06 / 08 / 2013 Capital One Cup: Round 1

 

Bristol Rovers v WATFORD

If as expected Bristol Rovers face Championship side Watford in the first round of the Capital One Cup without nine first-team players because of injury, their bench will be a mirror image of that from last Saturday’s defeat against Exeter in League Two where it was entirely made up of U20’s players.

Momentum is on the side of Watford having enjoyed a great pre-season made up of 4 (W3, D1) games, whilst Bristol Rovers had an average warm up prior to the season made up of 3 games (W1, D1, L1). The extra game that Watford have under their belts, coupled with the boost of being in winning form, should see them enter this tie against a depleted, perhaps tired / leggy side full of confidence.

History shows that Bristol Rovers have not kept a clean sheet in 16 League Cup ties over 12 years, whilst The Hornets have scored in 14 successive games at Bristol Rovers in all competitions. The likelihood of Watford scoring once is high, and i feel comfortable in backing them with a handicap.

MIDDLESBROUGH v Accrington

Middlesbrough have won 10 and lost just two of their last 14 home matches in this competition, whilst their opponents

• Accrington have lost six of their last eight matches in the League Cup, winning just two.
• Middlesbrough had a decent pre season, picking up wins against Morecombe, Rotherham and Bordeaux. Defeating Morecombe, who are in the same league as Accrington, by two goals to nil gives some indication of the class difference of the sides, although a pre season game can not be relied on for an accurate analysis base.

Despite losing their first league game of the season against Leicester, ‘Boro will still fancy themselves in this one, and with offers reportedly being made for Adomah of Bristol City and McCormack of Leeds, the ‘Boro attackers will want to impress tonight.

NOTTM FOREST v Hartlepool

Former Forest old boy Colin Cooper takes his Hartlepool side to Nottingham tonight looking to bounce back from a heavy 3-0 defeat on the opening day of the season to Rochdale. After reading his comments on the BBC website, he doesn’t sound too optimistic about the next few weeks saying it will take some time for his side to improve. They face a Forest side who picked up 3 points against Huddersfield at the weekend and will seek to build on that victory with a cup win to generate some momentum. Forest had an expansive pre season consisting of 6 games, of which they won 2 and drew 4. I feel confident that whichever side they field tonight, the players will be ready for a full 90 minutes courtesy of preseason rotation. Hartlepool played 4 preseason games losing 2. Home advantage should see Forest proceed to Round 2 tonight.

Exeter v QPR

I doubt Exeter really expect to progress in this competition as League Two survival is likely to be their focus this season. Their opponents QPR probably fancy a cup run as they have maintained a strong looking squad, with some decent additions that have provided them with enough depth to be able to alter their line up and sustain a strong starting 11.  Team news regarding QPR indicates that Charlie Austin may make his full debut, whilst Wright-Phillips and Jenas could start.

I fully expect QPR to be too strong in this tie.

26 / 02 / 2013

After landing an 8-game accumulator at the weekend, i’m taking a chance with these midweek fixtures by backing 9 games on the 4-fold & 5-fold, with a small stake on the accumulator.

League One

Colchester v YEOVIL

Colchester home form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 25

Yeovil away form – W8 D2 L6, Scored 26 & Conceded 24

Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Yeovil)

Colchester recent form (5 Games) – WLWLL

Yeovil recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Yeovil Wins = 4   Draws = 2   Colchester Wins = 0

* I think both teams could score here, but Yeovil should edge it, as the H2H record suggests. 2-1 would be no surprise.

Portsmouth v MK DONS

Portsmouth home form – W3 D3 L11, Scored 18 & Conceded 26

MK Dons away form – W4 D6 L6, Scored 19 & Conceded 19

Home / Away GD Swing – 8 (Favours MK Dons)

Portsmouth recent form (5 Games) – LLDDL

MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LLLDD

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Portsmouth Wins = 0   Draws = 1   MK Dons Wins = 0

* Despite MK Dons being in poor form themselves, I feel they have been underperforming. Against a Pompey side in freefall they should gain a win.

SHEFF UTD v Leyton Orient

Sheff Utd home form –  W7 D6 L3, Scored 27 & Conceded 17

Leyton Orient away form – W6 D2 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 23

Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Sheff Utd)

Sheff Utd recent form (5 Games) – LWWWW

Leyton Orient recent form (5 Games) – DWWLL

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Sheff Utd Wins = 2   Draws = 1   Leyton Orient Wins = 0

* Sheff Utd have put together a strong run of form over the last few weeks to reignite their promotion hopes. They edged out the last encounter 0-1 away from home and I see them winning this encounter on home soil too.

