27 / 08 / 2013 – Carling Cup

 

This small value treble that i have selected tonight offers what i believe to be a good chance of trebling your money.

If Norwich take the Carling Cup as an opportunity to freshen up their starting eleven, then we may well see a strike pairing of Johan Elmander & Gary Hooper. Together they should pose a threat that Bury are not used to and will struggle to handle. Bury do not have a good record in the cup, and have lost seven of their last nine League Cup matches against opponents from a higher division. Being a side that struggles to keep clean sheets, i can see Bury shipping a few tonight.

I fancy West Ham to do the business tonight with relative ease. They have home advantage which is a major factor for Sam Allardyces team who have made Upton Park a fortress. There will be the expected shuffle of players in the Hammer’s starting 11, although those coming in are of adequate quality to see them through. Stuart Downing will probably start to gain some match fitness, whilst bringing in the talented Ravel Morrison will ensure there is flair at the attacking end. Romanian international captain Razvan Rat should begin the game in defence for Big Sam’s men.

Carlisle are really struggling in the league, picking up there first point of the season at the weekend in a 1-1 draw with Colchester. After 4 games they have a GD of -12 having scored 2 and conceded 14. They face an unbeaten Leicester side who have been picking up decent results recently, battling to wins against Derby and Birmingham. If the Foxes can exploit their opponents defensive frailties, they could find themselves having a very enjoyable evening.

If you feel comfortable backing each of the bigger teams to do the business and cover a -1 handicap each then you can look to a 6x return on your stake. The best odds i could find for this were with Ladbrokes, who didnt have Leicester -1 available so i went with Leicester -0.5  -1 on the Asians.

2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction

For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.

As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really.  The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.

04 / 05 / 2013

TOTTENHAM v Southampton

Spurs’ home form is decent and with them chasing Champions League football they will expect to win this game against a Southampton side who’s away form is nothing to shout about. There is a home/away GD swing of 21 going into this encounter favouring Spurs. Southampton are pretty much safe, with it being very unlikely they will slip into the bottom 3 with just 4 games remaining now.

QPR v ARSENAL

Arsenal are still fighting hard for a top 4 spot and a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last week kept them as favourites to finish 4^th ahead of Tottenham.  They really cannot afford any slip ups and even if they do win all their remaining games it may not be enough if Spurs win all of theirs. Arsenal know they cannot afford to drop any points here and they really come out fired up against Manchester United last week, if they can play at that level again they’ll manage an easy victory.

WEST HAM (dnb) v Newcastle

Whilst West Ham are safe, i still expect them to going into this home match against Newcastle with sufficient hunger to put in a solid performance. Sam Allardyce, along with Kevin Nolan & Andy Carroll will relish the chance to face their former club and securing the 3 points will be top of their agenda. The Hammers are looking to move further into the top half in what has been a great first season back in the top flight, whereas Newcastle are right back into relegation trouble after a shocking performance against Liverpool last week. The spanking they got from Liverpool combined with losing the derby to Sunderland has left the Magpies in a horrible position amid rumours of dressing room unrest at St. James’. Their away record this season is awful, winning just 1 from 17 games, losing 10, whilst The Hammers have a home record of W8 D5 L4 which isn’t too bad. Going into this game there is a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring West Ham, and I can’t really look past West Ham taking at least 1 point from this game.

BOLTON v Blackpool

A win for Bolton in this Lancashire derby would seal a place in the play offs for the home sides. They are in a great run of form with just one defeat in 6 games, winning 4 and drawing 1. Being one of the form sides of the division has coincided with Leicester, Nott’m Forest and Middlesbrough all stuttering, meaning Bolton now have this opportunity to win a chance of promotion. Since moving to Bolton, manager Dougie Freedman has really sorted the team out and has impressed me. If you look at how Crystal Palace have struggled since his departure you can see the effect he has. Blackpool are safe from the drop, and have no doubt improved since Paul Ince took charge. Having little to play for in terms of the league could affect the team and i think that they may not match Bolton for desire and tempo in this match. Bolton’s home record reads as W14 D5 L3, whilst Blackpool’s away record stands at W6 D7 L9. Going into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 26 favouring Bolton. Improving non-stop over the past few months and it would be no surprise if they prove to be too much for Blackpool.

