#1 – The Soccer Surgeon Says…
After months of blogging tips, relatively successfully with lots of close calls, a fair amount of decent wins, and the odd large bookie bash, i am now going to write short viewpoints on topics from the football world.
Two headlines to comment on here from the Daily Mail Online:
Liverpool are out of the FA Cup because ‘weak’ Webb refused to award clear penalty / Suarez’s reputation for theatrics is denying Liverpool obvious penalties
The author of the first article is former top referee Graham Poll, who outlines how Howard Webb will be remembered for the decision not to award what looked like a blatantly obvious penalty to Liverpool for an Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain foul on Luis Suarez, as opposed to what he believes was an otherwise strong performance from Englands ‘top’ referee, and that he perhaps opted not to award Liverpool a 2nd penalty due to this first one, which was given, being, well, soft at best. Well, Graham, i’d have to disagree with you. Just because the referee feels as though one decision that he awards was light or soft, shouldn’t influence in any way any other decision that he should have to make. If it was the case that the first decision, for which a penalty was awarded for Lukas Podolski’s soft touch on, as expected, Luis Suarez, was tough to call and had the potential to influence future decisions, then don’t give it Howard, or at least have the balls to back yourself and preserve the integrity of the game for the whole 90+ minutes instead of trying to determine some personal level of equilibrium in your decision making. It doesn’t matter if a tackle is as soft as a neatly folded square of Andrex Gorgeous Comfort Quilt, make a decison and move on. From that point forwards you give decisions based on the action & evidence you have before you. Stop living in the past maaaan!
Suarez doesn’t help himself when appealing for decisions due to his deep need to do an impression of a pain stricken salmon each and every time he feels contact. If he simply went down naturally, refs would not feel as though he was trying to con them through exaggeration, thus he may stand more of a chance of getting the decision he so craves. On this occasion, i feel that had a different referee had been selected to officiate, it would have been a penalty.
*If anyone hasn’t seen the incident, here it is…
After watching that, did anyone else have a flashback to Stone Cold Steve Austin in his hey day? Did Suarez get Stone Cold Stunnered??
For Graham Poll to even suggest that Howard Webb had an otherwise decent game is a confusing statement in itself considering that at every opportunity he gave into Steven Gerrard’s desires. It was this infatuation which must explain how he bottled booking Raheem Sterling for his petulance & gob-shitedness, which culminated in the little brat placing a hand of disgust/molestation on England’s top referee.
At first i thought “Oh Shit Raheem, you’ve really done it now. Howard’s gon’ get all Ross Kemp on your ass”, but no. One look into the Liverpool captain’s piercing eyes had our Howard weak at the knees and card shy. What chance has the FA got of improving the image of players and achieving success in their ‘Respect’ campaigns if England’s #1 Ref doesn’t possess the Cahoonies to stand up to a 5′ 7″ 19 year old.
For all of Webbs strengths, over the last season or so he seems to have had an internal explosion of self importance. In 2010, he became the first person to referee the finals of both the UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cup in the same year, and i feel this honour has gone to his head. He appears to form, and follow, personal opinions of players i.e his man crush for Gerrard, and his apparent distaste for Suarez. Earlier in the season he failed to provide any protection to Suarez when Chelsea’s Samuel Eto’o committed a cynical foul against the Uruguayan For me, there are just two available routes to go down in order to solve this; either Webb takes a step back, looks at himself and decides to knuckle down and be the best referee, or Steven Gerrard cashes in some Tesco Clubcard vouchers and takes Howard to Bella Italia before asking him to be nicer to his friend Luis.
Links to articles:
01 / 09 / 2013
It really is Super Sunday this weekend with Liverpool hosting Manchester United followed by Tottenhams visit to arch rivals Arsenal.
Liverpool v Manchester United
After watching the utter dross that was Man United v Chelsea earlier in the week, it was more than obvious that Jose Mourinho had decided to go to Old Trafford and not risk defeat, settling for a draw and hoping to nick a win. This meant that the onus was on United to seize the game and claim a win against their title rivals, but the Red Devils just didnt produce. As the current champions who have ambitions to retain their crown, United will have expected to take 4 points or more from the fixtures against Chelsea and Liverpool. For me, this means that the pressure is now on Man United as if they lose to Liverpool then questions will be asked of Moyes and his men in regards to whether they have the appetite and ability to dominate against their rivals. Granted that if they win or draw this match then they will remain unbeaten in what has been a tough start to their season, yet if they lose against Liverpool then many will see it as two games in which they haven’t won against big rivals.
So far this season Liverpool have won both of their games and kept two clean sheets in what has been an impressive start to the campaign. Brendan Rodgers will be hoping to avoid going into the international break with a defeat against their major rivals looming in his squads minds, and will be relatively confident of coming away from this match with at least a point. The fluidity and pace of Liverpools attack has the potential to cause Uniteds defence some issues, whilst Uniteds lack of creativity against Chelsea will offer some confidence to the Liverpool back line who hope to record another clean sheet.
Something that could prove crucial to the outcome of the tie is the number of injury concerns that Liverpool have to contend with coming into the game. In their midweek cup tie against Notts County which ran into extra time Liverpool picked up injuries to defensive duo Kolo Toure and Aly Cissokho and midfielder Joe Allen. It seems that if Toure fails to recover from his groin problem then Liverpool will look to replace him with Martin Skrtel, should he sufficiently recover from a knee injury. Replacing 1 injured players with another (not fully fit), isnt ideal for any team. Even if the injury situation does not prove to much of an issue for Brendan Rodgers, then the fatigue his players may experience due to playing 120 minutes midweek may cause him a headache.
PAST THREE MEETINGS…
Man United 2 (Van Persie, Vidic) Liverpool 1(Sturridge), Premier League, Jan 2013
Liverpool 1 (Gerrard) Man United 2 (Rafael, Van Persie), Premier League, Sept 2012
Man United 2(Rooney 2) Liverpool 1 (Suarez), Premier League, Feb 2012
Looking at the previous 3 meetings between the sides, United have won each tie 2-1, with Van Persie finding the net in each of last seasons meetings. Clearly United have enjoyed facing Liverpool of late, with United winning more Premier League points here (34) than any other visiting team, while their 10 wins at Anfield is four more than any other club have managed in the Premier League era (Arsenal have won six). Yet on the contrary we have new United manager David Moyes’ personal (Everton) record when visiting Anfield, which is a bit of a miserable read. In 12 trips to Anfield, all as Everton manager, Moyes lost five and drew seven. Under SAF United clearly found a winning formula, so if Moyes tries to influence the way United play to his liking, then it appears they may struggle and fair less favorably than they have over the last few games.
