Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners
In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.
For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.
League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.
And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.
16 / 03 / 2013
MAN UTD v Reading
United have a near perfect home record this season of W13 D0 L1, scoring 38 and conceding 15. They have won 5 on the bounce, are unbeaten in 16 league games, and recently beat Reading away from home. Reading on the other hand have struggled to the extent that they have departed with manager McDermott. Away from home they have a record of W1 D2 L11, scoring 12 and conceding 27. These stats produce a home/away GD swing of 38 (favours United). After meeting twice this season already, United can recall 2 recent victories. As we approach the business end of the season i doubt Reading will fair aswell as they have against United this time round, despite the two losses. United seem to be more than keen to avoid needless losses and there is no sign of complacency within the camp. After their elimination from the Champions League to Real Madrid, and then the draw against Chelsea, SAF will want his side to get back to winning ways this weekend. I expect more than 1 United goal, and wouldnt be surprised if they kept a clean sheet. For this reason i will be backing United.
DONCASTER v Portsmouth
Doncaster will look to continue their promotion push against relegation threatened Pompey this weekend. They do not possess the most impressive home record, yet it is one that they can build on in this fixture, currently reading as W8 D4 L6, scoring 23 and conceding 19. They face a Pompey side who have given themselves some survival hope after 2 wins in their last 2 games, yet they go into this match on the back of a defeat to Leyton Orient. Doncaster have also won 2 of their last 3, but go into the game after a win over 7th placed Bournemouth. Other relevant recent results include wins over Hartlepool and Shrewsbury, both of whom have been struggling this season, with Hartlepool sitting just 1 place and 2 points above Pompey. Pompey’s away form has done them no favours this season, with their record reading as W3 D5 L11, scoring 18 and conceding 34. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 20 (favours Doncaster). The two sides have met already this season, with Doncaster running out victors by a single goal to nil. I expect a similar outcome here.
KIDDERMINSTER v Tamworth
After two away games on the bounce, Kidderminster return home this weekend looking to secure 3 points and maintain their play off position and hopes of promotion. They are clearly comfortable at home, boasting a record of W11 D3 L4, scoring 34 and conceding 18. They face a Tamworth side who have a decent away record in all honest, reading W6 D4 L7, scoring 25 and conceding 27. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 18 (favours Kidderminster). The head to head record between the two sides is strongly in favour of Kidderminster, with them not losing to Tamworth at all over the last 3 seasons, drawing 4 and winning 2, the most recent of which was this season in December where they won by 1 goal to nil away from home. I think Kidderminster’s drive for promotion coupled with the 7 points breathing space that Tamworth have over the relegation zone will lead to a home win here.
This Treble pays odds of 2.93
26 / 02 / 2013
After landing an 8-game accumulator at the weekend, i’m taking a chance with these midweek fixtures by backing 9 games on the 4-fold & 5-fold, with a small stake on the accumulator.
League One
Colchester v YEOVIL
Colchester home form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 25
Yeovil away form – W8 D2 L6, Scored 26 & Conceded 24
Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Yeovil)
Colchester recent form (5 Games) – WLWLL
Yeovil recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Yeovil Wins = 4 Draws = 2 Colchester Wins = 0
* I think both teams could score here, but Yeovil should edge it, as the H2H record suggests. 2-1 would be no surprise.
Portsmouth v MK DONS
Portsmouth home form – W3 D3 L11, Scored 18 & Conceded 26
MK Dons away form – W4 D6 L6, Scored 19 & Conceded 19
Home / Away GD Swing – 8 (Favours MK Dons)
Portsmouth recent form (5 Games) – LLDDL
MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LLLDD
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Portsmouth Wins = 0 Draws = 1 MK Dons Wins = 0
* Despite MK Dons being in poor form themselves, I feel they have been underperforming. Against a Pompey side in freefall they should gain a win.
SHEFF UTD v Leyton Orient
Sheff Utd home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 27 & Conceded 17
Leyton Orient away form – W6 D2 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 23
Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Sheff Utd)
Sheff Utd recent form (5 Games) – LWWWW
Leyton Orient recent form (5 Games) – DWWLL
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Sheff Utd Wins = 2 Draws = 1 Leyton Orient Wins = 0
* Sheff Utd have put together a strong run of form over the last few weeks to reignite their promotion hopes. They edged out the last encounter 0-1 away from home and I see them winning this encounter on home soil too.
SWINDON v Bury
Swindon home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 10
Bury away form – W2 D7 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 35 (Favours Swindon)
Swindon recent form (5 Games) – DWDWD
Bury recent form (5 Games) – WDLLL
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Swindon Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Bury Wins = 0
* Despite not having Di Canio at the helm, Swindon maintained their 13 game unbeaten run last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Preston. I think against a poor Bury side who have lost 3 on the bounce they will pick up the win, perhaps with a clean sheet.
League Two
GILLINGHAM v Oxford
Gillingham home form – W8 D4 L5, Scored 30 & Conceded 17
Oxford away form – W6 D2 L9, Scored 21 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 21 (Favours Gillingham)
Gillingham recent form (5 Games) – LWDWW
Oxford recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 2 Draws = 3 Oxford Wins = 0
* Gillingham have lost just 2 in 10, and go into this on the back of 2 wins, whilst Oxford have recently turned around a poor run with a Win and a Draw. Oxford have struggled against Gillingham over recent seasons and I expect the same in this game. Over 2.5 Goals would be my side bet in this game.
NORTHAMPTON v Bristol Rovers
Northampton home form – W12 D2 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 14
Bristol Rovers away form – W4 D6 L7, Scored 20 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Northampton)
Northampton recent form (5 Games) – LWWDW
Bristol Rovers recent form (5 Games) – DWWLD
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Oxford Wins = 2
* Northampton’s home record is sublime, whilst their opponents away record is below par. Despite Bristol winning in terms of H2H, the strength of Northampton at home sways this for me.
