05 / 04 / 2014
Newcastle v MAN UNITED
I think United will be bouyed by their performance against Bayern Munich, and facing a Newcastle side whose manager openly questions their desire and ability to get pumped up for games leads me to think this game will result in an away win.
WOLVES v Peterborough
Recent defeats to Rotherham and Preston lead me to question Peterborough’s ability to better the teams in League who possess more quality, and Wolves certainly have this in their squad.
CHESTERFIELD v Newport
Chesterfield have the 2nd best home record in League Two, and the play host to Newport who are the 17th best away side. Despite ending a 3 game losing run away from home with a defeat against bottom side Torquay, i feel they will experience the taste of defeat again this weekend.
Torquay v SCUNTHORPE
The 2nd worst home side in League two welcome the best away side in the division this weekend. Quality should shine through in this match as Scunthorpe look for 3 valuable points as they attempt to maintain their promotion push.
GATESHEAD v Tamworth
Unbeaten in 6 (W4 D2), Gateshead are full of confidence at the moment. Tamworth on the other hand are in freefall, winless in their last 6 (D1, L5). Away from home they have now lost 7 in a row, whereas Gateshead have lost just once at home since late September 2013 (W9, D5 .
Hereford v WOKING
Hereford are without a win since January, losing 8 and drawing 4 games since then and they now find themselves just 1 point above the drop zone. Woking have won 5 games on the spin now, conceding just 1 goal on this run, beating some tough sides in the process. An away win for me.
25 / 03 / 2014
ARSENAL v Swansea
BURNLEY v Doncaster
LEICESTER v Yeovil
READING v Barnsley
WOLVES v Colchester
Cheltenham v SCUNTHORPE
ROCHDALE v Portsmouth
YORK v Torquay
The above 8 games all seem like solid choices to me. Apart from Scunthorpe, the selected sides should all benefit from home advantage, as well as facing sides in less than impressive form.
Arsenal have a point to prove after their capitulation against Chelsea, and with Swansea having a shocking away record the Gunners should bounce back with a win.
Each win Burnley can record edges them 1 step closer to the riches of the Premier League, and although their opponents are unbeaten in 4, the 3 wins they have recorded have all been at home, with their away record leaving much to be desired.
Leicester’s home record of W14 D3 L1 comes up against Yeovil’s away record of W3 D5 L10, and you can only see this tie going in favour of the Foxes.
Reading have made themselves difficult to beat recently, and as they host a Barnsley side who have lost their last 3 games whilst failing to score in any of them, the Royal should have enough about them to secure a home win.
Colchester are in real danger of slipping into the thick of the relegation battle, and unfortunately they travel to Wolves who themselves required the 3 points to maintain their automatic promotion challenge. The quality of the home side should see them victorious.
Although Cheltenham have been quite decent at home recently being unbeaten in 3 picking up 7 points, these results came against Bury (19th), Wycombe (21st) and Torquay (24th). They host a Scunthorpe side who are 2nd in the League, and have not lost an away game since October 2013. An away win for me to end Cheltenham’s good little run.
Rochdale sit top of the table after 3 wins on the bounce, and the confidence this will bring should see them beat a Pompey side who have scored just 1 goal in 5 games and sit in 22nd.
York are the in form side in League Two right now, and in fact have lost just twice in 2014. Five wins on the bounce and unbeaten in 9, they face bottom side Torquay.
22 / 03 / 2014
Hi All,
Sorry, have had little time this week to provide a write up, but with a long list of fixtures there are several that i like the look of…
Cardiff v LIVERPOOL
EVERTON v Swansea
MAN CITY v Fulham
Blackburn v LEICESTER
Charlton v BURNLEY
BRENTFORD v Coventry
Exeter v FLEETWOOD
Portsmouth v YORK
Wycombe v ROCHDALE
LUTON v Chester
Of these fixtures a nice four fold can be made of Everton, Liverpool, Burnley & Brentford, paying at 10/1
Why not stick a tiny stake on the full 10 fold @ 480/1
Good Luck!!!
