12 / 03 / 2013
I’ve selected 3 fixtures from the English leagues for the midweek games, which i’ll be backing at doubles and trebles.
LEEDS v Peterborough
Leeds home form – W11 D2 L4, Scored 23 & Conceded 18
Peterborough away form – W6 D1 L10, Scored 25 & Conceded 27
Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Leeds)
Leeds recent form (5 Games) – WDWDD
Peterborough recent form (5 Games) – LLWDD
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Leeds Wins = 3 Draws = 0 Peterborough Wins = 0
MK DONS v Shrewsbury
MK Dons home form – W9 D4 L4, Scored 26 & Conceded 17
Shrewsbury away form – W3 D6 L9, Scored 18 & Conceded 26
Home / Away GD Swing – 17 (Favours MK Dons)
MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – DDDWD
Shrewsbury recent form (5 Games) – WWLLL
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – MK Dons Wins = 0 Draws = 1 Shrewsbury Wins = 0
Lincoln v WREXHAM
Lincoln home form – W7 D4 L8, Scored 28 & Conceded 31
Wrexham away form – W10 D5 L3, Scored 26 & Conceded 13
Home / Away GD Swing – 16 (Favours Wrexham)
Lincoln recent form (5 Games) – DLDLW
Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – WWDWL
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Lincoln Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Wrexham Wins = 2
05 / 03 / 2013
Just a short outline of the stats which lead me to back the indicated teams in this set of mid-week fixtures from the English divisions.
CARDIFF v Derby
Cardiff home form – W13 D1 L2, Scored 27 & Conceded 11
Derby away form – W3 D4 L10, Scored 16 & Conceded 30
Home / Away GD Swing – 30 (Favours Cardiff)
Cardiff recent form (5 Games) – DWLWL
Derby recent form (5 Games) – LDDLL
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Cardiff Wins = 4 Draws = 1 Derby Wins = 0
NOTTM FOREST v Ipswich
Nottm Forest home form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 28 & Conceded 21
Ipswich away form – W5 D4 L8, Scored 12 & Conceded 30
Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Nottm Forest)
Nottm Forest recent form (5 Games) – LDWWW
Ipswich recent form (5 Games) – LWLDW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Nottm Forest Wins = 4 Draws = 0 Ipswich Wins = 1
MK Dons v DONCASTER
MK Dons home form – W8 D4 L4, Scored 23 & Conceded 17
Doncaster away form –W11 D4 L2, Scored 28 & Conceded 13
Home / Away GD Swing – 9 (Favours Doncaster)
MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LDDDD
Doncaster recent form (5 Games) – DDDWW
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – MK Dons Wins = 0 Draws = 1 Doncaster Wins = 0
Stevenage v BRENTFORD
Stevenage home form – W4 D5 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 29
Brentford away form – W6 D7 L3, Scored 19 & Conceded 16
Home / Away GD Swing – 12 (Favours Brentford)
Stevenage recent form (5 Games) – LLLLL
Brentford recent form (5 Games) – DWDWW
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Stevenage Wins = 2 Draws = 0 Brentford Wins = 2
Gateshead v KIDDERMINSTER
Gateshead home form – W4 D5 L4, Scored 16 & Conceded 13
Kidderminster away form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 21 & Conceded 11
Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Kidderminster)
Gateshead recent form (5 Games) – LLLWL
Kidderminster recent form (5 Games) – WWWWW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gateshead Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Kidderminster Wins = 1
WREXHAM v Ebbsfleet
Wrexham home form – W8 D2 L2, Scored 36 & Conceded 19
Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L10, Scored 20 & Conceded 35
Home / Away GD Swing – 32 (Favours Wrexham)
Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD
Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – WDWLL
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Wrexham Wins = 3 Draws = 2 Ebbsfleet Wins = 0
Betting Summary
02 / 03 / 2013
MAN UTD v Norwich
This is a no brainer for me. United have a almost perfect home record of W12 D0 L1, with the defeat coming way back in September in a 2-3 defeat to Tottenham, whilst they have scored 34 goals and conceded just 15 at home. Norwich’s away record is poor, having W1 D1 L6, scoring 11 and conceding 26. This stats represent a home/away GD swing of 34 (favours United).
Recent form going into this game could not be much better for United, having won 4 on the bounce, 8 of the last 10, whilst being unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions. Norwich have picked up some valuable points over the last few weeks which has given them some breathing space from the relegation zone. Last week’s win over Everton will have boosted their confidence, but I still feel that away from home they will struggle. Despite managing to actually defeat United earlier in the season 1-0, last season United did the double and I fully expect them to pick up the 3 points on Saturday which will edge them ever closer to the title.
BRIGHTON v Huddersfield
The last couple of weeks have seen Brighton pick up 10/12 points against top half of the table teams, reinforcing their credentials for a play of spot. Furthermore, in this period they have beaten both Hull & Cardiff who themselves look shoe-ins for the play offs and automatic promotion respectively.