Personally, I think both teams would love to avoid defeat here, and whilst i think United will edge it, i’d take advantage of the odds currently available and back them on the +0.25 Asian Handicap. If you cant find this you can select United at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if United the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.
Scorewise, id look at 1-1 or 2-1 (United win).
![Pre_Match_-_EPL_-_Arsenal_v._Tottenham_-_26-02-12[23-26-46]](https://thesoccersurgeon.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/pre_match_-_epl_-_arsenal_v-_tottenham_-_26-02-1223-26-46.png)
Arsenal v Tottenham
The North London derby is always a tasty affair, and i expect this one to live up to expectations. A lot has been made of the contrasts of fortunes that both sides have experienced in the summer transfer window so far, and i feel that it could prove crucial in this encounter between the two sides. After both sides played European football midweek, Arsenal’s lack of squad depth could see their players tired, whilst Tottenham’s ability to rotate should ensure freshness amongst their players. In their 3-0 win over Dinamo Tbilisi, you could count at least 5 players for Spurs who would not be considered first 11 regulars, yet the comfortable nature of their win suggests that not only do they have squad depth, but that quality is flowing throughout. If we look at Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Fenerbahce, its fair to say that at least 9 of the players who started the game are considered first choice for Arsene Wenger, whilst The Gunners had five under-21s on the bench against Fulham recently and they’ve picked up another injury since.
It is in the middle of the park that i feel Spurs could dominate this game. The previous matches between the two sides have seen both Arsenal and Spurs adopt high lines, which has contributed to the amount of goals in the games. For me, if Arsenal does this is could be disastrous. When playing a high line, the midfield must put sufficient pressure on the ball so that through balls are prevented. Consistent, effective pressure is not something you would claim to be one of the Arsenal midfields strengths. This job is one for a combative, energetic, tough tackling type of player. Do Spurs have a player such as this? Well yes, they can pick from Mousa Dembele, Etienne Capoue and Paulinho, even Sandro, when looking for somebody to take on that role. I would suggest that the Spurs midfield players particular attention to Cazorla (no surprise there) due to him being particularly adept at playing through balls. Whoever it is that AVB selects to try to neutralize Cazorla should possess the athleticism required to cause Cazorla to second think any ideas he has of running past the opposition midfield, forcing him to pass. As long as the through ball are cut out, Spurs should feel less worried when one of the little Spaniards team mates receives the ball from him, knowing that they have both done their job and whomever he passes to is less likely to trouble their goal.
I dont envisage there being the goal fest that some expect due to several points. First of all, Lukas Podolski has played a hand in eight goals (scoring five and assisting three) in his last seven Premier League starts for Arsenal. As we all know the German is out injured so he could be a big miss when it comes to finding the net for Arsenal. For Tottenham, Gareth Bale has scored more goals against Arsenal in the Premier League than any other opposition, finding the net five times in 10 appearances, whilst scoring in both meetings between the teams last season. Again, we know he wont be taking to the field on Sunday due to his impending move to Real Madrid. Despite these two attacking absences, i still expect there to be Over 2.5 Goals, and considering that 13 of the last 14 league matches between Tottenham and Arsenal have achieved this, i should be a relatively safe bet. I don’t doubt that there are likely to be goals, but being so early into the season neither are going to want to give too much away to a rival for a champions league place, much like in the Man United v Chelsea fixture recently.
As with United in the first game, I’ll be taking Tottenham on +0.25 AH, or If you cant find this you can select Spurs at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if Spurs win the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.
Season Long Bets
It is just a few days before the Premier League kicks off for what promises to be one of the most competitive seasons for years. With Man United, Man City & Chelsea all having new managers it remains to be seen who will triumph come the end of May. Not only have those at the top of the league invested, the rest of the league have too with Norwich looking like they have had a good transfer window, whilst Sunderland have had an overhaul of last seasons failing squad. Here i have selected a few bets which will run for the whole season.
League Winners:
Premier League – Chelsea @ 3.25 (EW)
Championship – Reading @ 9 (EW)
League One – Wolves @ 4.5 (EW)
League Two – Chesterfield @ 8.5 (EW)
4-fold with SkyBet
Premier League Top Goalscorer:
I tried to avoid RVP here as there is little value with him, whilst Bale is too risky with the strong Madrid interest. As for Suarez, his current fallout with Liverpool means that even when he has served the rest of his ban he may not be a starting 11 player, nor fully match fit thus giving him potentially a 10 game handicap.
Romelu Lukaku @ 26 (EW) – Bet365
Edin Dzeko @ 34 (EW) – Bet365
Premier League Relegation:
Fulham @ 8 – BetVictor
Top 8 Finish:
Swansea @ 3.5 – Stan James
2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction
For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really. The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.
Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners
In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.
For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.
League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.
And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.
04 / 05 / 2013
TOTTENHAM v Southampton
Spurs’ home form is decent and with them chasing Champions League football they will expect to win this game against a Southampton side who’s away form is nothing to shout about. There is a home/away GD swing of 21 going into this encounter favouring Spurs. Southampton are pretty much safe, with it being very unlikely they will slip into the bottom 3 with just 4 games remaining now.
QPR v ARSENAL
Arsenal are still fighting hard for a top 4 spot and a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last week kept them as favourites to finish 4th ahead of Tottenham. They really cannot afford any slip ups and even if they do win all their remaining games it may not be enough if Spurs win all of theirs. Arsenal know they cannot afford to drop any points here and they really come out fired up against Manchester United last week, if they can play at that level again they’ll manage an easy victory.
