2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction
For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really. The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.
05 / 03 / 2013
Just a short outline of the stats which lead me to back the indicated teams in this set of mid-week fixtures from the English divisions.
CARDIFF v Derby
Cardiff home form – W13 D1 L2, Scored 27 & Conceded 11
Derby away form – W3 D4 L10, Scored 16 & Conceded 30
Home / Away GD Swing – 30 (Favours Cardiff)
Cardiff recent form (5 Games) – DWLWL
Derby recent form (5 Games) – LDDLL
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Cardiff Wins = 4 Draws = 1 Derby Wins = 0
NOTTM FOREST v Ipswich
Nottm Forest home form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 28 & Conceded 21
Ipswich away form – W5 D4 L8, Scored 12 & Conceded 30
Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Nottm Forest)
Nottm Forest recent form (5 Games) – LDWWW
Ipswich recent form (5 Games) – LWLDW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Nottm Forest Wins = 4 Draws = 0 Ipswich Wins = 1
MK Dons v DONCASTER
MK Dons home form – W8 D4 L4, Scored 23 & Conceded 17
Doncaster away form –W11 D4 L2, Scored 28 & Conceded 13
Home / Away GD Swing – 9 (Favours Doncaster)
MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LDDDD
Doncaster recent form (5 Games) – DDDWW
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – MK Dons Wins = 0 Draws = 1 Doncaster Wins = 0
Stevenage v BRENTFORD
Stevenage home form – W4 D5 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 29
Brentford away form – W6 D7 L3, Scored 19 & Conceded 16
Home / Away GD Swing – 12 (Favours Brentford)
Stevenage recent form (5 Games) – LLLLL
Brentford recent form (5 Games) – DWDWW
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Stevenage Wins = 2 Draws = 0 Brentford Wins = 2
Gateshead v KIDDERMINSTER
Gateshead home form – W4 D5 L4, Scored 16 & Conceded 13
Kidderminster away form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 21 & Conceded 11
Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Kidderminster)
Gateshead recent form (5 Games) – LLLWL
Kidderminster recent form (5 Games) – WWWWW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gateshead Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Kidderminster Wins = 1
WREXHAM v Ebbsfleet
Wrexham home form – W8 D2 L2, Scored 36 & Conceded 19
Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L10, Scored 20 & Conceded 35
Home / Away GD Swing – 32 (Favours Wrexham)
Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD
Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – WDWLL
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Wrexham Wins = 3 Draws = 2 Ebbsfleet Wins = 0
Betting Summary
29 / 12 / 2012
STOKE v Southampton
After a good run of form, Stoke have gradually climbed the table and have moved up to eighth in the Premier League. Aware that they face tough matches against Manchester City, Chelsea, and Swansea after the visit of Southampton, a win on Saturday will be crucial to maintain their decent position in the league. The fact that Southampton have one of the poorer defenses in the League this season will boost Stoke’s chances, and while Stoke are by no means prolific in front of goal, Tony Pulis’ players should be confident they can break open the visitors’ back four on Saturday. The man to do this for me is John Walters. This guy has found some form of late, having most recently scored a double in Stoke’s 3-1 win over Liverpool – the second of which would have been overly admired had it come from the boot of a more stylish, marketable player. If Walters can again combine with Kenwyne Jones effectively, Southampton will struggle.
The home side are unbeaten in nine Premier League matches and 16 consecutive games at the Britannia Stadium. This impressive record stems from their defensive qualities – The Potters have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League (14) and still hold the record for the highest amount of clean sheets in the division (9). Their opponents meanwhile have won just once away from home this season. Six defeats and one draw in their other seven attempts mean the Saints have taken only four points from a possible 32 on their travels. It can take something special to unlock Stoke, and whilst Southampton have the talents of Gaston Ramirez, Adam Lallana will again be a big miss.
Admittedly The Saints’ performances have improved recently, but an in-form Stoke side, who are notoriously hard to beat, offer a great bet in my eyes.
CARDIFF v Millwall
This game has caused me some headaches in decided to go with it. I was tempted to back P’Boro after their run of victories against struggling Bristol..but I truly believe that P’Boro will get relegated as they are a poor, poor side, and so I just can’t trust them. Milwall have had a decent season so far, and a side not to be underestimated. Recently though, they have hit a bit of an inconsistent patch. They have just one win in their last five games, scoring 4 and conceding 7 in this run.
