26 / 08 / 2013 – Bank Holiday Monday – Man Utd v Chelsea

Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort.

Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!

Route 1:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on Chelsea Double Chance – ‘Draw/Chelsea’ currently @1.57, returning £78.50

Then place £50 on  Manchester United in play during the game currently @ 2.40 this returns £120

This means that if the game ends as a draw or Chelsea win, you will make £28.50 profit.

However if United win, you will make £20 profit.

Route 2:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of United/Chelsea @ 1.33, this returns £66.50

Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @3.40, returning £170

This means if United or Chelsea win, you will make £16.50 profit.

However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £70 profit.

Route 3:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on United Double Chance – United/Draw’ currently @1.38, returning £69

Then place £50 on Chelsea in play during the game currently @ 3.20 this returns £160

This means that if the game ends as a draw or United win, you will make £19 profit.

However if Chelsea win, you will make £60 profit.

Season Long Bets

It is just a few days before the Premier League kicks off for what promises to be one of the most competitive seasons for years. With Man United, Man City & Chelsea all having new managers it remains to be seen who will triumph come the end of May. Not only have those at the top of the league invested, the rest of the league have too with Norwich looking like they have had a good transfer window, whilst Sunderland have had an overhaul of last seasons failing squad. Here i have selected a few bets which will run for the whole season.

League Winners:

Premier League – Chelsea @ 3.25 (EW)

Championship – Reading @ 9 (EW)

League One – Wolves @ 4.5 (EW)

League Two – Chesterfield @ 8.5 (EW)

4-fold with SkyBet

Premier League Top Goalscorer:

I tried to avoid RVP here as there is little value with him, whilst Bale is too risky with the strong Madrid interest. As for Suarez, his current fallout with Liverpool means that even when he has served the rest of his ban he may not be a starting 11 player, nor fully match fit thus giving him potentially a 10 game handicap.

Romelu Lukaku @ 26 (EW) – Bet365

Edin Dzeko @ 34 (EW) – Bet365

Premier League Relegation:

Fulham @ 8 – BetVictor

Top 8 Finish:

Swansea @ 3.5 – Stan James

2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction

For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.

As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really.  The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.

Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners

In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.

For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.

As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.

League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.

And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.

 

09 / 02 / 2013

This week I have selected a 5-fold, which I will place in doubles, trebles, a 4-fold and of course the  full 5-fold selection. I’m sticking with incremental betting to offer a higher chance of return.

CHELSEA v Wigan

Despite Chelsea’s poor run of form of late, I don’t expect this to be a prolonged period of bad results for the Blues. They haven’t won in 4 games, all of which were away from home, so upon returning to more familiar turf at Stamford Bridge I anticipate that they will build on their decent home form which currently reads at W6 D4 L2, scoring 26 and conceding just 11. They are facing a Wigan side who once again find themselves firmly in a relegation battle, something which wasn’t unexpected at the start of the seasons given that they lost a few of their better players in Rodellega and Diame, both on free transfers. Away from home Wigan have W3 D2 L7, scoring 12 and conceding 20.

Recent form between the sides suggests that Chelsea should be more than confident going into the match. Over the last 3 years, 6 fixtures have taken place between the two sides. Of these 6 games, Chelsea have won 5 and drew 1, scoring 20 and conceding 2.

Wigan’s preferred formation of 3-5-2 does seem to suit their squad, despite their struggles it would appear that a switch to a more common 4-4-2 would actually be detrimental. However, against Chelsea, I worry that their wing backs who are required to both attack & defend, may find themselves pinned back by Chelsea’s wide players. No doubt this will lead to there being an abundance of men in the Wigan 3^rd, but with players like Mata & Oscar buzzing around there is a high chance they will be able to unlock the Wigan defence.

BOURNEMOUTH v Portsmouth

This is a no brainer for me, but as with any football game nothing is ever 100%, yet looking at the statistics this is a banker. After going on an 18 game unbeaten run, Bournemouth suffered a blip and lost 2 on the bounce. Impressively, they have since recovered and find themselves on a 3 game winning run, most recently beating MK Dons 3 goals to nil.