WEST HAM (dnb) v Newcastle
Whilst West Ham are safe, i still expect them to going into this home match against Newcastle with sufficient hunger to put in a solid performance. Sam Allardyce, along with Kevin Nolan & Andy Carroll will relish the chance to face their former club and securing the 3 points will be top of their agenda. The Hammers are looking to move further into the top half in what has been a great first season back in the top flight, whereas Newcastle are right back into relegation trouble after a shocking performance against Liverpool last week. The spanking they got from Liverpool combined with losing the derby to Sunderland has left the Magpies in a horrible position amid rumours of dressing room unrest at St. James’. Their away record this season is awful, winning just 1 from 17 games, losing 10, whilst The Hammers have a home record of W8 D5 L4 which isn’t too bad. Going into this game there is a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring West Ham, and I can’t really look past West Ham taking at least 1 point from this game.
BOLTON v Blackpool
A win for Bolton in this Lancashire derby would seal a place in the play offs for the home sides. They are in a great run of form with just one defeat in 6 games, winning 4 and drawing 1. Being one of the form sides of the division has coincided with Leicester, Nott’m Forest and Middlesbrough all stuttering, meaning Bolton now have this opportunity to win a chance of promotion. Since moving to Bolton, manager Dougie Freedman has really sorted the team out and has impressed me. If you look at how Crystal Palace have struggled since his departure you can see the effect he has. Blackpool are safe from the drop, and have no doubt improved since Paul Ince took charge. Having little to play for in terms of the league could affect the team and i think that they may not match Bolton for desire and tempo in this match. Bolton’s home record reads as W14 D5 L3, whilst Blackpool’s away record stands at W6 D7 L9. Going into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 26 favouring Bolton. Improving non-stop over the past few months and it would be no surprise if they prove to be too much for Blackpool.
CHARLTON v Bristol
If the season had another 5 games to go then Charlton would harbour serious ambitions of a play off push, having lost just once in their last 10 games, winning 5 and drawing 4. At home they have a record of W7 D6 L9, which admittedly isn’t great. However, they have now won their last 3 home games and will be full of confidence. Bristol’s away record is a key reason as to why they have already been relegation, with it reading as W3 D4 L15. Heading into this match there is a home/away GD swing of 13 favouring Charlton, mainly down to Bristol’s inadequacy at both ends of the field. The last time Bristol won an away game was way back in December ’12 and I see no reason why they would suddenly produce a winning performance here. Charlton can recall a win over Bristol earlier in the season by two goals to nil for an added confidence boost if necessary
DERBY (dnb) v Millwall
I don’t envisage Millwall succumbing to relegation, despite not seeing them taking the 3 points in this one with 1 point realistically enough for them to survive being dragged into the drop zone. They face a Derby County side who have an admirable home record of W11 D7 L4, whilst Millwall’s away record stands at W7 D7 L8. Derby haven’t been in the best of form recently, yet Millwall have been worse still. Fortunately for the Lions it requires the trio of Sheff Wednesday ( v Middlesbrough), Peterborough ( v Crystal Palace) & Barnsley ( v Huddersfield) to all win if they themselves lose for them to be relegated. In my eyes the side doesn’t possess much quality and i can see Derby taking full advantage of being at home and coming away with the spoils here.
6 Fold – Odds 16.91
23 / 02 / 2013
Premiership
ARSENAL v Aston Villa
Despite losing to Blackburn in the FA Cup recently, I feel Arsenal will bounce back this weekend against a struggling Villa side. Their home form has been decent this year, with a record of W7 D3 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.53) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.38). Arsenal have won 3 of their last 4 at home in the league, whilst in their last 10 league games both home & away they have lost just 2, against Manchester City & Chelsea. It is obvious to most that Arsenal are no longer in the same category quality wise as the like of United, City & Chelsea, yet their form, and league position, suggests that they are still a decent side. I don’t really understand the big furor about them losing convincingly to Bayern Munich in CL recently as Bayern are a top quality side who could demolish anyone on their day. Villa have a been poor this season, struggling both home & away. When playing away from home as they are this weekend, Villa have a record of W2 D5 L6, scoring just 14 (Avg 1.07) and conceding 31 (Avg 2.38). This season the two sides played out a 0-0 draw in December, whilst last season Arsenal won the 3 games between the sides with scores of 3-0, 3-2, 1-2. Villa are clearly a weaker side this year, and I can see nothing other than an Arsenal win. If I had to predict a score for this game, I’d go Arsenal 2-0 or 2-1.
QPR v MAN UNITED
In their 2-1 win over Reading in the FA Cup on Monday SAF decided to rest a few of his first choice players, indicating both the squad depth he has at his disposal and the importance of the league. He knows after last season that they can not afford to slip up in games they should be winning, or their title rivals will look to seize the opportunity.
QPR lost 3-1 to United early in the season, and twice last season by 2-0 deficits. These head to head figures clearly show that United have no issue scoring past QPR, and despite their squad strengthening in the January transfer window I can see this match being no different. At home this season QPR have a record of W1 D7 L5, scoring a measly 8 goals (Avg 0.61) whilst conceding 19 (Avg 1.46). They face a United side who have been churning out results recently. Their away form record reads as W9 D2 L2, scoring 28 (Avg 2.15) and conceding 16 (Avg 1.23).
Wayne Rooney, Phil Jones and Paul Scholes appear to be unavailable for United this weekend, whilst QPR will be missing January signing Loic Remy. For United, these absentees should not be too much of an issue with their large squad, but QPR will desperately miss Remy and things look bleak for the West London club in terms of attacking threat.
I can’t see QPR finding the net in this game, so my score prediction would be United 0-2 or 0-3 winners.
Championship
BRIGHTON v Burnley
After their impressive midweek victory over table toppers Cardiff, I’m backing Brighton in this match. The Seagulls have a very decent home record this season having W6 D7 and L3, scoring 22 (Avg 1.38) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). They face a Burnley side who go into this game on the back of a 4 game winless run (LDLD). They have lost 50% of their away games this season, with a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 24 (Avg 1.5) and conceding 30 (Avg 1.88). The two sides have already met this season, where Brighton won the game by 3 goals to 1 away at Burnley. The last 3 games that Brighton have played a re the main reason I am I of the impression that they will be victorious in this game. As already mentioned they beat Cardiff midweek, and in their previous 2 games they drew 1-1 with Blackburn who went into that match on a 3 game winning run, and beat Hull at home who themselves are looking for promotion this season. Brighton will be further boosted by the fact that Boss Gus Poyet is able to welcome back three players who missed the midweek victory of Cardiff, with Ashley Barnes returning from a three-match ban, whilst fellow striker Craig Mackail-Smith is expected to shake off a knee problem and skipper Gordon Greer should be back in defence after a hamstring injury.