15 / 03 / 2014
EVERTON v Cardiff
League Position / Record
Everton currently find themselves sitting in 7th position in the league and will be looking to leapfrog Man United into 6th with a victory over Cardiff, who are currently 18th. Everton have a record of W13 D9 L5 in the league this season, with a GD of +11. Their opponents have a record of W6 D7 L16 in the league this season, with a GD of -28.
Home v Away
Everton’s home record in the league reads as W9 D3 L1, scoring 24 goals and conceding 10, leaving them with a home GD of +14, whilst Cardiff’s away league record reads as W1 D3 L10, and after finding the net just 7 times and letting in 27 goals, they have an away GD of -20. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 34 favouring Everton. The Toffee’s have scored in 10 of their 13 home games whilst Cardiff have found the net in just 6 of their 14 away games. Roberto Martinez’s side have kept 10 clean sheets this season, 6 of which were at home. Their opponents have managed to secure a clean sheet in 6 of their games this season, achieving this in 2 away games.
Recent Fixtures
In the recent fixtures between the sides, it is level pegging after a 0-0 draw back in August 2013.
Summary
For me, I feel that Everton will end up coming away with the 3 points in this fixture. This is due to the quality that they possess, with several players who can produce something special. Everton are currently the 5th best home team in the league on form, and facing a side that are ranked as the worst away side in the league should give them the confidence to go and secure the win which will maintain their push for a European place.
BURNLEY v Leeds
League Position / Record
Burnley currently find themselves sitting in 2nd position in the league and a win against 15th placed Leeds in this fixture will tighten their grip on the 2nd automatic promotion spot. Burnley have a record of W19 D13 L3 in the league this season, with a GD of +27. Their opponents have a record of W12 D8 L14 in the league this season, with a GD of -2.
Home v Away
Burnley’s home record in the league reads as W11 D6 L0, scoring 30 goals and conceding 10, leaving them with a home GD of +20, whilst Leeds’ away league record reads as W5 D4 L8, and after finding the net 18 times and letting in 25 goals, they have an away GD of -7. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring Burnley. The Clarets have scored in 15 of their 17 home games whilst Leeds have found the net in 10 of their 17 away games. Burnley have kept 13 clean sheets this season, 8 of which were at home. Their opponents Leeds have managed to secure a clean sheet in 8 of their games this season, achieving this in 4 away games.
Recent Fixtures
In the recent fixtures between the sides, it is Leeds who lead the way after picking up several wins when facing Burnley, yet In the most recent corresponding fixture when Burnley were at home, the game ended in a 1-0 win for The Clarets, who also won this seasons fixture at Elland Road by 1 goal to nil.
Summary
For me, I feel that Sean Dyche’s Burnley side will end up coming away with the 3 points in this fixture. This is due to the ability to make home advantage count, and against a Leeds side who have shipped 9 goals in their last 2 games, taking the lead could make life much easier for Burnley. Being ranked as the 2nd best home side in the division is a fine achievement, and they should have real ambitions of putting away Leeds considering they are slap bang in the middle of away side rankings in 12th.
LEICESTER v Blackpool
League Position / Record
Leicester currently find themselves sitting in top spot in the Championship and will be looking to stay true in the quest for Premier League football next season when they face Blackpool, who are currently 18th. Leicester have a record of W24 D5 L5 in the league this season, with a GD of +33. Their opponents have a record of W9 D11 L15 in the league this season, with a GD of -19.
Home v Away
Leicester’s home record in the league reads as W13 D3 L1, scoring 37 goals and conceding 15, leaving them with a home GD of +22, whilst Blackpool’s away league record reads as W3 D5 L9, and after finding the net 13 times and letting in 39 goals, they have an away GD of -26. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 48 favouring the home side, Leicester. Nigel Pearson’s side have have scored in 15 of their 17 home games whilst Blackpool have found the net in 10 of their 17 away games, but notably are goal-less in their last 3. The Foxes have kept 12 clean sheets this season, boosted by 3 in their last 3 games, 7 of which were at home. Their opponents Blackpool have managed to secure a clean sheet in 10 of their games this season, achieving this in 3 away games.
