to relegation, despite not seeing them taking the 3 points in this one with 1 point realistically enough for them to survive being dragged into the drop zone. They face a Derby County side who have an admirable home record of W11 D7 L4, whilst Millwall’s away record stands at W7 D7 L8. Derby haven’t been in the best of form recently, yet Millwall have been worse still. Fortunately for the Lions it requires the trio of Sheff Wednesday ( v Middlesbrough), Peterborough ( v Crystal Palace) & Barnsley ( v Huddersfield) to all win if they themselves lose for them to be relegated. In my eyes the side doesn’t possess much quality and i can see Derby taking full advantage of being at home and coming away with the spoils here.
6 Fold – Odds 16.91
16 / 03 / 2013
MAN UTD v Reading
United have a near perfect home record this season of W13 D0 L1, scoring 38 and conceding 15. They have won 5 on the bounce, are unbeaten in 16 league games, and recently beat Reading away from home. Reading on the other hand have struggled to the extent that they have departed with manager McDermott. Away from home they have a record of W1 D2 L11, scoring 12 and conceding 27. These stats produce a home/away GD swing of 38 (favours United). After meeting twice this season already, United can recall 2 recent victories. As we approach the business end of the season i doubt Reading will fair aswell as they have against United this time round, despite the two losses. United seem to be more than keen to avoid needless losses and there is no sign of complacency within the camp. After their elimination from the Champions League to Real Madrid, and then the draw against Chelsea, SAF will want his side to get back to winning ways this weekend. I expect more than 1 United goal, and wouldnt be surprised if they kept a clean sheet. For this reason i will be backing United.
DONCASTER v Portsmouth
Doncaster will look to continue their promotion push against relegation threatened Pompey this weekend. They do not possess the most impressive home record, yet it is one that they can build on in this fixture, currently reading as W8 D4 L6, scoring 23 and conceding 19. They face a Pompey side who have given themselves some survival hope after 2 wins in their last 2 games, yet they go into this match on the back of a defeat to Leyton Orient. Doncaster have also won 2 of their last 3, but go into the game after a win over 7th placed Bournemouth. Other relevant recent results include wins over Hartlepool and Shrewsbury, both of whom have been struggling this season, with Hartlepool sitting just 1 place and 2 points above Pompey. Pompey’s away form has done them no favours this season, with their record reading as W3 D5 L11, scoring 18 and conceding 34. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 20 (favours Doncaster). The two sides have met already this season, with Doncaster running out victors by a single goal to nil. I expect a similar outcome here.
KIDDERMINSTER v Tamworth
After two away games on the bounce, Kidderminster return home this weekend looking to secure 3 points and maintain their play off position and hopes of promotion. They are clearly comfortable at home, boasting a record of W11 D3 L4, scoring 34 and conceding 18. They face a Tamworth side who have a decent away record in all honest, reading W6 D4 L7, scoring 25 and conceding 27. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 18 (favours Kidderminster). The head to head record between the two sides is strongly in favour of Kidderminster, with them not losing to Tamworth at all over the last 3 seasons, drawing 4 and winning 2, the most recent of which was this season in December where they won by 1 goal to nil away from home. I think Kidderminster’s drive for promotion coupled with the 7 points breathing space that Tamworth have over the relegation zone will lead to a home win here.
This Treble pays odds of 2.93
29 / 12 / 2012
STOKE v Southampton
After a good run of form, Stoke have gradually climbed the table and have moved up to eighth in the Premier League. Aware that they face tough matches against Manchester City, Chelsea, and Swansea after the visit of Southampton, a win on Saturday will be crucial to maintain their decent position in the league. The fact that Southampton have one of the poorer defenses in the League this season will boost Stoke’s chances, and while Stoke are by no means prolific in front of goal, Tony Pulis’ players should be confident they can break open the visitors’ back four on Saturday. The man to do this for me is John Walters. This guy has found some form of late, having most recently scored a double in Stoke’s 3-1 win over Liverpool – the second of which would have been overly admired had it come from the boot of a more stylish, marketable player. If Walters can again combine with Kenwyne Jones effectively, Southampton will struggle.