WATFORD v Derby
Despite the controversy surrounding Watford’s utilization of the loan system this season, there can be no arguments that they are playing some wonderful football and gaining results, which is in part down to the added quality that these additions have brought to their squad. Watford’s home form this season has been a little bit inconsistent, with a record of W8 D3 L5, scoring 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceding 18 (Avg 1.13). They face a Derby side who are even more inconsistent away from home. Their away record reads as W3 D4 L9, scoring just 15 (Avg 0.93) and conceding 28 (Avg 1.75).
Watford approach this game having won 6 of their last 8 games, whilst Derby have won just 1 of their last 8. From Watford’s last 3 home games they have picked up 7 points, scoring 8 and conceding 3, whereas Derby have picked up 1 point from their last 3 away games, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Early in the season the two sides met and Derby won 5-1 at home, but this was at a time when Watford’s squad had yet to gel and they are a different side now. I’d be surprised if Derby found the net, and can see Watford getting a couple of goals at least here what with the average goals per games of the sides. Another area where I feel Watford have an advantage going into this encounter is in the squad available to each manager. Mark O’Brien, James O’Connor and Shaun Barker all out with knee injuries, whilst Kieron Freeman expected to be out for around a month after suffering a twisted ankle against Bolton in midweek and Gareth Roberts will be serving the final game of a three-match ban, the Rams are down to the bare bones at the back. As if this wasn’t enough of a headache for Derby, influential midfielder Will Hughes remains a doubt for Saturday after missed his first game of the season in midweek after a groin strain forced him off during the goalless draw with Wolves last weekend. Watford on the other hand will have the option of welcoming back 19-goal top scorer Matej Vydra and midfielder Cristian Battocchio having rested the pair to the bench in their 2-0 away win over Ipswich in midweek.
League One
OLDHAM v Portsmouth
I fancy Oldham to secure the 3 points against Pompey in this fixture. They go into the game with a little bit of decent form behind them having sandwiched the last gasp 2-2 draw against Everton in the FA Cup with victories over MK Dons (3-1) and Stevenage (1-2). Pompey look doomed this season, with League Two football looking likely for next season especially due to their disastrous current run of form. They are winless in 21 games, having lost 16 and drew 5, and whilst 2 of these draws came in the last two games they have played, I still can not see them ending this barren run. Oldham can take confidence from the fact that they have beaten Pompey already this season 0-1 away from home, so should fancy their chances on home soil. With both sides finding themselves towards the bottom of the table it is no surprise that neither have a decent home/away record to compare. Oldham’s home record reads W4 D3 L8, scoring 16 (Avg 1.06) and conceding 19 (Avg 1.19). Pompey’s away record reads as W2 D5 L9, score 16 (Avg 1.0) conceded 31 (Avg 1.94). Despite both sides having a negative GD home/away, there is still a 12 goal difference between them.
League Two
NORTHAMPTON v Plymouth
Im backing a home win here primarily down to the fact that Northampton are dominant at home whilst Plymouth struggle when away. Northampton’s record at home stands at W11 D2 L3, scoring 33 (Avg 2.06) and conceding 14 (Avg 0.88). Plymouth’s away record stands at W3 D5 L7, scoring 15 (Avg 0.88) and conceding 22 (Avg 1.88). Northampton have won 5 in a row at home, a run which has seen them score 12 goals and concede just 3.
Plymouth did beat Northampton in the first fixture this season 3-2, yet I do not see them repeating this result this weekend. Aidy Boothroyd has given his squad the best possible chance of winning against the Pilgrims by resting several key players for the midweek exertions at Wimbledon.
With Northampton being solid at home they won’t want to miss out on this opportunity to take 3 points off a Plymouth side who don’t travel well. At odds of around evens Northampton look great value this weekend.
Conference Premier
KIDDERMINSTER v Alfreton
Kidderminster go into this game full of confidence looking for their 5th win in a row as they attempt to maintain their promotion push. They have won 8 of their last 10 games, and more importantly have won 7 of their last 8 at home, a run which has seen them score 17 and concede 5. Their home record this season reads W9 D3 L4, scored 28 (Avg 1.75) and conceded 15 (Avg 0.94). When you consider that Kidderminster actually lost their first 3 home matches of the season, the record is even more impressive. They face an Alfreton side who are in danger of really being dragged into the relegation dog fight if they don’t get some good results together, sitting just 5 points clear of the drop zone. They have lost 4 of the last 5 games, conceding 10 goals in the process, whilst admirably scoring 6. Away from home they have been fairly decent compared to their home form, with their away record reading as W6 D5 L6, scoring 22 (Avg 1.29) and conceding 26 (Avg 1.53).
For Kidderminster they should feel that they have little to fear however, as over the last 2 seasons the sides have met 4 times, and Kidderminster have won 3 and drew 1 of the games. The one time that the sides have met when Kidderminster have been the home side ended in a 3-1 win, whilst the GD for Kidderminster from these games is +6.
The momentum that Kidderminster have going into this match should see them run out comfortable winners, and should cover a -1 if you’re feeling lucky.
NEWPORT v Telford
Its 5th versus bottom in this match, and a game which I feel should result in a home victory. Newport have been decent at home this season, W8 D4 L4, scoring 33 (2.06) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of two victories against decent Woking and Mansfield sides. In the previous game before these victories they drew 2-2 at Tamworth, and although some may see this result as a glimmer of hope for Telford, Tamworth’s point came courtesy of two late goals including a 93rd minute penalty to seal the draw. Telford’s away form has been miserable, W3 D7 L6, scoring 21 (Avg 1.31) and conceding 23 (Avg 1.43). They go into this game on the back of 4 defeats and a draw, whilst being winless in 15 league games. The draw they picked up against Tamworth in midweek will have taken its toll on the side with them having to come back 3 times to secure a 3-3 draw. These two sides have met already this season, a game which resulted in a 2-4 scoreline in favour of Newport.