BURTON v Morecambe
Burton home form – W12 D3 L2, Scored 37 & Conceded 17
Morecambe away form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 22 & Conceded 22
Home / Away GD Swing – 20 (Favours Burton)
Burton recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW
Morecambe recent form (5 Games) – WDWWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Burton Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Morecambe Wins = 1
* This will be a close game for me, which leads me to think Draw No Bet or Burton +0 on the Asian Handicap will be a better option. Morecambe have been in decent form, yet I believe home advantage and the GD record has the ability to provide the decisive factor in this game.
Conference Premier
GRIMSBY v Ebbsfleet
Grimsby home form – W11 D3 L3, Scored 33 & Conceded 12
Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L8, Scored 17 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Grimsby)
Grimsby recent form (5 Games) – WDWWL
Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – LLWDW
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Grimsby Wins = 1 Draws = 1 Ebbsfleet Wins = 1
* Promotion chasing Grimsby host relegation battling Ebbsfleet here. A solid home side faces up against a struggling away team, and despite Ebbsfleet improving of late, I see Grimsby being relatively easy winners here. If they were to cover the -1 handicap I would not be surprised.
Barrow v WREXHAM
Barrow home form – W3 D5 L7, Scored 15 & Conceded 25
Wrexham away form – W9 D5 L3, Scored 25 & Conceded 13
Home / Away GD Swing – 22 (Favours Wrexham)
Barrow recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD
Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Barrow Wins = 1 Draws = 1 Wrexham Wins = 3
* Table toppers Wrexham visit relegation threatened Barrow in what should be a relatively straight forward victory. They have a solid away form to build on, and have not faced much trouble against Barrow over recent seasons.
Betting Summary
Extra
FA Cup
EVERTON v Oldham
Might not be placing a bet on this game but have taken an interest in it nonetheless. Having played Saturday – Tuesday – Saturday – Tuesday, I feel that weary legs could prove to be Oldham’s undoing in this game. Everton boss David Moyes will be looking, and expecting, and immediate reaction from his side after the weekend’s late loss to Norwich. Oldham have been poor away from home this year, with a record of W5 D3 L9, scoring 18 and conceding 27, whereas Everton are solid enough at home with a record of W8 D3 L3, scoring 22 and conceding 16, to comfortable, in theory, win this. There is little value in backing Everton outright, so I’m envisaging that the -1 handicap should be covered should you fancy a punt.
Odds – 1.53
23 / 02 / 2013
Premiership
ARSENAL v Aston Villa
Despite losing to Blackburn in the FA Cup recently, I feel Arsenal will bounce back this weekend against a struggling Villa side. Their home form has been decent this year, with a record of W7 D3 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.53) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.38). Arsenal have won 3 of their last 4 at home in the league, whilst in their last 10 league games both home & away they have lost just 2, against Manchester City & Chelsea. It is obvious to most that Arsenal are no longer in the same category quality wise as the like of United, City & Chelsea, yet their form, and league position, suggests that they are still a decent side. I don’t really understand the big furor about them losing convincingly to Bayern Munich in CL recently as Bayern are a top quality side who could demolish anyone on their day. Villa have a been poor this season, struggling both home & away. When playing away from home as they are this weekend, Villa have a record of W2 D5 L6, scoring just 14 (Avg 1.07) and conceding 31 (Avg 2.38). This season the two sides played out a 0-0 draw in December, whilst last season Arsenal won the 3 games between the sides with scores of 3-0, 3-2, 1-2. Villa are clearly a weaker side this year, and I can see nothing other than an Arsenal win. If I had to predict a score for this game, I’d go Arsenal 2-0 or 2-1.
QPR v MAN UNITED
In their 2-1 win over Reading in the FA Cup on Monday SAF decided to rest a few of his first choice players, indicating both the squad depth he has at his disposal and the importance of the league. He knows after last season that they can not afford to slip up in games they should be winning, or their title rivals will look to seize the opportunity.
QPR lost 3-1 to United early in the season, and twice last season by 2-0 deficits. These head to head figures clearly show that United have no issue scoring past QPR, and despite their squad strengthening in the January transfer window I can see this match being no different. At home this season QPR have a record of W1 D7 L5, scoring a measly 8 goals (Avg 0.61) whilst conceding 19 (Avg 1.46). They face a United side who have been churning out results recently. Their away form record reads as W9 D2 L2, scoring 28 (Avg 2.15) and conceding 16 (Avg 1.23).
Wayne Rooney, Phil Jones and Paul Scholes appear to be unavailable for United this weekend, whilst QPR will be missing January signing Loic Remy. For United, these absentees should not be too much of an issue with their large squad, but QPR will desperately miss Remy and things look bleak for the West London club in terms of attacking threat.
I can’t see QPR finding the net in this game, so my score prediction would be United 0-2 or 0-3 winners.
Championship
BRIGHTON v Burnley
After their impressive midweek victory over table toppers Cardiff, I’m backing Brighton in this match. The Seagulls have a very decent home record this season having W6 D7 and L3, scoring 22 (Avg 1.38) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). They face a Burnley side who go into this game on the back of a 4 game winless run (LDLD). They have lost 50% of their away games this season, with a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 24 (Avg 1.5) and conceding 30 (Avg 1.88). The two sides have already met this season, where Brighton won the game by 3 goals to 1 away at Burnley. The last 3 games that Brighton have played a re the main reason I am I of the impression that they will be victorious in this game. As already mentioned they beat Cardiff midweek, and in their previous 2 games they drew 1-1 with Blackburn who went into that match on a 3 game winning run, and beat Hull at home who themselves are looking for promotion this season. Brighton will be further boosted by the fact that Boss Gus Poyet is able to welcome back three players who missed the midweek victory of Cardiff, with Ashley Barnes returning from a three-match ban, whilst fellow striker Craig Mackail-Smith is expected to shake off a knee problem and skipper Gordon Greer should be back in defence after a hamstring injury.