SWINDON v Bury

Swindon home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 10

Bury away form – W2 D7 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 35 (Favours Swindon)

Swindon recent form (5 Games) – DWDWD

Bury recent form (5 Games) – WDLLL

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Swindon Wins = 1   Draws = 0   Bury Wins = 0

* Despite not having Di Canio at the helm, Swindon maintained their 13 game unbeaten run last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Preston. I think against a poor Bury side who have lost 3 on the bounce they will pick up the win, perhaps with a clean sheet.

League Two

GILLINGHAM v Oxford

Gillingham home form – W8 D4 L5, Scored 30 & Conceded 17

Oxford away form –  W6 D2 L9, Scored 21 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 21 (Favours Gillingham)

Gillingham recent form (5 Games) – LWDWW

Oxford recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 2   Draws = 3   Oxford Wins = 0

* Gillingham have lost just 2 in 10, and go into this on the back of 2 wins, whilst Oxford have recently turned around a poor run with a Win and a Draw. Oxford have struggled against Gillingham over recent seasons and I expect the same in this game. Over 2.5 Goals would be my side bet in this game.

NORTHAMPTON v Bristol Rovers

Northampton home form – W12 D2 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 14

Bristol Rovers away form –  W4 D6 L7, Scored 20 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Northampton)

Northampton recent form (5 Games) – LWWDW

Bristol Rovers recent form (5 Games) – DWWLD

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 1   Draws = 0   Oxford Wins = 2

* Northampton’s home record is sublime, whilst their opponents away record is below par. Despite Bristol winning in terms of H2H, the strength of Northampton at home sways this for me.

BURTON v Morecambe

Burton home form – W12 D3 L2, Scored 37 & Conceded 17

Morecambe away form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 22 & Conceded 22

Home / Away GD Swing – 20 (Favours Burton)

Burton recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW

Morecambe recent form (5 Games) – WDWWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Burton Wins = 2   Draws = 2   Morecambe Wins = 1

* This will be a close game for me, which leads me to think Draw No Bet or Burton +0 on the Asian Handicap will be a better option. Morecambe have been in decent form, yet I believe home advantage and the GD record has the ability to provide the decisive factor in this game.

Conference Premier

GRIMSBY v Ebbsfleet

Grimsby home form – W11 D3 L3, Scored 33 & Conceded 12

Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L8, Scored 17 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Grimsby)

Grimsby recent form (5 Games) – WDWWL

Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – LLWDW

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Grimsby Wins = 1   Draws = 1   Ebbsfleet Wins = 1

* Promotion chasing Grimsby host relegation battling Ebbsfleet here. A solid home side faces up against a struggling away team, and despite Ebbsfleet improving of late, I see Grimsby being relatively easy winners here. If they were to cover the -1 handicap I would not be surprised.

Barrow v WREXHAM

Barrow home form – W3 D5 L7, Scored 15 & Conceded 25

Wrexham away form – W9 D5 L3, Scored 25 & Conceded 13

Home / Away GD Swing – 22 (Favours Wrexham)

Barrow recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD

Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Barrow Wins = 1   Draws = 1   Wrexham Wins = 3

* Table toppers Wrexham visit relegation threatened Barrow in what should be a relatively straight forward victory. They have a solid away form to build on, and have not faced much trouble against Barrow over recent seasons.

Betting Summary

Extra

FA Cup

EVERTON v Oldham

Might not be placing a bet on this game but have taken an interest in it nonetheless. Having played Saturday – Tuesday – Saturday – Tuesday, I feel that weary legs could prove to be Oldham’s undoing in this game. Everton boss David Moyes will be looking, and expecting, and immediate reaction from his side after the weekend’s late loss to Norwich. Oldham have been poor away from home this year, with a record of W5 D3 L9, scoring 18 and conceding 27, whereas Everton are solid enough at home with a record of W8 D3 L3, scoring 22 and conceding 16, to comfortable, in theory, win this. There is little value in backing Everton outright, so I’m envisaging that the -1 handicap should be covered should you fancy a punt.