CHARLTON v Bristol

If the season had another 5 games to go then Charlton would harbour serious ambitions of a play off push, having lost just once in their last 10 games, winning 5 and drawing 4. At home they have a record of W7 D6 L9, which admittedly isn’t great. However, they have now won their last 3 home games and will be full of confidence. Bristol’s away record is a key reason as to why they have already been relegation, with it reading as W3 D4 L15. Heading into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 13 favouring Charlton, mainly down to Bristol’s inadequacy at both ends of the field. The last time Bristol won an away game was way back in December ’12 and I see no reason why they would suddenly produce a winning performance here. Charlton can recall a win over Bristol earlier in the season by two goals to nil for an added confidence boost if necessary

 

DERBY (dnb) v Millwall

I don’t envisage Millwall succumbing to relegation, despite not seeing them taking the 3 points in this one with 1 point realistically enough for them to survive being dragged into the drop zone. They face a Derby County side who have an admirable home record of W11 D7 L4, whilst Millwall’s away record stands at W7 D7 L8. Derby haven’t been in the best of form recently, yet Millwall have been worse still. Fortunately for the Lions it requires the trio of Sheff Wednesday ( v Middlesbrough), Peterborough ( v Crystal Palace) & Barnsley ( v Huddersfield) to all win if they themselves lose for them to be relegated. In my eyes the side doesn’t possess much quality and i can see Derby taking full advantage of being at home and coming away with the spoils here.

6 Fold – Odds 16.91

25 / 11 / 2012

Chelsea v Man City

It’s unlikely either side is going to dominate this match, with Chelsea losing just once at home while City remain unbeaten in away games. Chelsea have a +7 goal difference in their home games, scoring 14 and conceding 7, whilst City have a +2 goal difference in away matches after scoring just 7 goals but conceding 5. I’m curious to see whether Rafa Benitez tries to change Chelsea style or formation in his first match in charge, and even more interesting to see whether he can tap in Torres’ talents. With City’s forward line, they are always capable of finding the net, especially when they are up against David Luiz. In the last 3 seasons between the sides, out of the 6 games played 4 have had more than 2 goals in them, whilst 4 have also seen both teams score. If i had to pick a winner here, i’m looking more towards Chelsea due to home advantage and City’s relative poor form. What i do fancy is ‘both teams to score’ and O2.5 goals.

Southampton v Newcastle

Nigel Adkins Southampton are yet to achieve a clean sheet this season, so Demba Ba will surely be looking to add to his 8 goals.The Saints seem very weak defensively, and it would be no major surprise were they to concede. However, Newcastle are missing a few key players such as Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Collocini. These absentee’s will seriously hamper the Magpies attacking creativity, but also their solidarity at the back. Collocini’s calmness and influence will be missed, and with Southampton displaying this season that they can score goals, im inclined to go again for a ‘both teams to score’. Due to both sides frailties, i might take a little punt on O2.5 goals. As with the Chelsea v Man City match, i’m struggling to pick a winner here; Southampton are poor at home, Newcastle are yet to win away. I’ve got a feeling this could end up as a draw.

Tottenham v West Ham

I can see this London derby ending up as a low scoring affair, primarily due to both sides goal statistics this season. Spurs have scored 8 and conceded 8 at home, whilst the Hammer have scored 4 and conceded 6 in away matches. Recent form points towards West Ham in this one, having gone 3 unbeaten (1W & 2D) whereas Spurs have lost their last 3 matches. The most recent defeat was against Arsenal, where Adebayor got sent off, and his presence will be missed against a combative West Ham. From the Spurs matches i have seen, it appears they are trying too hard to play ‘football’, and need to adopt a more direct style to get some wins on the board. A striker pairing, i.e Adebayor and Defoe, would allow them to do this, but ABV’s reluctance, and obviously Adebayor’s absence, means that they will not be able to do this against the Hammers. In the midweek Europa league tie against Lazio i was amazed that Tottenham did lose. Hugo Lloris was outstanding in my opinion, but then we just don’t know whether the French stopper or evergreen Brad Friedel will be between the sticks. This rotation is ridiculous really, it does little to help the goalkeepers, and is even less help in allowing the defensive unit of GK and defence to form a real understanding between each other. Despite this, being of the opinion that West Ham’s strengths lie in set pieces, the height that Spurs have in their side defensively with the likes of Gallas, Vertonghen, & Caulker, i can see them nullifying West Ham’s key attacking route. Again, ‘both teams to score’ for me, making a nice treble for the day. If i had to pick a winner, i’m leaning toward West Ham to win and put even more pressure on ABV.

Summary:

Low Confidence

Southampton v Newcastle O2.5 Goals   Bet365 @ 1.75/1

Medium Confidence

Southampton v Newcastle Draw

Chelsea Win

West Ham Win

High Confidence

‘BTTS’ treble   BetFred @ 4.5/1