Bet Summary
25 / 11 / 2012
Chelsea v Man City
It’s unlikely either side is going to dominate this match, with Chelsea losing just once at home while City remain unbeaten in away games. Chelsea have a +7 goal difference in their home games, scoring 14 and conceding 7, whilst City have a +2 goal difference in away matches after scoring just 7 goals but conceding 5. I’m curious to see whether Rafa Benitez tries to change Chelsea style or formation in his first match in charge, and even more interesting to see whether he can tap in Torres’ talents. With City’s forward line, they are always capable of finding the net, especially when they are up against David Luiz. In the last 3 seasons between the sides, out of the 6 games played 4 have had more than 2 goals in them, whilst 4 have also seen both teams score. If i had to pick a winner here, i’m looking more towards Chelsea due to home advantage and City’s relative poor form. What i do fancy is ‘both teams to score’ and O2.5 goals.
Southampton v Newcastle
Nigel Adkins Southampton are yet to achieve a clean sheet this season, so Demba Ba will surely be looking to add to his 8 goals.The Saints seem very weak defensively, and it would be no major surprise were they to concede. However, Newcastle are missing a few key players such as Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Collocini. These absentee’s will seriously hamper the Magpies attacking creativity, but also their solidarity at the back. Collocini’s calmness and influence will be missed, and with Southampton displaying this season that they can score goals, im inclined to go again for a ‘both teams to score’. Due to both sides frailties, i might take a little punt on O2.5 goals. As with the Chelsea v Man City match, i’m struggling to pick a winner here; Southampton are poor at home, Newcastle are yet to win away. I’ve got a feeling this could end up as a draw.
Tottenham v West Ham
I can see this London derby ending up as a low scoring affair, primarily due to both sides goal statistics this season. Spurs have scored 8 and conceded 8 at home, whilst the Hammer have scored 4 and conceded 6 in away matches. Recent form points towards West Ham in this one, having gone 3 unbeaten (1W & 2D) whereas Spurs have lost their last 3 matches. The most recent defeat was against Arsenal, where Adebayor got sent off, and his presence will be missed against a combative West Ham. From the Spurs matches i have seen, it appears they are trying too hard to play ‘football’, and need to adopt a more direct style to get some wins on the board. A striker pairing, i.e Adebayor and Defoe, would allow them to do this, but ABV’s reluctance, and obviously Adebayor’s absence, means that they will not be able to do this against the Hammers. In the midweek Europa league tie against Lazio i was amazed that Tottenham did lose. Hugo Lloris was outstanding in my opinion, but then we just don’t know whether the French stopper or evergreen Brad Friedel will be between the sticks. This rotation is ridiculous really, it does little to help the goalkeepers, and is even less help in allowing the defensive unit of GK and defence to form a real understanding between each other. Despite this, being of the opinion that West Ham’s strengths lie in set pieces, the height that Spurs have in their side defensively with the likes of Gallas, Vertonghen, & Caulker, i can see them nullifying West Ham’s key attacking route. Again, ‘both teams to score’ for me, making a nice treble for the day. If i had to pick a winner, i’m leaning toward West Ham to win and put even more pressure on ABV.
Summary:
Low Confidence
Southampton v Newcastle O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.75/1
Medium Confidence
Southampton v Newcastle Draw
Chelsea Win
West Ham Win
High Confidence
‘BTTS’ treble BetFred @ 4.5/1
24 / 11 / 2012
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
‘What a weird player Walcott is, an infuriating mix of the unplayable and the unfathomable’.
In the Guardians coverage of the North London derby last weekend, they used the above quote to aptly describe Theo Walcott. However, the same notion can also be used to illustrate the maddening reality of the Gunners inability to produce a display in which they control and dominate a game without it being littered with silly mistakes. Against Spurs the scoreline would suggest they deserved the result, which I can’t argue they did. However, prior to Adebayor reducing the game to little more than a contest, and on a few occasions post-sending off, the Arsenal backline was noticeably positional inept. Whether this was down to Vermaelen playing at LB as opposed to centrally, or due to Mertesacker being slower than a wet weekend, is debatable. Koscielny’s awareness does rescue the Gunners when the beanpole Germans deficiencies (Yes, German’s do have deficiencies) rear their ugly head. If big Per wants to learn about the importance of positioning I’d recommend having a quick read of Sun Tzu’s: The Art of War. The ancient Chinese military strategist outlines how positional awareness gives you a framework for understanding your strategic position. It also enables you to see your position as part of a larger environment surrounded by other positions. You can understand which aspects of your position are secure and which are the most dynamic and likely to change. Mertesacker sometimes seems oblivious to the location of his team-mates in relation to his own, which leads to attacks running in behind and offside traps being pointless. I can imagine one Pascal Cygan sitting in a French villa somewhere chuckling to himself as he watches with bemusement as his version 2.0 struggles in the manner he became known for. But I can’t lay the blame solely at the feet of the German because I honestly believe that he has improved drastically when compared to last season. He was dominant against Schalke, and I’m sure that many an Arsenal fan are relieved at having an aerially competent CB for a change. I actually feel that he is not a leader, and needs someone alongside him, as in right next to him, to hold his hand and whisper in his ear throughout the game. Koscielny is not this man – My view is that the Verminator of 2011/2012 would be perfect. Not one to escape this rant, Vermaelen really needs to pull his finger out for me. The Belgium is capable of better, more composed performances despite playing out of position at LB. He seems to have some sort of aura of self belief which is manifesting itself into over-confidence. You’re a good footballer Thomas, yes, but you’re no Messi, nor are you a Kieran Gibbs (the sooner Ashley Cole’s less than perfect clone returns the better in my eyes; Vermaelen shifts central, Koscielny takes a seat, organisation is restored – Simples). Perhaps he knows that Wenger’s other option is to put Andre Santos there instead. Not really a performance inducing kick up the back side is it? I’ve primarily concentrated on the suspect defending of Arsenal, largely ignoring the fine attacking play, which they have proven that they are capable of. Cazorla is a beautiful footballer. Not as beautiful as Giroud though. As Cazorla chisels through defenses, Giroud admires his cheekbones. The trio of Wilshere, Arteta and Cazorla will inevitable grow and control matches and create chances, which I feel will see Giroud bag a respectable goal tally, and silence those calling for his head after less than 20 games. Yes, he has not set the league on