01 / 02 / 2014

Hull v TOTTENHAM

A home record of W5 D3 L3 whilst scoring 15 and conceding 8 indicates that Steve Bruce’s Hull side are comfortable on their own turf. They host Tim Sherwood’s Spurs who have an away record of W8 D1 L2, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Despite these stats give us a home/away GD swing of 4 favouring Hull, i fancy Spurs to bounce back from their heavy defeat to Man City in midweek and take the 3 points this weekend. Jake Livermore will be a big miss for Hull after Spurs recalled him from his loan spell, although he wouldn’t have been able to face his parent club anyway had he been allowed to remain with the Hull squad for the remainder of the season.

Bournemouth v LEICESTER

After their midweek win over Huddersfield, Bournemouth will welcome Leicester and feel confident of giving themselves a shot at getting something from the game. They have an average home record of W6 D3 L5, scoring 19 and conceding 17. Table toppers Leicester have an away record of W9 D1 L4, scoring 22 and conceding 15. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 5 favouring the away side. The Foxes have won their last 4 away games in the Championship, whereas Bournemouth have won just 2 of their last 8 at home.

Shrewsbury v BRENTFORD

Recent form is the catalyst for this choice. Shrewsbury sit in 22^nd position after losing their last 4 matches and have a home record of W4 D4 L7, with 6 of these defeats coming in their last 6 home games, whilst they have scored 12 and conceding 15. Brentford sit in 1^st place in League One after winning 8 of their last 9, and have an away record of W7 D4 L2, scoring 20 and conceding 14. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 9 favouring Brentford.

WOLVES v Bradford

Wolves have a strong home record of W10 D3 L2, scoring 26 and conceding 9. They welcome a Bradford side to Molineux who have a below average away record of W3 D6 L4, scoring 16 and conceding 19. These statistics provide us with a home/away GD swing of 20 favouring Wolves. With Bradford winning just once in their last 8 away games, i struggle to see how they will be able to keep Wolves at bay considering the strength they possess at home.

Hartlepool v SCUNTHORPE

With Hartlepool losing 4 of their last 5 games, there was always a chance they would be worth backing against this weekend. The fact that they face 2^nd place Scunthorpe means that their struggles are expected to continue this weekend. Hartlepool have a home record of W6 D2 L6, scoring 15 and conceding 17. These figures all indicate their inconsistency to me. Scunthorpe have an away record of W6 D7 L2, scoring 25 and conceding 18. No doubt they would have liked to convert a few of those draws into wins but it is still a solid record. The stats given provide us with a home/away GD swing of 9 favouring Scunthorpe.

ALFRETON v Hyde

Alfreton sit in 3^rd place in the Conference and have a good home record to build on, as it currently stands at W11 D1 L2, scoring 29 and conceding 18.  They welcome bottom side Hyde to the Impact Arena, who have an away record of W1 D2 L11, scoring 14 and conceding 45. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 42 favouring Alfreton. It is worth noting that things have picked up for Hyde in their last 2 away games as they picked up a draw and a win, although their lack of quality remains and with Alfreton winning their last 3 home games on the bounce they should pick up another win.

6 Fold pays @ 43/1

28 / 01 / 2014

25 / 01 / 2014

WOLVES v Bristol City

A confidence boosting win over a strong Preston side in their last league fixture will give Wolves much to build on heading into this clash with 23^rd placed Bristol City. The Midlands outfit have a home record of W9 D3 L2, scoring 24 and conceding 8. Bristol have definitely improved their performances and results recently, but with an away record of W1 D6 L4 scoring 19 and conceding 20, you have to favour the home side. The stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 17 favouring Wolves.

Northampton v CHESTERFIELD

After going 2 league games without a win dented Chesterfield’s promotion push, they will hope to get back to winning ways when they visit bottom side Northampton, who have lost two games on the bounce now. They have a distinctly average home record of W3 D4 L4, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Chesterfield have an away record of W5 D3 L3, scoring 17 and conceding 13. These stats give a home/away GD swing of 7 favouring Chesterfield. What makes me confident in backing Chesterfield to reignite their promotion campaign is that despite their last 2 results yielding just 1 point, their defeat came away at Southend who find themselves in 5^th place, and the draw came at home to a strong Rochdale side who sit in 2^nd, so the result are nothing to be ashamed or worried about.

LEICESTER v Middlesbrough

Despite Middlesbrough’s recent upturn in fortunes away from home after recording 2 wins and 2 draws, i still fancy Leicester to come out with the win in this tie. The Foxes have a home record of W10 D2 L1, scoring 27 and conceding 13. Boro’s away form reads as W3 D4 L6, scoring 18 and conceding 21. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 17 favouring Leicester. You cant ignore Boro’s recent away results, but the wins came against Millwall (20^th) & Blackpool (14^th), with the draws coming against Bolton (18^th) & Birmingham (17^th). With Leicester on a 3 game winning run at home courtesy of victories over Reading (6^th), Bolton (18^th) & Derby (4^th), we can see that they have done the business against teams of a higher quality.