Recent Fixtures
Since 2009, the fixtures between the sides have invariably fell the way of Leicester, who have picked up W4 D3 L0 when facing Blackpool, and have won the last 3 home games between the sides. Earlier in the season when the sides met and Blackpool were at home, the match finished in a 2-2 draw.
Summary
For me, I feel that Leicester will end up coming away with the 3 points in this fixture. This is due to their ability to score when at home, which should be inevitable against a Blackpool side who concede an average of 2 per game when away from home. When the #1 home side meet the 19th best away side, you can only really expect one outcome.
WATFORD v Barnsley
League Position / Record
Watford currently find themselves sitting in 11th position in the league and will be looking to boost any outside chances they have of a play-off place when they face Barnsley this weekend, who are currently 23rd. Watford have a record of W11 D12 L11 in the league this season, with a GD of +8. Their opponents have a record of W6 D11 L17 in the league this season, with a GD of -28.
Home v Away
Watford’s home record in the league reads as W8 D3 L6, scoring 25 goals and conceding 16, leaving them with a home GD of +9, whilst Barnsley’s away league record reads as W1 D4 L11, and after finding the net 11 times and letting in 29 goals, they have an away GD of -18. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring Watford. The Hornets have scored in 12 of their 17 home games whilst Barnsley have found the net in 7 of their 16 away games. Watford have kept 9 clean sheets this season, 7 of which were at home. Their opponents Barnsley have managed to secure a clean sheet in just 5 of their games this season, achieving this in just 1 away game.
Recent Fixtures
In the recent fixtures between the sides, it is Watford who lead the way after picking up W3 D1 L1 when facing Barnsley. In the most recent corresponding fixture when Watford were at home, the game ended in a 4-1 home win. Earlier in the season when Watford travelled to Barnsley, they came out comfortable winners by 5 goals to 1.
Summary
For me, I feel that Watford will end up coming away with a home win in this fixture. This is due to their recent home form in which they have won 4 on the bounce, scoring 8 and keeping a clean sheet in each match. Their opponents have not won away from home since December 2013, and I expect them to struggle against an opponent they historically have trouble getting the better off.
Watford are currently the 14th best home team in the league on form, and facing a side who are ranked as the worst away side in the league should give them the confidence to go and secure their 5th home win on the trot.
ROTHERHAM v Walsall
League Position / Record
Rotherham currently find themselves sitting in 5th position in the league and will have to play well if they want to secure victory this weekend when they face Walsall, who are currently 8th. Rotherham have a record of W18 D11 L6 in the league this season, with a GD of +23. Their opponents have a record of W12 D12 L12 in the league this season, with a GD of +1.
Home v Away
Rotherham’s home record in the league reads as W7 D7 L3, scoring 35 goals and conceding 26, leaving them with a home GD of +9, whilst Walsall’s away league record reads as W6 D7 L5, and after finding the net 22 times and letting in 15 goals, they have an away GD of +7. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 2 favouring Rotherham. Rotherham have scored in 13 of their 17 home games whilst Walsall have found the net in 13 of their 18 away games. Rotherham have kept 10 clean sheets this season, notably 3 in their last 3 games, & 3 of their 10 clean sheets have came at home. Their opponents Walsall have managed to secure a clean sheet in 9 of their games this season, achieving this in 6 away games.
Recent Fixtures
We can only really take into consideration the previous game between the two sides this season when looking at recent results between the two sides, and this game finished as a 1-1 draw.
Summary
For me, I feel that Rotherham should take maximum points, mainly due to their excellent recent form having won 8 from 11, drawing the other 3, since a defeat to Coventry City on New Years Day. With Walsall winless in 8 having lost 5 and drew 3, it is clear which side heads into the tie with confidence.
WOLVES v Shrewsbury
League Position / Record
Wolves currently find themselves top of the pile in League One and could extend their lead at the top as 2nd place Leyton Orient face 3rd place Brentford in an early fixture. Wolves face Shrewsbury, who are currently 23rd. Wolves have a record of W23 D7 L4 in the league this season, with a GD of +43. Their opponents have a record of W7 D12 L16 in the league this season, with a GD of -13.
