29 / 11 / 2014
MK DONS v Colchester
Looking to maintain their position as the best home side in League One, the MK Dons host Colchester, who’s away form is below average. Colchester’s last victory on their travels came a full 2 months ago against a poor Crewe side, although this didnt lead to a good run of away form as they have drew 2 and lost 2 since then. MK Dons home form is strong having won 4 on the bounce before drawing with Rochdale in their last fixture. If we look at recent form, MK Dons are unbeaten in 7 league games, whereas Colchester have lost their last 3 games.
SWINDON v Fleetwood
The 3rd best home side vs the 17th best away side here, with Swindon having picked up twice as many points at home as Fleetwood have on their travels. Swindon are in good form having won 4 of their last 5 games, the only blip being a defeat to a decent MK Dons, whilst Fleetwood are in less than impressive form having a recent record of won 2 lost 3, with their victories coming against weak sides in Gillingham and Yeovil.
Hartlepool v WYCOMBE
An interesting match up here with the worst home sides playing host to the best away side. Hartlepool have picked up just 6 points at home, whilst Wycombe have more than tripled that return in their away games. Hartlepool have scored just 6 goals at home this season, and facing a defence who have conceded just 7 when away doesn’t bode well. Looking at overall form, Wycombe have been a little inconsistent of late, but with Hartlepool being consistently poor, i would expect Wycombe to take the points in this tie.
LUTON v Mansfield
The 5th best home side against the 5th worst away side, with Luton looking to maintain their position in the top 3 in League Two. Luton have conceded just 4 goals at home this season meaning they have the 3rd best home defence, whilst Mansfield have scored just 5 away goals meaning they are the joint 2nd worst goalscoring side away from home.
BRISTOL ROVERS v Welling
Bristol are the 3rd best home side in the Conference Premier this season, and face Welling who are the 5th worst away side. With Bristol picking up more than 3x as many points than Welling (home v away) and their being a 17 GD swing (home/away), the points do look to be staying in Bristol this weekend.
Telford v GRIMSBY
Staying in the conference here, and Telford, the worst home side in the division, host Grimsby, the 3rd best away side. Having picked up just 8 points at home so far primarily due to having the weakest defensive record having conceded 25 goals, Telford will have a challenge to deny Grimsby the 3 points considering they are the 3rd most prolific goalscoring away side.
6 Fold @ 36/1
22 / 11 / 2014
NEWCASTLE v Queens Park Rangers
STOKE v Burnley
BLACKBURN v Leeds
Blackpool v BOLTON
Wigan v MIDDLESBROUGH
Burton v LUTON
Cheltenham v WYCOMBE
Tranmere v SOUTHEND
MACCLESFIELD v Alfreton
Woking v BARNET
10 Fold @ 3058/1
15 / 11 / 2014
A nice 6-fold played as a accumulator and Heinz this weekend:
08 / 11 /2014
Burnley v HULL
SOUTHAMPTON v Leicester
Brighton v BLACKBURN
READING v Charlton
Coventry v NOTTS COUNTY
PRESTON v Bradford
Scunthorpe v MK DONS
LUTON v Tranmere
SHREWSBURY v Mansfield
I have played the highlighted fixtures in a four fold separately.
01 / 11 / 2014
Hull v SOUTHAMPTON
Blackpool v IPSWICH
Brentford v DERBY
NOTTS COUNTY v Walsall
SHEFF UTD v Barnsley
Hartlepool v NEWPORT
Telford v BRISTOL ROVERS
Nuneaton v MACCLESFIELD
Welling v BARNET
8 Fold @ 559/1
SkyBet are also offering a decent price of 4/1 on Chelsea, Arsenal & Everton to win their games, which i would also recommend.