Cardiff, despite an appalling, piss-taking defeat at the hand of P’Boro, have been superior in their consistency this season. A record of W7 D1 L2 in their last 10 league games speaks for itself and it is no surprise they sit at the top of the table. In all honesty, given the squad that they have assembled, this is widely expected, but what is good to see is that the players seem to be thriving on the competition for places and expectation that they exit this league via to top end.
After scoring 9 goals, and conceding 4 in their last 5 games, I can see Cardiff bagging more than one goal in this match. They should be confident after beating a decent Crystal Palace side last time out, and against a Millwall side that they have not lost to in the last 6 meetings (3 season period), they should come out triumphant in this one.
SHEFF UTD v Hartlepool
This is an easy selection really. Sheffield United have been remarkably consistent this season, losing just twice. Yet both those losses came away from home, and this weekend they play host, and hope to maintain their unbeaten home record of 6 wins and 6 draws. Their home GD reads at +11 due to scoring 21 and conceding 10 goals. The usual 5 game recent form period can be applied here, with Sheff Utd recording LWDWW and Hartlepool having LDLLL, yet even the 5 games before this period offers similar reading. It’s a simple case of a good team against a poor team, and inform team against struggling side, big versus small, top versus bottom, goal hungry versus goal shy, confident versus self-doubting. Home victory.
CHELTENHAM v Bristol Rovers
The home side have the opportunity to move into joint top spot if they manage to achieve a win against Bristol Rovers this weekend in what is a local derby. The top end of the League 2 table is tight, so Cheltenham will be looking to bag the 3 points here in what is a game they really should expect to win. They have the opportunity to really take it to Bristol and should aim to score at least 2 realistically. Having scored 21 goals at home, this should be more than just a possibility what with their opponents having conceded 26 away from home already. Cheltenham have been in fairly decent form recently with wins against Barnet, Northampton and Wycombe, the latter provided relief that they had not began to falter after being thrashed by Rochdale pre-xmas.
As the home side, Cheltenham have been solid, W8 D2 L2, being unbeaten in their last 9 home games, achieving 6 clean sheet in this run. They have a variety of goalscorers in the squad, and in Billy Jones they have a player who has been creating chances and gaining assists with ease. It is primarily the Home/Away records that make me so confident in this game. As strong as Cheltenham are at home, Bristol are as weak away from home, displaying a record of W1 D4 L7, with a -13 GD. Ouch! They have conceded in each of the last 15 away games they have played. Against Cheltenham this seem like asking to be punished, and I duly expect them to be.
Summary
Backing these 4 home sides will only get you odds of around 8/1.
To make it more interesting you could have Cheltenham & Sheff Utd at -1, which boosts the odds to around 18/1.
A draw no bet for the 4 fold produces odds of around 2.5/1 so not great…but a safer option none the less.
Alternative 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee)
Arsenal
Middlesbrough
Tranmere
Rotherham
Value 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee / Draw No Bet – Yankee)
West Ham
Birmingham City
Doncaster Rovers
Wycombe Wanderers
15 / 12 / 2012
LIVERPOOL v Aston Villa (Medium Confidence)
It has been a rare week for Liverpool in the sense that they have not had to deal with any any European, domestic cup or international action during midweek. This has allowed the Liverpool squad to have a whole week to focus on the preparation for their next league fixture against a young Aston Villa side. This frequency of this scenario of having a decent period of preparation can be compared to the regularity of Liverpool winning consecutive league games. Yet in a topsy-turvy league, after last Sunday’s entertaining 3-2 triumph over West Ham United, this is the situation that Liverpool find themselves in. If we include their win over Udinese in the Europa League, then Brendan Rodgers’ side have won 3 times in just 9 days, which could provide the shot of confidence and optimism which the club needs to boost their season and convince those on the fence that Roger’s philosophy is worth buying into.
The unpredictability of the league has meant that the Home side are now just four points behind fourth placed city rivals Everton, despite them sitting in an unimpressive 10th position. Villa are finding the season relatively difficult, currently finding themselves languishing in 16th with only 15 points from their 16 games played.
Despite it appearing that all indications point to a home win, as ever with Liverpool over recent years there should not be too much blind optimism. I feel that the outcome of this match will depend partly on how the Away side decide to approach the game. After beating Norwich in order to progress to the semi-final of the COC, the Villa players are likely to be in a buoyant mood. I feel that this will work favorably for Liverpool as their opponents may opt for a more expansive, confident style. I’m anticipating that this will create additional space for in the final third which could be crucial as I feel Liverpool struggle to break down resilient, stubborn opposition, even when playing at Anfield. The return of Luis Suarez, and the movement and tenacity that he provides, will cause Villa trouble, and coupled with the rest of the team being confident, this leads me to anticipate a home win.