WATFORD v Derby
Despite the controversy surrounding Watford’s utilization of the loan system this season, there can be no arguments that they are playing some wonderful football and gaining results, which is in part down to the added quality that these additions have brought to their squad. Watford’s home form this season has been a little bit inconsistent, with a record of W8 D3 L5, scoring 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.13). They face a Derby side who are even more inconsistent away from home. Their away record reads as W3 D4 L9, scoring just 15 (Avg 0.93) and conceding 28 (Avg 1.75).
Watford approach this game having won 6 of their last 8 games, whilst Derby have won just 1 of their last 8. From Watford’s last 3 home games they have picked up 7 points, scoring 8 and conceding 3, whereas Derby have picked up 1 point from their last 3 away games, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Early in the season the two sides met and Derby won 5-1 at home, but this was at a time when Watford’s squad had yet to gel and they are a different side now. I’d be surprised if Derby found the net, and can see Watford getting a couple of goals at least here what with the average goals per games of the sides. Another area where I feel Watford have an advantage going into this encounter is in the squad available to each manager. Mark O’Brien, James O’Connor and Shaun Barker all out with knee injuries, whilst Kieron Freeman expected to be out for around a month after suffering a twisted ankle against Bolton in midweek and Gareth Roberts will be serving the final game of a three-match ban, the Rams are down to the bare bones at the back. As if this wasn’t enough of a headache for Derby, influential midfielder Will Hughes remains a doubt for Saturday after missed his first game of the season in midweek after a groin strain forced him off during the goalless draw with Wolves last weekend. Watford on the other hand will have the option of welcoming back 19-goal top scorer Matej Vydra and midfielder Cristian Battocchio having rested the pair to the bench in their 2-0 away win over Ipswich in midweek.
League One
OLDHAM v Portsmouth
I fancy Oldham to secure the 3 points against Pompey in this fixture. They go into the game with a little bit of decent form behind them having sandwiched the last gasp 2-2 draw against Everton in the FA Cup with victories over MK Dons (3-1) and Stevenage (1-2). Pompey look doomed this season, with League Two football looking likely for next season especially due to their disastrous current run of form. They are winless in 21 games, having lost 16 and drew 5, and whilst 2 of these draws came in the last two games they have played, I still can not see them ending this barren run. Oldham can take confidence from the fact that they have beaten Pompey already this season 0-1 away from home, so should fancy their chances on home soil. With both sides finding themselves towards the bottom of the table it is no surprise that neither have a decent home/away record to compare. Oldham’s home record reads W4 D3 L8, scoring 16 (Avg 1.06) and conceding 19 (Avg 1.19). Pompey’s away record reads as W2 D5 L9, score 16 (Avg 1.0) conceded 31 (Avg 1.94). Despite both sides having a negative GD home/away, there is still a 12 goal difference between them.
League Two
NORTHAMPTON v Plymouth
Im backing a home win here primarily down to the fact that Northampton are dominant at home whilst Plymouth struggle when away. Northampton’s record at home stands at W11 D2 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.06) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). Plymouth’s away record stands at W3 D5 L7, scoring 15 (Avg 0.88) and conceding 22 (Avg 1.88). Northampton have won 5 in a row at home, a run which has seen them score 12 goals and concede just 3.
Plymouth did beat Northampton in the first fixture this season 3-2, yet I do not see them repeating this result this weekend. Aidy Boothroyd has given his squad the best possible chance of winning against the Pilgrims by resting several key players for the midweek exertions at Wimbledon.
With Northampton being solid at home they won’t want to miss out on this opportunity to take 3 points off a Plymouth side who don’t travel well. At odds of around evens Northampton look great value this weekend.
Conference Premier
KIDDERMINSTER v Alfreton
Kidderminster go into this game full of confidence looking for their 5th win in a row as they attempt to maintain their promotion push. They have won 8 of their last 10 games, and more importantly have won 7 of their last 8 at home, a run which has seen them score 17 and concede 5. Their home record this season reads W9 D3 L4, scored 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceded 15 (Avg 0.94). When you consider that Kidderminster actually lost their first 3 home matches of the season, the record is even more impressive. They face an Alfreton side who are in danger of really being dragged into the relegation dog fight if they don’t get some good results together, sitting just 5 points clear of the drop zone. They have lost 4 of the last 5 games, conceding 10 goals in the process, whilst admirably scoring 6. Away from home they have been fairly decent compared to their home form, with their away record reading as W6 D5 L6, scoring 22 (Avg 1.29) and conceding 26 (Avg 1.53).
For Kidderminster they should feel that they have little to fear however, as over the last 2 seasons the sides have met 4 times, and Kidderminster have won 3 and drew 1 of the games. The one time that the sides have met when Kidderminster have been the home side ended in a 3-1 win, whilst the GD for Kidderminster from these games is +6.
The momentum that Kidderminster have going into this match should see them run out comfortable winners, and should cover a -1 if you’re feeling lucky.
NEWPORT v Telford
Its 5th versus bottom in this match, and a game which I feel should result in a home victory. Newport have been decent at home this season, W8 D4 L4, scoring 33 (2.06) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of two victories against decent Woking and Mansfield sides. In the previous game before these victories they drew 2-2 at Tamworth, and although some may see this result as a glimmer of hope for Telford, Tamworth’s point came courtesy of two late goals including a 93rd minute penalty to seal the draw. Telford’s away form has been miserable, W3 D7 L6, scoring 21 (Avg 1.31) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of 4 defeats and a draw, whilst being winless in 15 league games. The draw they picked up against Tamworth in midweek will have taken its toll on the side with them having to come back 3 times to secure a 3-3 draw. These two sides have met already this season, a game which resulted in a 2-4 scoreline in favour of Newport.
