Season Long Bets

It is just a few days before the Premier League kicks off for what promises to be one of the most competitive seasons for years. With Man United, Man City & Chelsea all having new managers it remains to be seen who will triumph come the end of May. Not only have those at the top of the league invested, the rest of the league have too with Norwich looking like they have had a good transfer window, whilst Sunderland have had an overhaul of last seasons failing squad. Here i have selected a few bets which will run for the whole season.

League Winners:

Premier League – Chelsea @ 3.25 (EW)

Championship – Reading @ 9 (EW)

League One – Wolves @ 4.5 (EW)

League Two – Chesterfield @ 8.5 (EW)

4-fold with SkyBet

Premier League Top Goalscorer:

I tried to avoid RVP here as there is little value with him, whilst Bale is too risky with the strong Madrid interest. As for Suarez, his current fallout with Liverpool means that even when he has served the rest of his ban he may not be a starting 11 player, nor fully match fit thus giving him potentially a 10 game handicap.

Romelu Lukaku @ 26 (EW) – Bet365

Edin Dzeko @ 34 (EW) – Bet365

Premier League Relegation:

Fulham @ 8 – BetVictor

Top 8 Finish:

Swansea @ 3.5 – Stan James

Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners

In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.

For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.

As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.

League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.

And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.

 

16 / 03 / 2013

MAN UTD v Reading

United have a near perfect home record this season of W13 D0 L1, scoring 38 and conceding 15. They have won 5 on the bounce, are unbeaten in 16 league games, and recently beat Reading away from home. Reading on the other hand have struggled to the extent that they have departed with manager McDermott. Away from home they have a record of W1 D2 L11, scoring 12 and conceding 27. These stats produce a home/away GD swing of 38 (favours United). After meeting twice this season already, United can recall 2 recent victories. As we approach the business end of the season i doubt Reading will fair aswell as they have against United this time round, despite the two losses. United seem to be more than keen to avoid needless losses and there is no sign of complacency within the camp. After their elimination from the Champions League to Real Madrid, and then the draw against Chelsea, SAF will want his side to get back to winning ways this weekend. I expect more than 1 United goal, and wouldnt be surprised if they kept a clean sheet. For this reason i will be backing United.

DONCASTER v Portsmouth

Doncaster will look to continue their promotion push against relegation threatened Pompey this weekend. They do not possess the most impressive home record, yet it is one that they can build on in this fixture, currently reading as W8 D4 L6, scoring 23 and conceding 19. They face a Pompey side who have given themselves some survival hope after 2 wins in their last 2 games, yet they go into this match on the back of a defeat to Leyton Orient. Doncaster have also won 2 of their last 3, but go into the game after a win over 7^th placed Bournemouth. Other relevant recent results include wins over Hartlepool and Shrewsbury, both of whom have been struggling this season, with Hartlepool sitting just 1 place and 2 points above Pompey. Pompey’s away form has done them no favours this season, with their record reading as W3 D5 L11, scoring 18 and conceding 34. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 20 (favours Doncaster). The two sides have met already this season, with Doncaster running out victors by a single goal to nil. I expect a similar outcome here.

KIDDERMINSTER v Tamworth

After two away games on the bounce, Kidderminster return home this weekend looking to secure 3 points and maintain their play off position and hopes of promotion. They are clearly comfortable at home, boasting a record of W11 D3 L4, scoring 34 and conceding 18. They face a Tamworth side who have a decent away record in all honest, reading W6 D4 L7, scoring 25 and conceding 27. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 18 (favours Kidderminster). The head to head record between the two sides is strongly in favour of Kidderminster, with them not losing to Tamworth at all over the last 3 seasons, drawing 4 and winning 2, the most recent of which was this season in December where they won by 1 goal to nil away from home. I think Kidderminster’s drive for promotion coupled with the 7 points breathing space that Tamworth have over the relegation zone will lead to a home win here.

This Treble pays odds of 2.93

23 / 02 / 2013

Premiership

ARSENAL v Aston Villa

Despite losing to Blackburn in the FA Cup recently, I feel Arsenal will bounce back this weekend against a struggling Villa side. Their home form has been decent this year, with a record of W7 D3 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.53) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.38). Arsenal have won 3 of their last 4 at home in the league, whilst in their last 10 league games both home & away they have lost just 2, against Manchester City & Chelsea. It is obvious to most that Arsenal are no longer in the same category quality wise as the like of United, City & Chelsea, yet their form, and league position, suggests that they are still a decent side. I don’t really understand the big furor about them losing convincingly to Bayern Munich in CL recently as Bayern are a top quality side who could demolish anyone on their day. Villa have a been poor this season, struggling both home & away. When playing away from home as they are this weekend, Villa have a record of W2 D5 L6, scoring just 14 (Avg 1.07) and conceding 31 (Avg 2.38). This season the two sides played out a 0-0 draw in December, whilst last season Arsenal won the 3 games between the sides with scores of 3-0, 3-2, 1-2. Villa are clearly a weaker side this year, and I can see nothing other than an Arsenal win. If I had to predict a score for this game, I’d go Arsenal 2-0 or 2-1.