The home side are unbeaten in nine Premier League matches and 16 consecutive games at the Britannia Stadium. This impressive record stems from their defensive qualities – The Potters have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League (14) and still hold the record for the highest amount of clean sheets in the division (9). Their opponents meanwhile have won just once away from home this season. Six defeats and one draw in their other seven attempts mean the Saints have taken only four points from a possible 32 on their travels. It can take something special to unlock Stoke, and whilst Southampton have the talents of Gaston Ramirez, Adam Lallana will again be a big miss.
Admittedly The Saints’ performances have improved recently, but an in-form Stoke side, who are notoriously hard to beat, offer a great bet in my eyes.
CARDIFF v Millwall
This game has caused me some headaches in decided to go with it. I was tempted to back P’Boro after their run of victories against struggling Bristol..but I truly believe that P’Boro will get relegated as they are a poor, poor side, and so I just can’t trust them. Milwall have had a decent season so far, and a side not to be underestimated. Recently though, they have hit a bit of an inconsistent patch. They have just one win in their last five games, scoring 4 and conceding 7 in this run.
Cardiff, despite an appalling, piss-taking defeat at the hand of P’Boro, have been superior in their consistency this season. A record of W7 D1 L2 in their last 10 league games speaks for itself and it is no surprise they sit at the top of the table. In all honesty, given the squad that they have assembled, this is widely expected, but what is good to see is that the players seem to be thriving on the competition for places and expectation that they exit this league via to top end.
After scoring 9 goals, and conceding 4 in their last 5 games, I can see Cardiff bagging more than one goal in this match. They should be confident after beating a decent Crystal Palace side last time out, and against a Millwall side that they have not lost to in the last 6 meetings (3 season period), they should come out triumphant in this one.
SHEFF UTD v Hartlepool
This is an easy selection really. Sheffield United have been remarkably consistent this season, losing just twice. Yet both those losses came away from home, and this weekend they play host, and hope to maintain their unbeaten home record of 6 wins and 6 draws. Their home GD reads at +11 due to scoring 21 and conceding 10 goals. The usual 5 game recent form period can be applied here, with Sheff Utd recording LWDWW and Hartlepool having LDLLL, yet even the 5 games before this period offers similar reading. It’s a simple case of a good team against a poor team, and inform team against struggling side, big versus small, top versus bottom, goal hungry versus goal shy, confident versus self-doubting. Home victory.
CHELTENHAM v Bristol Rovers
The home side have the opportunity to move into joint top spot if they manage to achieve a win against Bristol Rovers this weekend in what is a local derby. The top end of the League 2 table is tight, so Cheltenham will be looking to bag the 3 points here in what is a game they really should expect to win. They have the opportunity to really take it to Bristol and should aim to score at least 2 realistically. Having scored 21 goals at home, this should be more than just a possibility what with their opponents having conceded 26 away from home already. Cheltenham have been in fairly decent form recently with wins against Barnet, Northampton and Wycombe, the latter provided relief that they had not began to falter after being thrashed by Rochdale pre-xmas.
As the home side, Cheltenham have been solid, W8 D2 L2, being unbeaten in their last 9 home games, achieving 6 clean sheet in this run. They have a variety of goalscorers in the squad, and in Billy Jones they have a player who has been creating chances and gaining assists with ease. It is primarily the Home/Away records that make me so confident in this game. As strong as Cheltenham are at home, Bristol are as weak away from home, displaying a record of W1 D4 L7, with a -13 GD. Ouch! They have conceded in each of the last 15 away games they have played. Against Cheltenham this seem like asking to be punished, and I duly expect them to be.
Summary
Backing these 4 home sides will only get you odds of around 8/1.
To make it more interesting you could have Cheltenham & Sheff Utd at -1, which boosts the odds to around 18/1.
A draw no bet for the 4 fold produces odds of around 2.5/1 so not great…but a safer option none the less.
Alternative 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee)
Arsenal
Middlesbrough
Tranmere
Rotherham
Value 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee / Draw No Bet – Yankee)
West Ham
Birmingham City
Doncaster Rovers
Wycombe Wanderers
The Soccer Surgeon 