Odds – 1.53

29 / 12 / 2012

 

STOKE v Southampton

After a good run of form, Stoke have gradually climbed the table and have moved up to eighth in the Premier League. Aware that they face tough matches against Manchester City, Chelsea,  and Swansea after the visit of Southampton, a win on Saturday will be crucial to maintain their decent position in the league. The fact that Southampton have one of the poorer defenses in the League this season will boost Stoke’s chances, and while Stoke are by no means prolific in front of goal, Tony Pulis’ players should be confident they can break open the visitors’ back four on Saturday. The man to do this for me is John Walters. This guy has found some form of late, having most recently scored a double in Stoke’s 3-1 win over Liverpool – the second of which would have been overly admired had it come from the boot of a more stylish, marketable player. If Walters can again combine with Kenwyne Jones effectively, Southampton will struggle.

The home side are unbeaten in nine Premier League matches and 16 consecutive games at the Britannia Stadium. This impressive record stems from their defensive qualities – The Potters have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League (14) and still hold the record for the highest amount of clean sheets in the division (9). Their opponents meanwhile have won just once away from home this season. Six defeats and one draw in their other seven attempts mean the Saints have taken only four points from a possible 32 on their travels. It can take something special to unlock Stoke, and whilst Southampton have the talents of Gaston Ramirez, Adam Lallana will again be a big miss.

Admittedly The Saints’ performances have improved recently, but an in-form Stoke side, who are notoriously hard to beat, offer a great bet in my eyes.

CARDIFF v Millwall

This game has caused me some headaches in decided to go with it. I was tempted to back P’Boro after their run of victories against struggling Bristol..but I truly believe that P’Boro will get relegated as they are a poor, poor side, and so I just can’t trust them. Milwall have had a decent season so far, and a side not to be underestimated. Recently though, they have hit a bit of an inconsistent patch. They have just one win in their last five games, scoring 4 and conceding 7 in this run.

Cardiff, despite an appalling, piss-taking defeat at the hand of P’Boro, have been superior in their consistency this season. A record of W7 D1 L2 in their last 10 league games speaks for itself and it is no surprise they sit at the top of the table. In all honesty, given the squad that they have assembled, this is widely expected, but what is good to see is that the players seem to be thriving on the competition for places and expectation that they exit this league via to top end.

After scoring 9 goals, and conceding 4 in their last 5 games, I can see Cardiff bagging more than one goal in this match. They should be confident after beating a decent Crystal Palace side last time out, and against a Millwall side that they have not lost to in the last 6 meetings (3 season period), they should come out triumphant in this one.

SHEFF UTD v Hartlepool

This is an easy selection really. Sheffield United have been remarkably consistent this season, losing just twice. Yet both those losses came away from home, and this weekend they play host, and hope to maintain their unbeaten home record of 6 wins and 6 draws. Their home GD reads at +11 due to scoring 21 and conceding 10 goals. The usual 5 game recent form period can be applied here, with Sheff Utd recording LWDWW and Hartlepool having LDLLL, yet even the 5 games before this period offers similar reading. It’s a simple case of a good team against a poor team, and inform team against struggling side, big versus small, top versus bottom, goal hungry versus goal shy, confident versus self-doubting. Home victory.

CHELTENHAM v Bristol Rovers

The home side have the opportunity to move into joint top spot if they manage to achieve a win against Bristol Rovers this weekend in what is a local derby. The top end of the League 2 table is tight, so Cheltenham will be looking to bag the 3 points here in what is a game they really should expect to win. They have the opportunity to really take it to Bristol and should aim to score at least 2 realistically. Having scored 21 goals at home, this should be more than just a possibility what with their opponents having conceded 26 away from home already. Cheltenham have been in fairly decent form recently with wins against Barnet, Northampton and Wycombe, the latter provided relief that they had not began to falter after being thrashed by Rochdale pre-xmas.

As the home side, Cheltenham have been solid, W8 D2 L2, being unbeaten in their last 9 home games, achieving 6 clean sheet in this run. They have a variety of goalscorers in the squad, and in Billy Jones they have a player who has been creating chances and gaining assists with ease. It is primarily the Home/Away records that make me so confident in this game. As strong as Cheltenham are at home, Bristol are as weak away from home, displaying a record of W1 D4 L7, with a -13 GD. Ouch! They have conceded in each of the last 15 away games they have played. Against Cheltenham this seem like asking to be punished, and I duly expect them to be.

Summary

Backing these 4 home sides will only get you odds of around 8/1.

To make it more interesting you could have Cheltenham & Sheff Utd at -1, which boosts the odds to around 18/1.

A draw no bet for the 4 fold produces odds of around 2.5/1 so not great…but a safer option none the less.

Alternative 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee)

Arsenal

Middlesbrough

Tranmere

Rotherham

Value 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee / Draw No Bet – Yankee)

West Ham

Birmingham City

Doncaster Rovers

Wycombe Wanderers