When Villa make the trip to Anfield there are usually goals – the last 6 encounters producing 2, 3, 4, 5, 4 & 4 goals (average of 3.7 goals per game) – so it seems likely that the match will be exciting enough to find itself in at least the middle of MOTD’s running order. Again, the return of Suarez will also aid in a goals bet as he faces an inexperienced backline.
LIVERPOOL WIN, OVER 2.5 GOALS, SUAREZ SCORES
CARDIFF v Peterborough (High Confidence)
Looking at the results from the last few rounds of fixtures from the Championship, following the form teams will have proved fruitful, which is why I am following this route this weekend, where some value may be found. England’s second division is littered with sides who play good football, which allows goal bets to a decent avenue for profit. Last weekend only around a quarter of sides kept a clean sheet, and just 2 of the 24 the weekend before. The match that I will be focusing on will be that of Cardiff v Peterborough.
Table topping Cardiff face struggling Peterborough, and as the available odds suggest Cardiff are massive favourites for the win here. Its not difficult to see why that is the case as they have been churning out home victories this season, whereas Peterborough have gained just 7 points away from home. Recent form suggest Cardiff should breeze through this one, after winning 5 of their last 6 games, whilst Peterborough have lost 7 of their last 8.
Cardiff have been more than impressive at home this season, boasting a 100% record due to achieving 10 wins out of 10 games and with 21 goals scored at home ( as well as 21 goals scored away) only Derby and Leicester have scored more home goals. Whilst some sides attacking capabilities means that they can suffer defensively, this has not been the case with Cardiff. They have also been solid defensively in only conceding 5 goals and keeping 5 clean sheets, so it will be no surprise should Peterborough find it hard, or impossible, to breakdown that stubborn defence.
It’s getting to the stage of the season now when sides are round about where they deserve to be. Enough games have commenced for poor starts to be rectified, but Peterborough are bottom of the league for a reason, they’re rubbish. Neither their home nor away form is any good having only won 4 games all season, and with 16 losses and 1 draw there seems to be only 1 realistic result coming from this game. If anything, we should surely be looking at how many Cardiff will score. They should really be just too good for their opponents and outplay them, which is why I think they will easily cover a -1 handicap, and for those brave/confident enough, perhaps a -2.
CARDIFF WIN, CARDIFF -1, OVER 2.5 GOALS
BOURNEMOUTH v Colchester (Medium Confidence)
Bournemouth have been gradually moving upwards in the league standings since Eddie Howe returned to the club, and are currently on a 12 game unbeaten run in all competitions. Of these 12 games, 9 have been wins, they have scored 31 goals, and conceded 13. This season at home in the league they have won 4 and drawn 5 of their games, losing just once, and another stat which influences my prediction is that Bournemouth have scored in their last 16 home matches. Colchester have conceded 19 goals in their 10 away games this season, which increases my belief that Bournemouth will find the net at least once, if not twice in this match.
Colchester are 8places below Bournemouth with one of the worst away records in the league with W2 D2 L6 and a -10goal difference. Taking just 4 points from a possible 24 is a good indication of their struggles away from home. After losing the last 3 in a row, including losing 2-0 to Oldham at home last week and 5-1 away to MK Dons the week before, Colchester will be short of confidence. It is worth noting that Bournemouth drew with MK earlier in the season when they were going through a poor period, and put 4 past Oldham.
Although I will be including Bournemouth in my accumulator selection, I really think that any value in this bet can be found in the goals markets. In regards to Bournemouth, it is interesting that in 9 of their last 10 games at home, both teams have scored. With Colchester, a positive that they can draw upon is that in their last 6 away games, they have scored in each one, totaling 9 goals. In 3 of their previous 4 away games, they have actually managed to score 2 goals. I think worthwhile bets here will be BTTS and O2.5 Goals.
BOURNEMOUTH WIN, BTTS, O2.5 GOALS, GRABBAN ANYTIME
Summary
Liverpool, Cardiff, Bournemouth in Doubles & Treble with BetVictor.
Liverpool v Aston Villa O2.5 Goals, Cardiff v Peterborough O2.5 Goals, Bournemouth v Colchester O2.5 Goals in Doubles & Treble with Ladbrokes
Luis Suarez Anytime Goalscorer with Boylesports
Cardiff -1 with Bet365
Lewis Grabban Anytime Goalscorer with Coral
The Soccer Surgeon 