Bet Summary
08 / 12 / 2012
SWANSEA v Norwich – Medium Confidence
After their impressive late win against Arsenal in their last fixture, Swansea will be looking to build on the confidence gained in that win and pick up another 3 points against Norwich. Despite beating one of the ‘big boys’, if we can still call the Gunners that, Michael Laudrup’s side will not expect the Canaries to be a pushover. The Norwich side who visit The Liberty this Saturday are unbeaten in an impressive 8 Premier League games- Winning 4 and Drawing 4 in this run. Despite this, they are still to find 3 points on their travels, and it is this statistic specifically which leads me to believe that Swansea, who themselves are on a decent run being unbeaten in 6 (W3 & D3) who will come out victorious. They have been beaten just once at home this season, to an early season Everton side, who we all know were more than impressive. The Canaries shouldn’t expect to see too much of the ball on Saturday with Swansea liking to dominate possession. If Norwich try to match their opponents game, they will be 2nd best. This may lead to them looking for Holt as a direct outlet, in which case they will need to be quick to surround him with support. The benefit of Swansea’s style is that is drains opponents through sheer work rate, which I believe will cause Norwich to tire and struggle to get the numbers forward. I don’t see a high scoring match, maybe a win by a single goal, as although Michu is looking more and more dangerous, Bassong at CB for Norwich has really settled in well and got the Norwich defence organised. Regardless, it might be worthwhile looking into Michu anytime, or even Michu anytime & Swansea win, due to the Spaniards good form and ability to finish. While Swansea have the better recent form, Noriwch actually come out trumps when looking at the head to head record between the two sides. If you combine Swansea’s home games with Norwich’s away games this season, out of a cumulative total of 16 games, 9 have been draws.
Despite manager Laudrup instilling an effective, attacking philosophy, i do not expect his side to find the net too often this weekend, primarily because of the aforementioned Norwich backline, but also making it a difficult task is an unenviable injury list. Whilst Kyle Bartley, Danny Graham, Hernandez, Neil Taylor, Wayne Routledge and Michel Vorm are sidelined with various injuries and are expected to remain on the treatment table for the time being, most of the team is expected to be the same, which could lead to fatigue reducing the effectiveness of players who could do with a break. However, these players have proved in previous games such as against Arsenal, West Brom, Liverpool & Newcastle, in which the injury list looked similar, that they can perform, and produced results.
Due to these stats and circumstances, I’d take either Swansea ‘draw no bet’, or Swansea/draw ‘double chance’ here, and it is when including the draw possibility in the bet that I will class this as a ‘medium confidence’ bet.
LEICESTER v Barnsley – High Confidence
Leicester at home is an easy choice for me this weekend, as they have won 7, drew 1 and lost 1 of their home games this season. Such a record should not be ignored, especially when they are facing a Barnsley side who have struggled away from home, posting a record of W2 D1 and L7. It seems that Home advantaged will play a key part in this tie, which may be the catalyst for a Leicester win by a few goals. I say this as in Leicester’s home games they have scored 24 times, conceding just 7, giving them a GD of +17. No fewer than 5 of their home victories have been achieved by at least a 2 goal margin. Barnsley meanwhile have an away game goal difference of -8 due to scoring 11 and conceding 18. In 4 of their away defeats in the league, they have lost by 2 goals or more. Over the last 2 seasons it is Leicester who take the head to head, but Barnsley can take heart from taking 4 points from their opponents last season, winning on Leicester turf. After looking at highlights of this game, it is glaringly obvious that Vaz Te, now at West Ham in the Premier League, found lots of joy against then Leicester defender Lee Peltier, who is now at Leeds United. Obviously neither of these players will be involved in the match, indicating that they are now different sides, and I anticipate a different result. Going into the match, the Tykes are winless in 9 games, and I can’t see them claiming 3 points in this tie.
Against opponents such as Leicester City, who are currently placed in the top 6 of the Championship, Barnsley have managed to collect an average of 0.8 points in 5 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the top 6 this season Barnsley has collected 0 points on average in 2 matches. A Leicester win for me, and I’m likely to back them at -1 as well. I can see Nugent getting amongst the goals, so Nugent anytime, Nugent antime & Leicester win are side bet options.
TRANMERE v Portsmouth – Medium Confidence
I haven’t backed Tranmere recently, justified by them being winless in 3 games. However, they still sit top of the table in League 1, and for me it really is a matter of time before their early season form returns. This could be the weekend that they get that win which could kick start a run of form, as they face a Pompey side who are winless in 7, losing 6 of those games. Tranmere Rovers have played 10 League One matches this season at their home ground Prenton Park, where they have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 matches. This ranks them as the 4th best performing home team in the league. Their opponents Portsmouth have played 10 League One matches this season away from home. On away trips, Portsmouth have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 matches. This ranks Pompey 20th in away team performance in the League. Whilst Tranmere have scored 18 home goals this season, Pompey have conceded 18 when away. Furthermore, Tranmere have scored 2 or more in 11 of their league games this season, whilst Pompey have conceded 2 or more in 11 of their games. Due to this, I will be backing a Tranmere win, Tranmere at -1, & O2.5 goals.