Home v Away
Wolves’ home record in the league reads as W13 D3 L2, scoring 33 goals and conceding 9, leaving them with a home GD of +24, whilst Shrewsbury’s away league record reads as W3 D5 L8, and after finding the net 18 times and letting in 27 goals, they have an away GD of -9. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 33 favouring Wolves. Kenny Jacketts side have scored in 15 of their 18 home games whilst Shrewsbury have found the net in 11 of their 16 away games. Wolves have kept 18 clean sheets this season, 11 of which were at home. Their opponents Shrewsbury have managed to secure a clean sheet in 7 of their games this season, achieving this in 1 away game.
Recent Fixtures
Earlier in the season Wolves won their away fixture against Shrewsbury by 1 goal to nil.
Summary
For me, I feel that Wolves will end up coming away with a comfortable victory and the 3 points in this fixture. This is due to their recent display which have earned them 9 consecutive league wins, during this run of results they have secured 4 clean sheets and scored at least 2 goals per game. With Shrewsbury struggling to keep clean sheets away from home this seems like a recipe for disaster.
Wolves are currently the 2nd best home team in the league on form, and facing a side who are ranked as the 5th worst away side in the league should ensure they approach this game full of confidence knowing they have the quality to turn over their opponents.
ROCHDALE v Accrington
League Position / Record
Rochdale currently find themselves sitting in 3rd position in the league and after suffering a shock defeat to bottom side Torqauy in their last fixture will be looking to return to winning ways when they face Accrington, who are currently 21st. Rochdale have a record of W18 D7 L10 in the league this season, with a GD of +16. Their opponents have a record of W10 D11 L14 in the league this season, with a GD of -6.
Home v Away
Rochdale’s home record in the league reads as W12 D2 L4, scoring 35 goals and conceding 18, leaving them with a home GD of +17, whilst Accrington’s away league record reads as W6 D3 L8, and after finding the net 16 times and letting in 22 goals, they have an away GD of -6. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 23 favouring Rochdale. The home side have scored in 16 of their 18 home games whilst Accrington have found the net in 11 of their 17 away games. Rochdale have kept 13 clean sheets this season, 8 of which were at home. Their opponents Accrington have managed to secure a clean sheet in 9 of their games this season, achieving this in 5 away games.
Recent Fixtures
In the recent fixtures between the sides, it is Rochdale who just edge it between the side after picking up W3 D0 L2 when facing Accrington. Slightly worrying however is the fact that in these last 5 fixtures, the victor has always been the away side. However, earlier in the season Rochdale managed to secure a win against this weekends opponents with a 2 goals to 1 away victory.
Summary
For me, I feel that Rochdale should have too much quality on the day and should expect to pick up the 3 points against Accrington. With Rochdale currently ranked as the #1 home side in League Two, they should be looking to prove why this is so against an Accrington side who are ranked as just the 14th best away side.
CAMBRIDGE v Dartford
League Position / Record
Cambridge currently find themselves sitting in 2nd position the Football Conference and after a run of indifferent form will hope to return to winning ways after a decent draw at top placed Luton in their last fixture. They face an encounter with Dartford this weekend who currently reside in 22nd spot, firmly within a relegation battle. Cambridge have a record of W17 D11 L6 in the league this season, with a GD of +28. Their opponents have a record of W9 D6 L21 in the league this season, with a GD of -23.
Home v Away
Cambridge’s home record in the league reads as W13 D2 L2, scoring 35 goals and conceding 7, leaving them with a home GD of +28, whilst Dartford’s away league record reads as W3 D3 L12, and after finding the net 13 times and letting in 34 goals, they have an away GD of -21. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 49 favouring Cambridge. Cambridge have scored in 15 of their 17 home games whilst Dartford have found the net in 7 of their 18 away games. Cambridge have kept 18 clean sheets this season, 11 of which were at home. Their opponents Dartford have managed to secure a clean sheet in 6 of their games this season, achieving this in 2 away games.