SUNDERLAND v Kidderminster

After the heroics that Gus Poyet’s men performed midweek in defeating Manchester United on penalties in the League Cup Semi Final, the Black Cats are likely to be buzzing with confidence and enthusiasm as they try to transfer their performance into the FA Cup. They face Conference side Kidderminster who currently sit in 6^th place after a mixed run of form. Sunderland have a home record of W2 D2 L7 in the league, although if we look at cup competitions (League Cup & FA Cup), all of their fixtures have been at home with 6 wins recorded. Kidderminster have an away record of W4 D2 L7, indicating the issues they have had on their travels albeit in the league. They progressed to this tie with Sunderland after defeating Peterborough in the previous round, although it is worth noting that League One Peterborough had been struggling for form. With a Premiership squad to select from, i expect quality to shine through in this cup tie, especially on home soil.

18 / 01 / 2014

ARSENAL v Fulham

Arsene Wengers Gunners side take on an ageing Fulham squad and look to improve on their home record that currently reads as W7 D2 L1, scoring 18 and conceding 6. They have managed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their home games in the league this season, and it would be no surprise should they make that 7 this weekend. Fulham have an away record of W3 D0 L7, scoring 8 and conceding 24. So we have a home side who have scored 3 times more than have conceded on their own turf, facing an away side who have conceding 3 times more than they have scored on their travels, who have also not beaten their opponents when playing away ever. This will undoubtedly be a struggle for Fulham.

MAN CITY v Cardiff

Man City’s record of played 10 won 10 at home is as clear a sign as any of their confidence at the Etihad. In addition to their results, their performances have seen them score 36 and concede just 6 at home in the league, whilst they have managed to transfer their results into both domestic cup competitions. Welsh side Cardiff have an away record W1 D3 L6, scoring 5 and conceding 17. With the strength of Man City’s squad, this should be a walk in the park for Pellegrini’s men.

MIDDLESBROUGH v Charlton

Were it not for Middlesbrough’s decent home form which reads as W5 D5 L2, scoring 22 and conceding 12, they would be sitting in a worrying league position. They face a Charlton side who have an away record of W2 D2 L5, scoring 11 and conceding 16.  These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 favouring Middlesbrough, and i think that they will improve their impressive home form with a win.

SCUNTHORPE v Wimbledon

On the whole Scunthorpe have been decent at home this season, with a record of W7 D2 L2 scoring 19 and conceding 9. The welcome a Wimbledon side who have a home record of W3 D3 L6, scoring 11 and conceding 16. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 favouring Scunthorpe. With Wimbledon struggling against some of the average sides in the league this season, a Scunthorpe side that possess some decent players at this level should be too much to handle. A home win for me.

LUTON v Wrexham

Table toppers Luton host 13^th place Wrexham this weekend. They have a home record of W10 D3 L0, scoring 34 and conceding 11. Wrexham have an away record of W3 D3 L8, scoring 23 and conceding 25. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 25 favouring Luton. Recent overall form gives Luton the advantage as they have been posting positive results for a long period, whereas Wrexham have been a bit unpredictable.

11 / 01 / 2014

EVERTON v Norwich

Roberto Martinez’s team welcome Norwich to Goodison looking to build on their home record which currently reads as W6 D3 L1, scoring 19 and conceding 9. They quickly bounced back from a surprising defeat against Sunderland with a hard fought win against a tricky and talented Southampton side, and followed that up with a 4-0 demolition of QPR in the FA Cup which should give them confidence. Norwich currently have an away record of W2 D2 L6, scoring 7 and conceding 22. In all fairness to Norwich they had an absolutely torrid fixture list to contend with, and suffered defeats against all of the stronger sides in the league, and unfortunately for them i would have to class Everton as one of these! The stats available give us a home/away GD swing of 25 favouring Everton.

BLACKBURN v Doncaster

Blackburn have a home record that reads as W6 D3 L3, scoring 17 and conceding 10. They earned a deserved draw against Man City in the FA Cup in their last fixture and they should take that performance into this tie against a struggling Doncaster side. The visiting side have an away record of W1 D4 L7, scoring 8 and conceding 23. These stats give us a home/away record of 22 favouring Blackburn, and against a side who consistently ship goals i feel that Jordan Rhodes could fire Blackburn to victory in this one.

BRENTFORD v Port Vale

Table toppers Brentford will look to continue their excellent run of form when they take on 8^th placed Port Vale this weekend. They have a home record of W9 D1 L2, scoring 23 and conceding 10. Their opponents have an indifferent away record that reads as W5 D0 L7, scoring 17 and conceding 21. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 17 favouring Brentford. Clearly Port Vale are quite unpredictable on their travels and when you take into account the solid form of Brentford when they are the home side, you have to anticipate a home win.

Mansfield v SCUNTHORPE (dnb)

16^th place Mansfield host top of the table Scunthorpe this weekend, and will look to improve on a home record W2 D4 L5, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Scunthorpe enter this game with an away record of W5 D6 L2, scoring 20 and conceding 15. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 7 favouring Scunthorpe. When playing against sides of similar quality to Scunthorpe this season Mansfield have invariably struggled, and so i feel that Scunthorpe should have enough quality too do the business. Even so, with the odds on offer ill take the Draw No Bet.

 

4-Fold pays @ 5.67

01 / 01 / 2014

Just the games here today as i havent had a chance to write up!

Stoke v EVERTON

West Brom v NEWCASTLE

LIVERPOOL v Hull

 

Millwall v LEICESTER

 

ALDERSHOT v Forest Green

ALFRETON v Wrexham

Hyde v MACCLESFIELD

 

7 Fold pays @ 150/1