QPR v MAN UNITED

In their 2-1 win over Reading in the FA Cup on Monday SAF decided to rest a few of his first choice players, indicating both the squad depth he has at his disposal and the importance of the league. He knows after last season that they can not afford to slip up in games they should be winning, or their title rivals will look to seize the opportunity.

QPR lost 3-1 to United early in the season, and twice last season by 2-0 deficits. These head to head figures clearly show that United have no issue scoring past QPR, and despite their squad strengthening in the January transfer window I can see this match being no different. At home this season QPR have a record of W1 D7 L5, scoring a measly 8 goals (Avg 0.61) whilst conceding 19 (Avg 1.46). They face a United side who have been churning out results recently. Their away form record reads as W9 D2 L2, scoring 28 (Avg 2.15) and conceding 16 (Avg 1.23).

Wayne Rooney, Phil Jones and Paul Scholes appear to be unavailable for United this weekend, whilst QPR will be missing January signing Loic Remy. For United, these absentees should not be too much of an issue with their large squad, but QPR will desperately miss Remy and things look bleak for the West London club in terms of attacking threat.

I can’t see QPR finding the net in this game, so my score prediction would be United 0-2 or 0-3 winners.

Championship

BRIGHTON v Burnley

After their impressive midweek victory over table toppers Cardiff, I’m backing Brighton in this match. The Seagulls have a very decent home record this season having W6 D7 and L3, scoring 22 (Avg 1.38) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). They face a Burnley side who go into this game on the back of a 4 game winless run (LDLD). They have lost 50% of their away games this season, with a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 24 (Avg 1.5) and conceding 30 (Avg 1.88). The two sides have already met this season, where Brighton won the game by 3 goals to 1 away at Burnley. The last 3 games that Brighton have played a re the main reason I am I of the impression that they will be victorious in this game. As already mentioned they beat Cardiff midweek, and in their previous 2 games they drew 1-1 with Blackburn who went into that match on a 3 game winning run, and beat Hull at home who themselves are looking for promotion this season. Brighton will be further boosted by the fact that Boss Gus Poyet is able to welcome back three players who missed the midweek victory of Cardiff, with Ashley Barnes returning from a three-match ban, whilst fellow striker Craig Mackail-Smith is expected to shake off a knee problem and skipper Gordon Greer should be back in defence after a hamstring injury.

WATFORD v Derby

Despite the controversy surrounding Watford’s utilization of the loan system this season, there can be no arguments that they are playing some wonderful football and gaining results, which is in part down to the added quality that these additions have brought to their squad. Watford’s home form this season has been a little bit inconsistent, with a record of W8 D3 L5, scoring 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.13). They face a Derby side who are even more inconsistent away from home. Their away record reads as W3 D4 L9, scoring just 15 (Avg 0.93) and conceding 28 (Avg 1.75).

Watford approach this game having won 6 of their last 8 games, whilst Derby have won just 1 of their last 8. From Watford’s last 3 home games they have picked up 7 points, scoring 8 and conceding 3, whereas Derby have picked up 1 point from their last 3 away games, scoring 4 and conceding 6.  Early in the season the two sides met and Derby won 5-1 at home, but this was at a time when Watford’s squad had yet to gel and they are a different side now. I’d be surprised if Derby found the net, and can see Watford getting a couple of goals at least here what with the average goals per games of the sides. Another area where I feel Watford have an advantage going into this encounter is in the squad available to each manager. Mark O’Brien, James O’Connor and Shaun Barker all out with knee injuries, whilst Kieron Freeman expected to be out for around a month after suffering a twisted ankle against Bolton in midweek and Gareth Roberts will be serving the final game of a three-match ban, the Rams are down to the bare bones at the back. As if this wasn’t enough of a headache for Derby, influential midfielder Will Hughes remains a doubt for Saturday after missed his first game of the season in midweek after a groin strain forced him off during the goalless draw with Wolves last weekend. Watford on the other hand will have the option of welcoming back 19-goal top scorer Matej Vydra and midfielder Cristian Battocchio having rested the pair to the bench in their 2-0 away win over Ipswich in midweek.