Recent Fixtures
Last season Dartford won this corresponding fixture, however this result has been followed by 2 away draws for Cambridge. Clearly these results don’t scream a straightforward Cambridge win, which is why I am glad that the sides relative home/away form are so far apart.
Summary
For me, I feel that Cambridge will build on their draw with Luton and end up coming away with the spoils in this fixture. This is due to Cambridges defensive record when playing at home being unlikely to be too dramatically damaged by Dartford’s goal shy strikers.
Cambridge are currently considered as the 3rd best home team in the league on form, and facing a side who are ranked as the 5th worst away side in the league should give them all the pre-match confidence that they need to go and record a solid home win.
HEREFORD v Hyde
League Position / Record
Hereford currently find themselves sitting in 19th position in the league, but this low sitting in the table doesn’t deter me as they face Hyde who are currently 24th, and are already relegated. Hereford have a record of W10 D11 L15 in the league this season, with a GD of -13. Their opponents have a record of W1 D6 L30 in the league this season, with a GD of -66.
Home v Away
Hereford’s home record in the league reads as W8 D5 L5, scoring 21 goals and conceding 18, leaving them with a home GD of +3, whilst Hyde’s away league record reads as W1 D3 L14, and after finding the net 16 times and letting in 50 goals, they have an away GD of -34. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 37 favouring Hereford. The Bulls have scored in 13 of their 18 home games whilst Hyde have found the net in 10 of their 18 away games. Hereford have kept 8 clean sheets this season, 6 of which were at home. Their opponents Hyde have managed to secure a clean sheet in 1 of their games this season, achieving this in an away game. Hardly impressive i’m sure you will agree!
Recent Fixtures
In the recent fixtures between the sides, it is actually Hyde who lead the way after picking up W2 D1 L0 when facing Hereford, however earlier this season the sides played out a 2-2 draw.
Summary
For me, I feel that Hereford will end up coming away with a comfortable 3 points in this fixture. This is due to the complete lack of quality in the Hyde side, and having already been relegated they could lack the desire to secure the win against Hereford.
Hereford are currently the 18th best home team in the league on form, and facing a side who are unsurprisingly ranked as the worst away side in the league means the expected result should be a formality.
9-Fold @ 57/1 – Take you pick for the games or back them all…the choice is yours!
Ive also gone small stakes on 8 Double Chances as shown below…
08 / 03 / 2014
DERBY v Millwall
Derby succumbed to a quality Burnley side in their last fixture but prior to that loss they had been in excellent form. They currently have a home record that reads as W9 D3 L4, scoring 29 and conceding 20. They have also managed to post 3 clean sheets in their last 4 home games. Millwall sit 1 point above drop zone but have played 3 games more than Charlton. They have an away record this season of W1 D5 L10, scoring 12 and conceding 35. These stats provide a home/away GD swing of 32 favouring Derby. Considering that Millwall have failed to score in 7 away games this season, as long as Derby perform they should take the points.
Notts County v LEYTON ORIENT
Notts County have been in absolutely awful form recently, losing 6 of their last 7 games and it is this abysmal recent record that makes me back their opponents, Leyton Orient. County actually have a home record of W7 D1 L8, scoring 27 and conceding 22. Leyton Orient travel to Nottingham with an away record of W10 D5 L2, scoring 33 and conceding 17. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 11 favouring Leyton Orient. Interestingly, despite Notts County’s topsy turvy home record, one thing has been consistent and that is their performance against the divisions better sides. Leyton Orient are joined in the top 6 by Wolves, Brentford, Preston, Rotherham & Peterborough, all of whom beat County when they were the away side.
Walsall v WOLVES
Wolves have really shown their quality of late recording 7 wins on the bounce, and sitting top of the league at this stage of the season, albeit on goal difference, is a strong position to be in. The travel the short distance to Walsall, who find themselves in 8th position after a run of 4 defeats in 5 games saw them relinquish their strong play off position. Walsall have a home record of W6 D4 L6, scoring 17 and conceding 19. Wolves travel looking to build on an away record that reads as W8 D4 L2, scoring 24 and conceding 11. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 favouring Wolves.
Treble @ 7.00
The Soccer Surgeon 