01 / 09 / 2013

It really is Super Sunday this weekend with Liverpool hosting Manchester United followed by Tottenhams visit to arch rivals Arsenal.

Liverpool v Manchester United

After watching the utter dross that was Man United v Chelsea earlier in the week, it was more than obvious that Jose Mourinho had decided to go to Old Trafford and not risk defeat, settling for a draw and hoping to nick a win. This meant that the onus was on United to seize the game and claim a win against their title rivals, but the Red Devils just didnt produce. As the current champions who have ambitions to retain their crown, United will have expected to take 4 points or more from the fixtures against Chelsea and Liverpool. For me, this means that the pressure is now on Man United as if they lose to Liverpool then questions will be asked of Moyes and his men in regards to whether they have the appetite and ability to dominate against their rivals. Granted that if they win or draw this match then they will remain unbeaten in what has been a tough start to their season, yet if they lose against Liverpool then many will see it as two games in which they haven’t won against big rivals.

So far this season Liverpool have won both of their games and kept two clean sheets in what has been an impressive start to the campaign. Brendan Rodgers will be hoping to avoid going into the international break with a defeat against their major rivals looming in his squads minds, and will be relatively confident of coming away from this match with at least a point. The fluidity and pace of Liverpools attack has the potential to cause Uniteds defence some issues, whilst Uniteds lack of creativity against Chelsea will offer some confidence to the Liverpool back line who hope to record another clean sheet.

Something that could prove crucial to the outcome of the tie is the number of injury concerns that Liverpool have to contend with coming into the game. In their midweek cup tie against Notts County which ran into extra time Liverpool picked up injuries to defensive duo Kolo Toure and Aly Cissokho and midfielder Joe Allen. It seems that if Toure fails to recover from his groin problem then Liverpool will look to replace him with Martin Skrtel, should he sufficiently recover from a knee injury. Replacing 1 injured players with another (not fully fit), isnt ideal for any team. Even if the injury situation does not prove to much of an issue for Brendan Rodgers, then the fatigue his players may experience due to playing 120 minutes midweek may cause him a headache.

PAST THREE MEETINGS…

Man United 2 (Van Persie, Vidic) Liverpool 1(Sturridge), Premier League, Jan 2013

Liverpool 1 (Gerrard) Man United 2 (Rafael, Van Persie), Premier League, Sept 2012

Man United 2(Rooney 2) Liverpool 1 (Suarez), Premier League, Feb 2012

Looking at the previous 3 meetings between the sides, United have won each tie 2-1, with Van Persie finding the net in each of last seasons meetings. Clearly United have enjoyed facing Liverpool of late,  with United winning more Premier League points here (34) than any other visiting team, while their 10 wins at Anfield is four more than any other club have managed in the Premier League era (Arsenal have won six). Yet on the contrary we have new United manager David Moyes’ personal (Everton) record when visiting Anfield, which is a bit of a miserable read.  In 12 trips to Anfield, all as Everton manager, Moyes lost five and drew seven. Under SAF United clearly found a winning formula, so if Moyes tries to influence the way United play to his liking, then it appears they may struggle and fair less favorably than they have over the last few games.

Personally, I think both teams would love to avoid defeat here, and whilst i think United will edge it, i’d take advantage of the odds currently available and back them on the +0.25 Asian Handicap. If you cant find this you can select United at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if United the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.

Scorewise, id look at 1-1 or 2-1 (United win).

Arsenal v Tottenham

The North London derby is always a tasty affair, and i expect this one to live up to expectations. A lot has been made of the contrasts of fortunes that both sides have experienced in the summer transfer window so far, and i feel that it could prove crucial in this encounter between the two sides. After both sides played European football midweek, Arsenal’s lack of squad depth could see their players tired, whilst Tottenham’s ability to rotate should ensure freshness amongst their players. In their 3-0 win over Dinamo Tbilisi, you could count at least 5 players for Spurs who would not be considered first 11 regulars, yet the comfortable nature of their win suggests that not only do they have squad depth, but that quality is flowing throughout. If we look at Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Fenerbahce, its fair to say that at least 9 of the players who started the game are considered first choice for Arsene Wenger, whilst The Gunners had five under-21s on the bench against Fulham recently and they’ve picked up another injury since.

It is in the middle of the park that i feel Spurs could dominate this game. The previous matches between the two sides have seen both Arsenal and Spurs adopt high lines, which has contributed to the amount of goals in the games. For me, if Arsenal does this is could be disastrous. When playing a high line, the midfield must put sufficient pressure on the ball so that through balls are prevented. Consistent, effective pressure is not something you would claim to be one of the Arsenal midfields strengths. This job is one for a combative, energetic, tough tackling type of player. Do Spurs have a player such as this? Well yes, they can pick from Mousa Dembele, Etienne Capoue and Paulinho, even Sandro, when looking for somebody to take on that role. I would suggest that the Spurs midfield players particular attention to Cazorla (no surprise there) due to him being particularly adept at playing through balls. Whoever it is that AVB selects to try to neutralize Cazorla should possess the athleticism required to cause Cazorla to second think any ideas he has of running past the opposition midfield, forcing him to pass. As long as the through ball are cut out, Spurs should feel less worried when one of the little Spaniards team mates receives the ball from him, knowing that they have both done their job and whomever he passes to is less likely to trouble their goal.

I dont envisage there being the goal fest that some expect due to several points. First of all, Lukas Podolski has played a hand in eight goals (scoring five and assisting three) in his last seven Premier League starts for Arsenal. As we all know the German is out injured so he could be a big miss when it comes to finding the net for Arsenal. For Tottenham, Gareth Bale has scored more goals against Arsenal in the Premier League than any other opposition, finding the net five times in 10 appearances, whilst scoring in both meetings between the teams last season. Again, we know he wont be taking to the field on Sunday due to his impending move to Real Madrid. Despite these two attacking absences, i still expect there to be Over 2.5 Goals, and considering that 13 of the last 14 league matches between Tottenham and Arsenal have achieved this, i should be a relatively safe bet. I don’t doubt that there are likely to be goals, but being so early into the season neither are going to want to give too much away to a rival for a champions league place,  much like in the Man United v Chelsea fixture recently.

As with United in the first game, I’ll be taking Tottenham on +0.25 AH, or If you cant find this you can select Spurs at 0, +0.5. This means that you win if Spurs win the match. If they draw, half your stake is returned and half is a winner at the odds taken.