League One

OLDHAM v Portsmouth

I fancy Oldham to secure the 3 points against Pompey in this fixture. They go into the game with a little bit of decent form behind them having sandwiched the last gasp 2-2 draw against Everton in the FA Cup with victories over MK Dons (3-1) and Stevenage (1-2). Pompey look doomed this season, with League Two football looking likely for next season especially due to their disastrous current run of form. They are winless in 21 games, having lost 16 and drew 5, and whilst 2 of these draws came in the last two games they have played, I still can not see them ending this barren run. Oldham can take confidence from the fact that they have beaten Pompey already this season 0-1 away from home, so should fancy their chances on home soil. With both sides finding themselves towards the bottom of the table it is no surprise that neither have a decent home/away record to compare. Oldham’s home record reads W4 D3 L8, scoring 16 (Avg 1.06) and conceding 19 (Avg 1.19). Pompey’s away record reads as W2 D5 L9, score 16 (Avg 1.0) conceded 31 (Avg 1.94). Despite both sides having a negative GD home/away, there is still a 12 goal difference between them.

League Two

NORTHAMPTON v Plymouth

Im backing a home win here primarily down to the fact that Northampton are dominant at home whilst Plymouth struggle when away. Northampton’s record at home stands at W11 D2 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.06) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). Plymouth’s away record stands at W3 D5 L7, scoring 15 (Avg 0.88) and conceding 22 (Avg 1.88). Northampton have won 5 in a row at home, a run which has seen them score 12 goals and concede just 3.

Plymouth did beat Northampton in the first fixture this season 3-2, yet I do not see them repeating this result this weekend. Aidy Boothroyd has given his squad the best possible chance of winning against the Pilgrims by resting several key players for the midweek exertions at Wimbledon.

With Northampton being solid at home they won’t want to miss out on this opportunity to take 3 points off a Plymouth side who don’t travel well. At odds of around evens Northampton look great value this weekend.

Conference Premier

KIDDERMINSTER v Alfreton

Kidderminster go into this game full of confidence looking for their 5^th win in a row as they attempt to maintain their promotion push. They have won 8 of their last 10 games, and more importantly have won 7 of their last 8 at home, a run which has seen them score 17 and concede 5. Their home record this season reads W9 D3 L4, scored 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceded 15 (Avg 0.94). When you consider that Kidderminster actually lost their first 3 home matches of the season, the record is even more impressive. They face an Alfreton side who are in danger of really being dragged into the relegation dog fight if they don’t get some good results together, sitting just 5 points clear of the drop zone. They have lost 4 of the last 5 games, conceding 10 goals in the process, whilst admirably scoring 6. Away from home they have been fairly decent compared to their home form, with their away record reading as W6 D5 L6, scoring 22 (Avg 1.29) and conceding 26 (Avg 1.53).

For Kidderminster they should feel that they have little to fear however, as over the last 2 seasons the sides have met 4 times, and Kidderminster have won 3 and drew 1 of the games.  The one time that the sides have met when Kidderminster have been the home side ended in a 3-1 win, whilst the GD for Kidderminster from these games is +6.

The momentum that Kidderminster have going into this match should see them run out comfortable winners, and should cover a -1 if you’re feeling lucky.

NEWPORT v Telford

Its 5^th versus bottom in this match, and a game which I feel should result in a home victory. Newport have been decent at home this season, W8 D4 L4, scoring 33 (2.06) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of two victories against decent Woking and Mansfield sides. In the previous game before these victories they drew 2-2 at Tamworth, and although some may see this result as a glimmer of hope for Telford, Tamworth’s point came courtesy of two late goals including a 93^rd minute penalty to seal the draw. Telford’s away form has been miserable, W3 D7 L6, scoring 21 (Avg 1.31) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of 4 defeats and a draw, whilst being winless in 15 league games. The draw they picked up against Tamworth in midweek will have taken its toll on the side with them having to come back 3 times to secure a 3-3 draw. These two sides have met already this season, a game which resulted in a 2-4 scoreline in favour of Newport.

Bet Summary

13 / 02 / 2013

Just doing a little piece on this one as its not the Champions League that my page focuses on. However, i just wanted to alert any followers to a Bet365 offer which is effectively free money.

 

The BBC have produced an interesting take on this encounter which i would recommend reading, here. In short they basically outline how they believe Real Madrid to have a short advantage despite the fact that they have been in relatively poor form of late. This is primarily due to the squad depth that they can call upon, and Mourinho’s personal record against Man United.

The Bet

Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake.

Recommendation:

Route 1:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on double chance – Madrid/United @ 1.20, this returns £60

Then place £50 on ‘draw’ in play during the game, currently @4.5, returning £225

This means if Madrid or United win you will make £10 profit

However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £125 profit.

Route 2:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on double chance – Madrid/Draw @ 1.18, this returns £59.09

Then place £50 on Manchester Utd to win in play during the game, currently @ 5.2, returning £260

This means if Madrid win or draw you will make £9.09 profit

However if United win you will make £160 profit.

Although Route 2 offers you the chance of higher profit, you have to choose what outcome you deem to be more likely. If you think there is more chance of the game being a draw, then choose Route 1, if you think there is more chance that United will win, Route 2 is the one for you.

Good Luck to All!!!!