fire. Give the guy time. Please. This polarization of Arsenal’s line-up (Attacking Genius ~ Dodgy Defence) has made them a regular fixture in many a ‘both teams to score’ list this season, and once more they may well be for me this coming weekend. I can visualize Benteke shrugging off each and every one of the backline if given the opportunity. But equally its more than feasible to see Cazorla and Co. pulling the Villa kids around like puppets. And this is where Walcott could pop up as he does. A darting run in from the right to latch onto a through ball from any one of the aforementioned trio, before his scuffed effort finds a way into the net. Queue his post-match interview in which he will inevitably state how much he 1) loves Arsenal, 2) wants to ‘get something sorted’, and 3) really believes he can play as a striker. Maybe you can Theo, maybe you can. But in the mean time, why not just concentrate on doing what you are asked to do? It really isn’t that bad a job is it. Walcott seems like a lovely fellow. He’s comes across as well spoken and down to earth. But Arsene Wenger is a footballing genius. If he thinks you are good enough to play as a CF for Arsenal FC, you will play as CF for Arsenal FC. He clearly feels Walcott is not ready to, or is not good enough, to take this role in the side. As such an integral part of the first 11, a CF is required to link up play and be consistent in its threat. If you had to name a few of Walcott’s weaknesses as a footballer I’m sure many would say his passing / decisions / consistency. Theo has no doubt shown some levels of improvement in these areas, his crossing in particular has clearly benefitted from work in all three of these. This indicates that he is still capable of improving, so why not show some loyalty, and continue to work hard. If you’re good enough, it will come. If you’re not, Zaha will come. Maybe. Regardless, perhaps it would be better, more productive, safer, to play out wide against Villa. Other than the virtual opportunity I created for him earlier, getting munched by Villa’s very own BFG Ron Vlaar is nobodies cup of tea (Arsenal’s last trophy, Anyone?).
Ping Ping Ping is the order of the day for me. Stretch the Villa kids and the gaps will come. I promise. An Arsenal win, but they might well concede.
Sunderland v WEST BROM
No more boing boing for the Baggies…
It is possible that after Sunderland’s 3-1 win over Fulham that their goalscoring deficiencies have been eradicated. Stephen Sessegnon actually produced glimpses, not least his fine goal, of the player we know he is and Steven Fletcher continued to justify his hefty price tag. However, against 10men for the majority of the match, this should be expected of a team with the aspirations that Sunderland have. Even after Fulham lost Brede Hangeland, I still felt that they could get something out of the game, and despite this not materializing, I didn’t see enough from Sunderland in terms of controlling the game to suggest that they will be able to topple an in from West Brom this weekend.
Steve Clarke has got his side playing the kind of football that you would assume that Martin O’Neill wants his team to. Impressively, over the last couple of season the Baggies have managed to assemble a squad of players of the caliber which provide more than ample competition to the first team. For me, this is one of the primary reasons why the Midlands outfit are currently flying high. Having Odemwinge back amongst the goals is a further boost, whilst Shane Long is a constant thorn in any opposition’s side.
Recent history between the two sides definitely points towards a West Brom victory. Over the last 2 season, the Baggies have won 3 and drew one of the matches, the most recent result being a 4-0 home win. League form between the two sides also steers my betting compass towards an away win, with West Brom having 3 confidence boosting wins on the bounce, whereas Sunderland, prior to beating 10 man Fulham, had lost their previous two game.
Goals have obviously been an issue for the Black Cats this season. In their 4 home matches they have scored just 3, but equally have conceded just 3. Away from home, West Brom have score 5 and conceded 8 in their 5 games. This leads me to believe that the match won’t be a high scoring one, but if 1 side is to edge it, id opt for West Brom. So I’d recommend West Brom on the AH +0.5.
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Addition: As it is the early kick off im sure to be watching this one, so i’ve revisited the stats for another look to see whats available.
As Sunderland have experienced major difficulties winning at home, whilst West Brom have just one away win, a draw isn’t out of the question here. I very rarely bet on draws as a result, unless its incorporated in a double chance bet. However, my suggestion of West Brom on the +0.5 AH could work alongside a draw in this one. Sunderland’s goalscoring troubles are well documented, yet they actually have the second best home defensive record in the league, having only conceded an enviable three goals. A goal shy encounter would not be a shock really, and could be worth a small stake.
MIDDLESBROUGH v Bristol City
As far as I can see, there are no statistics which would lead anyone to back Bristol…they’ll probably win.
These two sides could hardly be further apart. Boro, despite losing to Cardiff in their last match, currently occupy 3rd spot after winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their last 10 games. Bristol have drew 2 and lost 8 of their last 10. The further you look into the match the bleaker it appears to be for Bristol. In the last 3 matches between the sides, they have 1 draw and 2 defeats, one of which was a 0-4 home defeat. Then you can take a peek at the home & away records between the sides. As the home side, Middlesbrough have W6 D1 L1 this season in the league, scoring 17 and conceding 9. As the away team, Bristol have W1 D1 L6 – the complete opposite to their opponents. Within these matches they have scored a pitiful 6 goals, and conceded 13. You can only imagine what the confidence within their squad is like at the moment. The players themselves must be dreading facing a decent footballing side such as ‘Boro.
If they are to try and frustrate their opponents and try to snatch a result, the player I would note as being key to Middlesbrough’s play is Emmanuel Ledesma. When ‘Boro manager Tony Mowbray was at West Brom, he managed to get them out of this league through playing attractive, attacking football. It seems that his style of play is finally bearing fruit at the Riverside, and key to this in my eyes is Ledesma. Having only seen the guy play on the limited highlights of ‘The Football League Show’, my opinion is based upon what are essentially ‘the best bits’. But he appears to be a fine footballer, has a decent delivery, is creative but also keeps things ticking over by cycling the ball nicely. It would not surprise me to see Bristol adopt a 4-5-1 formation to try and nullify the ‘Boro midfield. I’d like to see Ishmael Miller, or former Coventry striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, start up top for ‘Boro. Both of them have a physical presence which I feel would really rattle the nerves of a clearly fragile defence. When watching the highlights of Middlesbrough’s last match, I noticed that Ledesma knew who to whip in a cross, especially from dead ball situations, which could work to a big man’s benefit.