BRADFORD v Torquay – Low Confidence
This is an intriguing match in League Two, with Bradford sitting in 6th position welcoming Torquay, who find themselves in 8th position, to Valley Parade. Such a match up of two teams who are enjoying decent seasons should produce a decent game, and although I feel it will be close, I’m anticipating Bradford will edge it. I’m wary that Bradford had a tough match midweek in the JPT away to Port Vale which could have sapped energy from the Bradford players. However, the 2-0 away win that they picked up in this game will breed confidence in the side. As the Home side, Bradford have W6 D2 L2 this season, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 6. It is Torquay’s away record which is leading me to believe that they will lose this game, having W2 D4 and L4 of their away games. Clearly they have found wins difficult to come by, failing to convert draws into wins, and through looking at their statistics it is obvious why. They have managed to score just 8 times in 10 away games, and if it wasn’t for an enviable defensive record of conceding 9 goals there can be no doubt they would have lost more away games than they have. Unfortunately for Torquay, as I have already mentioned, Bradford have a solid defence at home, leading to me believe that Torquay could struggle to score on Saturday. After looking at Bradford’s home fixtures, 14 of their home goals came in 4 games, indicating that they have infact struggled to find the net in several of their home matches. I will be backing Bradford in this match, but suggest putting them as ‘draw no bet’ or on a ‘double chance’. I will also look into U2.5 goals. However, if i had to choose a Bradford player to get on the scoresheet, it would be Nahki Wells, who has already bagged 14 goals this season. As with the other games, Wells anytime, Wells anytime & Bradford Win could be looked into. This is a low confidence bet, so again, ‘draw no bet’ and ‘double chance’ options could be explored.
Other games which i looked into but decided not to recommend, which i will be adding to those i have suggested to make a larger accumulator and 5-fold from, include:
Aston Villa v STOKE
Ipswich v MILLWALL
Yeovil v NOTTS COUNTY
Plymouth v YORK
A value 5-fold of teams i feel could get something from their games which i feel the odds don’t necessarily indicate include: West Brom, Norwich, Torquay, Crewe, Doncaster. If you were to put these in a 5-fold accumulator of ‘draw no bet’ selections you can get odds of around 550/1. So i’ll try my look at a small stake double, treble, quad and 5-fold combo. You never know!!
Summary
Main 4fold – BetVictor
Main 4-fold (Draw no bet) – SkyBet
Alternate Value 5-fold (Draw no bet) – BetVictor
8 Game Accumulator (w/ Multiples) – BetVictor
Leicester -1 – LadBrokes
Nugent Anytime – Boylesports
Tranmere -1 – PaddyPower
Tranmere v Portsmouth O2.5 – SportingBet
Nahki Wells (Bradford) Anyime – Coral
24 / 11 / 2012
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
‘What a weird player Walcott is, an infuriating mix of the unplayable and the unfathomable’.
In the Guardians coverage of the North London derby last weekend, they used the above quote to aptly describe Theo Walcott. However, the same notion can also be used to illustrate the maddening reality of the Gunners inability to produce a display in which they control and dominate a game without it being littered with silly mistakes. Against Spurs the scoreline would suggest they deserved the result, which I can’t argue they did. However, prior to Adebayor reducing the game to little more than a contest, and on a few occasions post-sending off, the Arsenal backline was noticeably positional inept. Whether this was down to Vermaelen playing at LB as opposed to centrally, or due to Mertesacker being slower than a wet weekend, is debatable. Koscielny’s awareness does rescue the Gunners when the beanpole Germans deficiencies (Yes, German’s do have deficiencies) rear their ugly head. If big Per wants to learn about the importance of positioning I’d recommend having a quick read of Sun Tzu’s: The Art of War. The ancient Chinese military strategist outlines how positional awareness gives you a framework for understanding your strategic position. It also enables you to see your position as part of a larger environment surrounded by other positions. You can understand which aspects of your position are secure and which are the most dynamic and likely to change. Mertesacker sometimes seems oblivious to the location of his team-mates in relation to his own, which leads to attacks running in behind and offside traps being pointless. I can imagine one Pascal Cygan sitting in a French villa somewhere chuckling to himself as he watches with bemusement as his version 2.0 struggles in the manner he became known for. But I can’t lay the blame solely at the feet of the German because I honestly believe that he has improved drastically when compared to last season. He was dominant against Schalke, and I’m sure that many an Arsenal fan are relieved at having an aerially competent CB for a change. I actually feel that he is not a leader, and needs someone alongside him, as in right next to him, to hold his hand and whisper in his ear throughout the game. Koscielny is not this man – My view is that the Verminator of 2011/2012 would be perfect. Not one to escape this rant, Vermaelen really needs to pull his finger out for me. The Belgium is capable of better, more composed performances despite playing out of position at LB. He seems to have some sort of aura of self belief which is manifesting itself into over-confidence. You’re a good footballer Thomas, yes, but you’re no Messi, nor are you a Kieran Gibbs (the sooner Ashley Cole’s less than perfect clone returns the better in my eyes; Vermaelen shifts central, Koscielny takes a seat, organisation is restored – Simples). Perhaps he knows that Wenger’s other option is to put Andre Santos there instead. Not really a performance inducing kick up the back side is it? I’ve primarily concentrated on the suspect defending of Arsenal, largely ignoring the fine attacking play, which they have proven that they are capable of. Cazorla is a beautiful footballer. Not as beautiful as Giroud though. As Cazorla chisels through defenses, Giroud admires his cheekbones. The trio of Wilshere, Arteta and Cazorla will inevitable grow and control matches and create chances, which I feel will see Giroud bag a respectable goal tally, and silence those calling for his head after less than 20 games. Yes, he has not set the league on fire. Give the guy time. Please. This polarization of Arsenal’s line-up (Attacking Genius ~ Dodgy Defence) has made them a regular fixture in many a ‘both teams to score’ list this season, and once more they may well be for me this coming weekend. I can visualize Benteke shrugging off each and every one of the backline if given the opportunity. But equally its more than feasible to see Cazorla and Co. pulling the Villa kids around like puppets. And this is where Walcott could pop up as he does. A darting run in from the right to latch onto a through ball from any one of the aforementioned trio, before his scuffed effort finds a way into the net. Queue his post-match interview in which he will inevitably state how much he 1) loves Arsenal, 2) wants to ‘get something sorted’, and 3) really believes he can play as a striker. Maybe you can Theo, maybe you can. But in the mean time, why not just concentrate on doing what you are asked to do? It really isn’t that bad a job is it. Walcott seems like a lovely fellow. He’s comes across as well spoken and down to earth. But Arsene Wenger is a footballing genius. If he thinks you are good enough to play as a CF for Arsenal FC, you will play as CF for Arsenal FC. He clearly feels Walcott is not ready to, or is not good enough, to take this role in the side. As such an integral part of the first 11, a CF is required to link up play and be consistent in its threat. If you had to name a few of Walcott’s weaknesses as a footballer I’m sure many would say his passing / decisions / consistency. Theo has no doubt shown some levels of improvement in these areas, his crossing in particular has clearly benefitted from work in all three of these. This indicates that he is still capable of improving, so why not show some loyalty, and continue to work hard. If you’re good enough, it will come. If you’re not, Zaha will come. Maybe. Regardless, perhaps it would be better, more productive, safer, to play out wide against Villa. Other than the virtual opportunity I created for him earlier, getting munched by Villa’s very own BFG Ron Vlaar is nobodies cup of tea (Arsenal’s last trophy, Anyone?).