Recent form for Portsmouth it not so rosy, with the away side having achieved 3 draws during the period of 24/11 – 15/12 wedged inbetween 7 defeats both sides of that period. 3 points from 54 (17 games) is appalling, and a good representation of the squad strength, or lack of, that currently troubles Pompey.

At home this season Bournemouth have a record of W8 D6 L1, scored 29 and conceded 13. Away from home Pompey have a record of W2 D4 L7, scored 15 conceded 27. These statistics provide us with a  Home/Away GD swing of 28.

Early in the season Portsmouth managed a 1-1 draw at home to their opponents, and then beat them 3-2 AET in the JPT. However, since then there has been a turnover of players at the club and they are a considerably weaker outfit currently, which leads me to disregard those results somewhat.

NORTHAMPTON v Rochdale

Northampton’s inconsistency away from home has bit me a few times this season, but one thing for certain is that they rarely lose at home. Their home record currently stands at W10 D2 L3, scoring 30 and conceding just 13. They come into the game on the back of two defeats, yet both of these came away from home against high flyers Gillingham & Rotherham. This weekend they return to their Sixfields Stadium to face a Rochdale side who are winless in 5. They have an away record of W6 D3 L6, scoring 28 and conceding 31. Clearly they are inconsistent away from home, and their defence is particular suspect having the worst away goals conceded record in the league. 28 away goals indicates that they don’t struggle to find the net on their travels, yet top scorer (13) Bobby Grant will miss the game after getting sent off in their previous game against mid-table Chesterfield, after netting the equalizer.

Earlier in the season the sides managed a 0-0 draw, offering little indication of how this game will go, so I’m going to follow the home/away form guide here.

SWINDON v Hartlepool

I waited until after Swindon had played their midweek game away at Colchester to see how they performed before settling on this game for a selection. After all of the talk of Swindon only being able to select a 13man squad, they eventually managed to named 15 players. A battling performance brought them a 0-1 victory in this game, and the time between that fixture and the one against Hartlepool will give them time to hopefully restore some injured players to fitness and name a stronger squad.

Being at home should help Swindon’s preparation for this game, knowing that they have a strong record at their home ground which currently reads W8 D4 L3, scored 32 & conceded 8. Amazingly Swindon have both the most prolific home goals scored record and the league’s most solid home defence according to the goals stats. Hartlepool will do well to get a win in this game, especially as their away record reads as W2 D4 L9, scored 14 conceded 28. In total there is a home/away GD swing of 38, a stat which really points in Swindon’s favour.

The head to heads between two sides over the last 3 years, including the fixture earlier this season, reads equal with 3 draws and a win each. It is the home/away form and goals stats which lead me to back Swindon here.

GRIMSBY v Telford

Grimsby seem to be heading straight for promotion to the football league this season after picking up 55/87 available points this season so far. The chasing pack are consistent however, which means Grimsby can’t afford to take their foot off the gas, even against sides such as Telford who are struggling. Grimsby currently find themselves on a 16 game unbeaten run in all competitions, a run which includes 11 victories, whilst also going into the game on the back of two victories in which they scored a total of 7 goals. Telford on the other hand are on a 13 game winless run, including 8 defeats, and have scored just 1 goal in their last 4 games.

At home, Grimsby are currently W10 D3 L3, having scored 32 and conceded just 12. Their opponents, Telford, are poor away from home, with a record of W3 D7 L5, scored 21 and conceded 22. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 21.

Recent form between the sides also indicates a home win here, with Grimsby having won 2 and gained a draw in the only 3 fixtures between the sides, all of which took place in 2012. Just over 1 year ago, on the 28^th January 2012 when Grimsby were the home side against Telford, they ran out 2-0 winners.

Bet Summary

Some other selections of interest, which i’ll decide whether to place or not closer to kick off include:

Have a good weekend all!!!

05 / 01 / 2013