I’m likely to go with a Boro win -1. The odds should be better than expected due to the defeat they suffered against Cardiff, even though they outplayed the eventual victors according to several reports I have read.
Sheff Weds v LEICESTER
The cheetah is the fastest land animal, capable of running at speeds of 70mph. No, actually Mr. Attenborough, it’s Lloyd Dyer.
After staying up to make sure I got to see Coventry’s five goals against Hartlepool, one thing that I notice throughout the programme was that the majority of the goals scored in the football league that weekend were aided in one way or another by some form of poor defending. It was actually unbelievable that the level of defending on show from Championship level down to League Two had been so poor. Obviously a certain percentage of goals every week will be courtesy of a defensive boo-boo, but it was glaringly obvious that a higher than normal proportion of the weekends goal tally could be attributed to this. However, due to this blatancy, those that were the culmination of fine team play or individual brilliance were also more apparent. The goal, and in fact the performance, that caught my eye was that of Leicester’s Lloyd Dyer. This guy has got some serious speed. Like, he’s really, really fast. It was this trait that alone won the penalty for Leicester’s first goal. For his own strike, Leicester 3rd which in effect killed the game, he attacked the Ipswich full back at such speed, whilst keeping the ball under close control, that the outcome was nigh on inevitable. He resembled an on form Antonio Valencia; bursting with acceleration, sustainable speed, direct and decisive plays. These attributes were utilised again for the fourth goal before sliding the ball across goal for a sitter that his colleague could not miss, and once more for the sixth. I highly recommend trying to find the highlights of the game to fully appreciate his display. Against Sheffield Wednesday I can see Dyer being pivotal in the outcome of the game. Wednesday are likely to play Lewis Buxton at RB, but as honest a player as he may be, he doesn’t have the pace to compete with that of Dyer’s. I can see him being in for a torrid time. After a 4-game winless run which has seen the Foxes drop a few places, I can see the 6-0 demolition job of Ipswich being the catalyst for a good run of form. It shouldn’t be out of the question, as before coming up against Cardiff on December 22nd they have 5 win-able games. Wednesday’s home form is unimpressive but could be worse, having won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 (10/24 points). Having scored 11 and conceded 14, its fair to say that it is their defence that has been letting them down – Blackburn currently sit in 5th place with a home record of W5 D1 L2, scoring 9 and conceding 6. A tight backline can go a long way in any league. Leicester haven’t really travelled well this year, with a record of W2 D2 L4. They have managed just 9 goals away from home, conceding 10. But the impetus of a 6-0 win should not be ignored. Confidence will be high in the away dressing room, whereas every morale sapping defeat that Wednesday suffer will inevitably eat away at the self-belief that boss Dave Jones continually tried to instill in his side by irrepressibly claiming that “there’s no team in this division better than us. They might have a bit more composure in front of goal but that’s it”. Stop it Dave, just stop it, as it would seem that there’s 20 teams currently better than you in this division; 4 wins from 17 games is fooling nobody, especially when 2 of those came way back in August. Away win, and we could see the net bulge a few times.
Bury v BOURNEMOUTH
Sometimes the grass doesn’t turn out to be greener…
Eddie Howe could be to Bournemouth, as SAF is to United. Potentially, in relative turns, at least. After 100 matches at Bournemouth, the highlight of which was promotion to League One, Howe became manager of Burnley. He saw it as an upgrade. He traded in the girl he loved for one which seemed more attractive, and for a while it went okay. But then it stalled. They didn’t click. And so he reunited with Bournemouth. Since then, Howe and Bournemouth have won 6 and drew 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions. The union just works. It’s his club.
This weekend they come up against a Bury side who are in decent form. They were on a 3 game winning run until Colchester recorded a 2-0 win against them. During this mini-run of form, they faced Portsmouth and Oldham in the League. Portsmouth had lost 4 matches on the bounce prior to their meeting, and the match after. They had just lost their Manager a few days before, so a Bury win in that match was no surprise really. Their second win, against Oldham, was a decent victory. Oldham are an inconsistent side who started shockingly but found a little purple patch prior to the loss to Bury, losing just 1 of the previous 7 fixtures. Midweek Bury picked up an important win against fellow strugglers Scunthorpe, which will grant them a confidence boost going into this match up with Bournemouth.
I’m going against recent head to head form on this, perhaps unwisely. Bury have won the last three meetings between the sides, each time by a 1 goal margin. Generally if a side has won the last 3 meetings I would steer well clear. Of the two League 1 games I’ve featured, I would say that this is not the safest of bets due to Bury’s form. However, the power of resurgence is a strong one. Bournemouth have belief, they are on a roll, have direction, and their form is good. I can see O2.5 in this match aswell, as Bournemouth have the ability to score as demonstrate in their 4-1 demolition of Oldham, whilst there has been at least 2 goals in Bury’s last 4 matches.