Ping Ping Ping is the order of the day for me. Stretch the Villa kids and the gaps will come. I promise. An Arsenal win, but they might well concede.
Sunderland v WEST BROM
No more boing boing for the Baggies…
It is possible that after Sunderland’s 3-1 win over Fulham that their goalscoring deficiencies have been eradicated. Stephen Sessegnon actually produced glimpses, not least his fine goal, of the player we know he is and Steven Fletcher continued to justify his hefty price tag. However, against 10men for the majority of the match, this should be expected of a team with the aspirations that Sunderland have. Even after Fulham lost Brede Hangeland, I still felt that they could get something out of the game, and despite this not materializing, I didn’t see enough from Sunderland in terms of controlling the game to suggest that they will be able to topple an in from West Brom this weekend.
Steve Clarke has got his side playing the kind of football that you would assume that Martin O’Neill wants his team to. Impressively, over the last couple of season the Baggies have managed to assemble a squad of players of the caliber which provide more than ample competition to the first team. For me, this is one of the primary reasons why the Midlands outfit are currently flying high. Having Odemwinge back amongst the goals is a further boost, whilst Shane Long is a constant thorn in any opposition’s side.
Recent history between the two sides definitely points towards a West Brom victory. Over the last 2 season, the Baggies have won 3 and drew one of the matches, the most recent result being a 4-0 home win. League form between the two sides also steers my betting compass towards an away win, with West Brom having 3 confidence boosting wins on the bounce, whereas Sunderland, prior to beating 10 man Fulham, had lost their previous two game.
Goals have obviously been an issue for the Black Cats this season. In their 4 home matches they have scored just 3, but equally have conceded just 3. Away from home, West Brom have score 5 and conceded 8 in their 5 games. This leads me to believe that the match won’t be a high scoring one, but if 1 side is to edge it, id opt for West Brom. So I’d recommend West Brom on the AH +0.5.
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Addition: As it is the early kick off im sure to be watching this one, so i’ve revisited the stats for another look to see whats available.
As Sunderland have experienced major difficulties winning at home, whilst West Brom have just one away win, a draw isn’t out of the question here. I very rarely bet on draws as a result, unless its incorporated in a double chance bet. However, my suggestion of West Brom on the +0.5 AH could work alongside a draw in this one. Sunderland’s goalscoring troubles are well documented, yet they actually have the second best home defensive record in the league, having only conceded an enviable three goals. A goal shy encounter would not be a shock really, and could be worth a small stake.
MIDDLESBROUGH v Bristol City
As far as I can see, there are no statistics which would lead anyone to back Bristol…they’ll probably win.
These two sides could hardly be further apart. Boro, despite losing to Cardiff in their last match, currently occupy 3rd spot after winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their last 10 games. Bristol have drew 2 and lost 8 of their last 10. The further you look into the match the bleaker it appears to be for Bristol. In the last 3 matches between the sides, they have 1 draw and 2 defeats, one of which was a 0-4 home defeat. Then you can take a peek at the home & away records between the sides. As the home side, Middlesbrough have W6 D1 L1 this season in the league, scoring 17 and conceding 9. As the away team, Bristol have W1 D1 L6 – the complete opposite to their opponents. Within these matches they have scored a pitiful 6 goals, and conceded 13. You can only imagine what the confidence within their squad is like at the moment. The players themselves must be dreading facing a decent footballing side such as ‘Boro.
If they are to try and frustrate their opponents and try to snatch a result, the player I would note as being key to Middlesbrough’s play is Emmanuel Ledesma. When ‘Boro manager Tony Mowbray was at West Brom, he managed to get them out of this league through playing attractive, attacking football. It seems that his style of play is finally bearing fruit at the Riverside, and key to this in my eyes is Ledesma. Having only seen the guy play on the limited highlights of ‘The Football League Show’, my opinion is based upon what are essentially ‘the best bits’. But he appears to be a fine footballer, has a decent delivery, is creative but also keeps things ticking over by cycling the ball nicely. It would not surprise me to see Bristol adopt a 4-5-1 formation to try and nullify the ‘Boro midfield. I’d like to see Ishmael Miller, or former Coventry striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, start up top for ‘Boro. Both of them have a physical presence which I feel would really rattle the nerves of a clearly fragile defence. When watching the highlights of Middlesbrough’s last match, I noticed that Ledesma knew who to whip in a cross, especially from dead ball situations, which could work to a big man’s benefit.
I’m likely to go with a Boro win -1. The odds should be better than expected due to the defeat they suffered against Cardiff, even though they outplayed the eventual victors according to several reports I have read.
Sheff Weds v LEICESTER
The cheetah is the fastest land animal, capable of running at speeds of 70mph. No, actually Mr. Attenborough, it’s Lloyd Dyer.