Going into this game Brighton will surely fancy themselves, having achieved a home record of W7 D7 L3, scored 23 and conceded 14. Their opponents, Huddersfield, have not lost in 2 games now as they look to move away from the relegation dogfight. Away from home their record is less than impressive having W5 D3 L9, scoring 16 and conceding 38. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 31 (favours Brighton).
Brighton have beaten their opponents already this season, and despite Huddersfield doing the double over Brighton last season, due to Huddersfield’s poor defensive away record, I can see Brighton snatching this one.
Oldham v SHEFF UTD
It took some thinking for me to opt for this game, primarily due to Oldham’s good form. However, despite Oldham winning 3 on the bounce, they face a Sheff Utd side who have gone 5 unbeaten, winning 4 before a midweek draw with Leyton Orient. Of the 3 games that Oldham have won recently, 2 of them were home games against MK Dons, who are now winless in 7, and a Portsmouth side in freefall. Sheff Utd meanwhile have 3 away games in succession recently, beating struggling Bury and Shrewsbury sides, but notable defeating a good quality Bournemouth side. Another point is that i believe Oldham’s recent revival of sorts owes partly to the positive vibe the FA Cup had provided the club, with much needed funds and excitement in what had otherwise been a doom and gloom season. Now that their FA Cup bubble has burst, it would not surprise me should they experience a slump.
The Sheffield side have a solid away record, having W9 D6 L2, scoring 21 and conceding 12. Oldham’s home record is below par having W5 D3 L8, scoring 17 and conceding 19. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 11 (favours Sheff Utd). I don’t envisage there being many goals in this one, but am backing Sheff Utd to edge it.
KIDDERMINSTER v Ebbsfleet
Its 2nd versus 23rd in this match up, with Kidderminster looking to keep pace with table toppers Wrexham. There appears to be a gulf in class in the Conference this season, with Kidderminster being one the sides who have been impressive both home & away. At home this season they have a record of W10 D3 L4, scoring 31 and conceding 14. They face an Ebbsfleet side who have faced difficulties on their travels this season, producing a record of W3 D2 L9, scoring just 18 and conceding 31. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 30 (favours Kidderminster).
Recent form points to the direction of Kidderminster in terms of winning this tie, with the home side winning 6 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10 games. Ebbsfleet’s recent form is less impressive, yet not too shabby. There recent 5 game record reads as LWDWL. Perhaps relevant to this game is the fact that they lost to Grimsby in midweek 3-1, this being a Grimsby side who are going toe-to-toe with Kidderminster this season. The distance that the Ebbsfleet side travelled in midweek, combined with another journey on Saturday may have a negative effect on the side.
Interestingly over the last 3 season, in which there have been 5 games, the sides have been inseparable, drawing all of the matches. Despite this I expect nothing less than a home win.
MANSFIELD v Telford
Mansfield face Telford in this encounter, and as we near the business end of the season I expect the promotion chases to secure 3 points against this Telford side who are rooted firmly to the bottom of the table. They should be full of confidence this weekend having won 4 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10. Their home record stands at W10 D3 L3, scoring 37 and scoring 15. Their opponents this weekend have struggled away from home, producing a record of miserable reading: W3 D7 L7, scoring 22 and conceding 25, culminating in a home/away GD swing of 22 (favours Mansfield). Their recent form is awful, losing 5 on the bounce and 7 of the last 10, as well as being winless in the last 17 games in all competitions. The last 3 games between the sides have ended with draws but again, I can see a home win here.
WREXHAM v Alfreton
Yet another top end side at home in the Conference here, and again im backing them to pick up the 3 points against a team who have been in a slow, yet gradual slide down the table since the beginning of December. At home Wrexham have a record to be proud of – W8 D5 L2, scoring 35 and conceding 18. Alfreton have actually got a fairly decent away record of W6 D5 L7, scoring 23 and conceding 29. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 23 (favours Wrexham). One worry I do have is that earlier in the season Alfreton beat Wrexham when away from home 2-4, but Nethertheless I would be surprised if Wrexham were unable to win this tie.
WOKING v Lincoln
Yet another Conference match I’m backing here, and once again another home team who I feel will benefit from the advantage that this brings. Woking still harbor hopes of clinching a play off spot, and despite being 12 points behind 6th place currently, they have been in fine form of late and it is their ambition that is also should see them through this game as victors. Their home form has being up there with the best in the league, having W10 D1 L5, scoring 32 and conceding 23. Woking go into the match on the back of two victories, first against a mid table Southport and then against play off contenders Forest Green. Beating Forest Green indicates that Woking have the quality to reach the play off zone, and should be capable of beating opponents such as Lincoln. This Lincoln side have won just once in their last ten games, and lost 3 of the last 4. They are out of form and are in real danger of relegation. Their away form reads as W3 D5 L7, scoring 20 and conceding 26. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 15 (favours Woking). Earlier in the season, Woking beat Lincoln 0-2 away from home, and I would expect a similar result here.
Betting Summary
Best Odds as of 01/03/2013 with BetVictor