COVENTRY v Portsmouth
Through sky blue tinted goggles…
I very, very rarely back my supported team, Coventry City; mainly because we are generally as useful as a chocolate kettle when it comes to playing football. ‘Holding a lead’ is a phrase rarely muttered throughout the Sky Blue Army. ‘We’re playing some good football’ is equally as infrequent. But most of all, the fans have been asking to have a goalscorer, a talisman, a figure of hope, for many a year now. It would appear that under relatively new boss Mark Robins, the above dreams are becoming reality at the Ricoh. After a jaw dropping 5-0 spanking of Hartlepool, this was followed up by an equally impressive, if not more so, 3-1 away win over Colchester. Key to the recent run of form is the performances and goals of loanee David McGoldrick. I remember playing Football Manager (or CM, whichever version it was then…) about 4 or 5 years ago when he was a promising player at Southampton. As everyone knows, FM is 100% reliable for players potential (Supat Rungratsumee / Cherno Samba, anyone?). But I believed the game at this time. McGoldrick has so far failed to live up to both virtual and reality based expectations of him. Yet, for a reason unbeknown to me, he’s found both himself, and the back of the net, at CCFC. His loan deal expires in January, at which point if he doesn’t join permanently we shouldn’t be too surprised. He is clearly a step up from League 1, and if Forest don’t want him, it is almost guarantee that somebody else in the Championship will. But for now, he’s ours, and he’s playing on Sunday, and he will score. Over the last 5 games, Coventry are actually one of the form sides in the league (it’s actually true!). Quite simply, Portsmouth aren’t. Michael Appleton was doing what is known as a ‘respectable job’ at Fratton Park before he quite rightly left for job security at Blackpool. Before he left they had lost 4 on the spin, and since he left they’ve lost the next 3. They haven’t had their pants pulled down in any of these matches, but alarmingly they have only scored in 2 of them. This is why I feel Coventry could take the 3 points. If the threat against the CCFC goal is minimal, for once we can almost rely on our attackers, David McG in particular, to find the net. It’s a refreshing thought. After our goalscoring exploits recently, a hopeful Coventry -1 or +0.5 goals AH might be nice too! Don’t screw me Cov, it will hurt!
Oxford v NORTHAMPTON
Adebayo Akinfenwa is the reason why after a KFC I still believe I can turn pro…
In modern day football, it is generally expected that players are able, if not willing, to run for 90 minutes, and that they look after their physique. An exception to this is Adebayo Akinfenwa. The guy is huge, yet he has eclipsed 100 career goals. This season he has been a focal point of Northampton’s attack. After reading through a few Northampton dominated forums I’m reliable informed that the once ‘rotund’ journeyman is now pure muscle. It makes you wonder what Emile Heskey could have achieved had he got the balls and desire to drop down a league or two and stay within the English game. However, after watching a few clips of Northamptons games this season, i can see similarities with a more special player – Dimitar Berbatov (no joke…). I came across a blog titled ‘Too Fat to Play Football?’, in which a comparison is made:
It is questionable how a player so massive is able to play football. The answer can be summed up with the following quote from a Bristol Rovers forum. ” Akinfenwa doesn’t get knackered because he hardly runs around. There are players that are naturally large and there are fat and lazy players. He’s fat and lazy. If he bothered to get himself properly fit he’d be a menace higher up the leagues.” There is no denying the fact that he is on the large size. Having taken a keen interest in the striker largely due to his weight, I have noticed that his awareness and first touch are so good that they would not look out of place in the Championship. Dimitar Berbatov has been described as the master of walking football. Perhaps Akinfenwa could be seen as the lower league equivalent?
Now no-one is suggesting he is anywhere near as good as Berba. The Bulgarian appears lazy because he knows his team mates will give him the ball, and when he has it, football comes naturally. Why run if the ball will come to you? Akinfenwa doesn’t run, because he probably can’t. After listening to his recent post match interview, he sounded like he had taken a few blows to the head, outlining that he doesnt really know when he’s scored in him ramblings. Perhaps he played Rugby (he certainly has the physique for it) when he was younger and took a few blows to the head, as he sounded like he was a penny short of the pound when i listened to him. This hasn’t detracted from his performance this season though, and with this guy in form I can see Northampton getting the better of Oxford this weekend. He is the ideal striker to play away from home and with Northampton relatively difficult to score against, having conceded 25 goals all year (a respectable figure in the context of the league), I can see an away win. I wouldn’t expect a high scoring game, maybe 1-0 might be worth a shot. Oxford have been better than have been bad at home this year, but their inconsistency (W4 D2 L3) leads me to trust in recent form: Northampton – WDWWW / Oxford – WLDLD.
Aldershot v Port Vale
When you have the Pope on your side…
Earlier in the season I won various bets backing a Port Vale win with Tom Pope to score. Over the last few weeks Port Vale have gone off the boil somewhat, picking up 4 points (4 draws) out of a possible 15. However, in their last match against a struggling Bristol Rovers, Pope fired in a hat trick to guarantee his side the 3 points in a 4-0 win. Port Vale have recently confirmed that a much needed takeover has been completed, a transfer embargo lifted allowing Micky Adams to potentially bring in reinforcements. Coupled with such an emphatic victory, the feeling around the club is a buoyant one, which could lead to a positive run of results.
Aldershot go into the match in indifferent form. In their last 5 matches in all competitions they have a record of WDLDW. Picking up a win in their last game is likely to be behind why you can get decent odds on Port Vale winning this match. I think Vale a great value for a win here, especially when you look at both home/away form and head to head. At home, Aldershot have W1 D2 L6, conceding 11 and scoring a pitiful 2 goals. Away from home, Vale have W5 D2 L2, scoring 15 and conceding 9 goals. The head to head history doesn’t do Aldershot any favours either, with Port Vale winning the last 4 encounters over the last 2 seasons.
Form & the feel good factor are my reasons behind backing Port Vale. Potential side bets of Pope to score and Vale to win, Port Vale -1, and O2.5 goals could also come in here.
Summary:
Lower Confidence
1) Arsenal, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leicester, Bournemouth, Coventry, Northampton, Port Vale
Small stake accumulator, 4fold & 6fold BetVictor @ 572/1
2) Arsenal v Aston Villa – BTTS BetVictor @ 1.62/1
3) Tom Pope to score and Port Vale to win PaddyPower @ 3.1/1
4) Northampton 1-0 Win Bet365 @ 11/1
5) Sunderland v West Brom Draw / 0-0 BetVictor @ 11/1
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Medium Confidence:
1) Coventry -1 BetFred @ 3.4/1
2) Coventry +0.5 AH Bet365 @ 1.28/1
3) David McGoldrick Anytime BetVictor @ 2/1
4) West Brom +0.5 AH BetVictor @ 1.64/1
5) Middlesbrough -1 Bet365 @ 2.07/1
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High Confidence:
1) Aldershot v Port Vale O2.5 goals Bet365 @ 1.95/1
2) Port Vale -1 Ladbrokes @ 4.5/1
3) Sheff Wednesday v Leicester O2.5 Goals Coral @ 1.91/1
4) Bury v Bournemouth O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.8/1
The Soccer Surgeon 