After staying up to make sure I got to see Coventry’s five goals against Hartlepool, one thing that I notice throughout the programme was that the majority of the goals scored in the football league that weekend were aided in one way or another by some form of poor defending. It was actually unbelievable that the level of defending on show from Championship level down to League Two had been so poor. Obviously a certain percentage of goals every week will be courtesy of a defensive boo-boo, but it was glaringly obvious that a higher than normal proportion of the weekends goal tally could be attributed to this. However, due to this blatancy, those that were the culmination of fine team play or individual brilliance were also more apparent. The goal, and in fact the performance, that caught my eye was that of Leicester’s Lloyd Dyer. This guy has got some serious speed. Like, he’s really, really fast. It was this trait that alone won the penalty for Leicester’s first goal. For his own strike, Leicester 3rd which in effect killed the game, he attacked the Ipswich full back at such speed, whilst keeping the ball under close control, that the outcome was nigh on inevitable. He resembled an on form Antonio Valencia; bursting with acceleration, sustainable speed, direct and decisive plays. These attributes were utilised again for the fourth goal before sliding the ball across goal for a sitter that his colleague could not miss, and once more for the sixth. I highly recommend trying to find the highlights of the game to fully appreciate his display. Against Sheffield Wednesday I can see Dyer being pivotal in the outcome of the game. Wednesday are likely to play Lewis Buxton at RB, but as honest a player as he may be, he doesn’t have the pace to compete with that of Dyer’s. I can see him being in for a torrid time. After a 4-game winless run which has seen the Foxes drop a few places, I can see the 6-0 demolition job of Ipswich being the catalyst for a good run of form. It shouldn’t be out of the question, as before coming up against Cardiff on December 22nd they have 5 win-able games. Wednesday’s home form is unimpressive but could be worse, having won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 (10/24 points). Having scored 11 and conceded 14, its fair to say that it is their defence that has been letting them down – Blackburn currently sit in 5th place with a home record of W5 D1 L2, scoring 9 and conceding 6. A tight backline can go a long way in any league. Leicester haven’t really travelled well this year, with a record of W2 D2 L4. They have managed just 9 goals away from home, conceding 10. But the impetus of a 6-0 win should not be ignored. Confidence will be high in the away dressing room, whereas every morale sapping defeat that Wednesday suffer will inevitably eat away at the self-belief that boss Dave Jones continually tried to instill in his side by irrepressibly claiming that “there’s no team in this division better than us. They might have a bit more composure in front of goal but that’s it”. Stop it Dave, just stop it, as it would seem that there’s 20 teams currently better than you in this division; 4 wins from 17 games is fooling nobody, especially when 2 of those came way back in August. Away win, and we could see the net bulge a few times.
Bury v BOURNEMOUTH
Sometimes the grass doesn’t turn out to be greener…
Eddie Howe could be to Bournemouth, as SAF is to United. Potentially, in relative turns, at least. After 100 matches at Bournemouth, the highlight of which was promotion to League One, Howe became manager of Burnley. He saw it as an upgrade. He traded in the girl he loved for one which seemed more attractive, and for a while it went okay. But then it stalled. They didn’t click. And so he reunited with Bournemouth. Since then, Howe and Bournemouth have won 6 and drew 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions. The union just works. It’s his club.
This weekend they come up against a Bury side who are in decent form. They were on a 3 game winning run until Colchester recorded a 2-0 win against them. During this mini-run of form, they faced Portsmouth and Oldham in the League. Portsmouth had lost 4 matches on the bounce prior to their meeting, and the match after. They had just lost their Manager a few days before, so a Bury win in that match was no surprise really. Their second win, against Oldham, was a decent victory. Oldham are an inconsistent side who started shockingly but found a little purple patch prior to the loss to Bury, losing just 1 of the previous 7 fixtures. Midweek Bury picked up an important win against fellow strugglers Scunthorpe, which will grant them a confidence boost going into this match up with Bournemouth.
I’m going against recent head to head form on this, perhaps unwisely. Bury have won the last three meetings between the sides, each time by a 1 goal margin. Generally if a side has won the last 3 meetings I would steer well clear. Of the two League 1 games I’ve featured, I would say that this is not the safest of bets due to Bury’s form. However, the power of resurgence is a strong one. Bournemouth have belief, they are on a roll, have direction, and their form is good. I can see O2.5 in this match aswell, as Bournemouth have the ability to score as demonstrate in their 4-1 demolition of Oldham, whilst there has been at least 2 goals in Bury’s last 4 matches.
COVENTRY v Portsmouth
Through sky blue tinted goggles…
I very, very rarely back my supported team, Coventry City; mainly because we are generally as useful as a chocolate kettle when it comes to playing football. ‘Holding a lead’ is a phrase rarely muttered throughout the Sky Blue Army. ‘We’re playing some good football’ is equally as infrequent. But most of all, the fans have been asking to have a goalscorer, a talisman, a figure of hope, for many a year now. It would appear that under relatively new boss Mark Robins, the above dreams are becoming reality at the Ricoh. After a jaw dropping 5-0 spanking of Hartlepool, this was followed up by an equally impressive, if not more so, 3-1 away win over Colchester. Key to the recent run of form is the performances and goals of loanee David McGoldrick. I remember playing Football Manager (or CM, whichever version it was then…) about 4 or 5 years ago when he was a promising player at Southampton. As everyone knows, FM is 100% reliable for players potential (Supat Rungratsumee / Cherno Samba, anyone?). But I believed the game at this time. McGoldrick has so far failed to live up to both virtual and reality based expectations of him. Yet, for a reason unbeknown to me, he’s found both himself, and the back of the net, at CCFC. His loan deal expires in January, at which point if he doesn’t join permanently we shouldn’t be too surprised. He is clearly a step up from League 1, and if Forest don’t want him, it is almost guarantee that somebody else in the Championship will. But for now, he’s ours, and he’s playing on Sunday, and he will score. Over the last 5 games, Coventry are actually one of the form sides in the league (it’s actually true!). Quite simply, Portsmouth aren’t. Michael Appleton was doing what is known as a ‘respectable job’ at Fratton Park before he quite rightly left for job security at Blackpool. Before he left they had lost 4 on the spin, and since he left they’ve lost the next 3. They haven’t had their pants pulled down in any of these matches, but alarmingly they have only scored in 2 of them. This is why I feel Coventry could take the 3 points. If the threat against the CCFC goal is minimal, for once we can almost rely on our attackers, David McG in particular, to find the net. It’s a refreshing thought. After our goalscoring exploits recently, a hopeful Coventry -1 or +0.5 goals AH might be nice too! Don’t screw me Cov, it will hurt!
Oxford v NORTHAMPTON
Adebayo Akinfenwa is the reason why after a KFC I still believe I can turn pro…
In modern day football, it is generally expected that players are able, if not willing, to run for 90 minutes, and that they look after their physique. An exception to this is Adebayo Akinfenwa. The guy is huge, yet he has eclipsed 100 career goals. This season he has been a focal point of Northampton’s attack. After reading through a few Northampton dominated forums I’m reliable informed that the once ‘rotund’ journeyman is now pure muscle. It makes you wonder what Emile Heskey could have achieved had he got the balls and desire to drop down a league or two and stay within the English game. However, after watching a few clips of Northamptons games this season, i can see similarities with a more special player – Dimitar Berbatov (no joke…). I came across a blog titled ‘Too Fat to Play Football?’, in which a comparison is made:
It is questionable how a player so massive is able to play football. The answer can be summed up with the following quote from a Bristol Rovers forum. ” Akinfenwa doesn’t get knackered because he hardly runs around. There are players that are naturally large and there are fat and lazy players. He’s fat and lazy. If he bothered to get himself properly fit he’d be a menace higher up the leagues.” There is no denying the fact that he is on the large size. Having taken a keen interest in the striker largely due to his weight, I have noticed that his awareness and first touch are so good that they would not look out of place in the Championship. Dimitar Berbatov has been described as the master of walking football. Perhaps Akinfenwa could be seen as the lower league equivalent?
Now no-one is suggesting he is anywhere near as good as Berba. The Bulgarian appears lazy because he knows his team mates will give him the ball, and when he has it, football comes naturally. Why run if the ball will come to you? Akinfenwa doesn’t run, because he probably can’t. After listening to his recent post match interview, he sounded like he had taken a few blows to the head, outlining that he doesnt really know when he’s scored in him ramblings. Perhaps he played Rugby (he certainly has the physique for it) when he was younger and took a few blows to the head, as he sounded like he was a penny short of the pound when i listened to him. This hasn’t detracted from his performance this season though, and with this guy in form I can see Northampton getting the better of Oxford this weekend. He is the ideal striker to play away from home and with Northampton relatively difficult to score against, having conceded 25 goals all year (a respectable figure in the context of the league), I can see an away win. I wouldn’t expect a high scoring game, maybe 1-0 might be worth a shot. Oxford have been better than have been bad at home this year, but their inconsistency (W4 D2 L3) leads me to trust in recent form: Northampton – WDWWW / Oxford – WLDLD.
Aldershot v Port Vale
When you have the Pope on your side…
Earlier in the season I won various bets backing a Port Vale win with Tom Pope to score. Over the last few weeks Port Vale have gone off the boil somewhat, picking up 4 points (4 draws) out of a possible 15. However, in their last match against a struggling Bristol Rovers, Pope fired in a hat trick to guarantee his side the 3 points in a 4-0 win. Port Vale have recently confirmed that a much needed takeover has been completed, a transfer embargo lifted allowing Micky Adams to potentially bring in reinforcements. Coupled with such an emphatic victory, the feeling around the club is a buoyant one, which could lead to a positive run of results.
Aldershot go into the match in indifferent form. In their last 5 matches in all competitions they have a record of WDLDW. Picking up a win in their last game is likely to be behind why you can get decent odds on Port Vale winning this match. I think Vale a great value for a win here, especially when you look at both home/away form and head to head. At home, Aldershot have W1 D2 L6, conceding 11 and scoring a pitiful 2 goals. Away from home, Vale have W5 D2 L2, scoring 15 and conceding 9 goals. The head to head history doesn’t do Aldershot any favours either, with Port Vale winning the last 4 encounters over the last 2 seasons.
Form & the feel good factor are my reasons behind backing Port Vale. Potential side bets of Pope to score and Vale to win, Port Vale -1, and O2.5 goals could also come in here.
Summary:
Lower Confidence
1) Arsenal, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leicester, Bournemouth, Coventry, Northampton, Port Vale
Small stake accumulator, 4fold & 6fold BetVictor @ 572/1
2) Arsenal v Aston Villa – BTTS BetVictor @ 1.62/1
3) Tom Pope to score and Port Vale to win PaddyPower @ 3.1/1
4) Northampton 1-0 Win Bet365 @ 11/1
5) Sunderland v West Brom Draw / 0-0 BetVictor @ 11/1
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Medium Confidence:
1) Coventry -1 BetFred @ 3.4/1
2) Coventry +0.5 AH Bet365 @ 1.28/1
3) David McGoldrick Anytime BetVictor @ 2/1
4) West Brom +0.5 AH BetVictor @ 1.64/1
5) Middlesbrough -1 Bet365 @ 2.07/1
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High Confidence:
1) Aldershot v Port Vale O2.5 goals Bet365 @ 1.95/1
2) Port Vale -1 Ladbrokes @ 4.5/1
3) Sheff Wednesday v Leicester O2.5 Goals Coral @ 1.91/1
4) Bury v Bournemouth O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.8/1
The Soccer Surgeon 