25 / 10 / 2014
Birmingham City v Afc Bournemouth
Match Result
Afc Bournemouth 2.00
Barnsley v Bristol City
Match Result
Bristol City 2.10
Shrewsbury Town v Portsmouth
Match Result
Shrewsbury Town 1.80
Scunthorpe United v Notts County
Match Result
Notts County 2.90
Preston North End v Fleetwood Town
Match Result
Preston North End 1.67
Played as Accumulator, Doubles & Trebles
21 / 10 / 2014
Midweek Heinz @ 40/1
MK Dons, Barnet, Derby, Luton, Wycombe, Bristol City
18 / 10 / 2014
The above 7 fold pays @ 100/1
ARSENAL v Hull
I fancy Arsenal in this fixture, with the Gunners looking to build on their unbeaten home record. The face Hull who having done decent away from home will face a challenge this weekend that is likely to exceed those faced in the away fixtures thus far. Arsenal have won the last 7 fixtures against Hull, and with the most recent victory coming in last seasons FA Cup final the footballing Gods will surely favour a home win here.
Crystal Palace v CHELSEA
A slightly below par start to the season in terms of results has left Crystal Palace in 15th position after 7 games, and they will not relish hosting Chelsea this weekend. Jose Mourinho’s side have won 6 and drawn 1 so far this season, with a GD of +14. Three consecutive clean sheets, one of which came in the Champions League against Sporting Lisbon, will please Mourinho who will want his side to keep this defensive strength moving forward.
Yeovil v SWINDON
21st v 5th in this fixtures, and Yeovil’s home record of W1 D3 L2 with a GD of -4 is a set of stats which will fill visitors Swindon with confidence given that they have an away record of W3 D1 L1 with a GD of +4. Swindon have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their league fixtures so far this season, and with Yeovil conceding 2 or more in 7 of their fixtures, I have to back Swindon here.
PRESTON v Port Vale
Recent results have moved Preston up the league standings, with performances that display the strength they have in the squad. 3 consecutive league victories, 2 of which came alongside clean sheets, will have boosted their confidence and being at home will be a further bonus. Yeovil will have a job on their hands if they are to disrupt Preston’s home record of W3 D3 L0, and given that they have an away record of W2 D0 L4, i dont fancy their chances.
Coventry v BRISTOL CITY
Winless in 5 league games, and with 4 defeats in this run, Coventry are slipping down the league, yet will be buoyed by their decent home form. However, they face a quality side in Bristol City who have an away record of W3 D3 L0. The Sky Blues have conceded 2 or more in 6 league games so far, whilst Bristol have scored 2 or more in 9 league games. It would appear that Bristol should expect to find the net on a couple of occasions this weekend.
Hartlepool v LUTON
21st v 4th in this tie and Hartlepool will have a tough task to improve on their record as the worst home side in the Football League. A home record of W1 D2 L3, with a GD of -5 is nothing to be proud of. Luton are classed as the 2nd best away side, and with an away record that reads as W3 D2 L1, with a +1 GD they will surely be confident of picking up a positive result on their travels this weekend. 5 clean sheets in their last 6 league games shows that Hartlepool are going to need to make the most of any chances that come their way, but having failed to score in 8 of their league games i doubt Luton have much to worry about!
MACCLESFIELD v Dover
This selection is based on the home/away form of each side. Macclesfield’s home form reads as W4 D4 L0, with a GD of +7, whilst Dover’s away form stats are W1 D2 L5, with a GD of -9. A home/away GD swing of 16 is an indicated of the challenge Dover face in this fixture. Macclesfield will be hoping to add to their 4 home clean sheets, and having scored in all but one of their home games will fancy finding the net against a Dover side without an away clean sheet. These stats point towards a home win for me.
Both Teams To Score @ 32/1:
04 / 10 / 2014
Aston Villa v MAN CITY
Villa’s great start to the season has well and truly ended with successive defeats against Arsenal and Chelsea indicating that they are no match for the best sides in the division. Conceding 3 goals in these games and scoring zero is a sign of how their match against Man City is likely to go in my eyes.
CHARLTON v Birmingham
Charlton’s midweek win over table topping Norwich will further raise confidence in the home camp as they welcome a Birmingham side who are struggling and sit in 20th position. Birmingham have some exciting talent in their squad but Charlton look like a decent outfit this season so far and they seem to have the capability to control this game against weaker opposition.
DERBY v Millwall
With Millwall having lost 4 of their last 5 games, Derby will really fancy getting the maximum points on home soil this weekend and on the back of 2 victories and 2 clean sheets, Derby should be a decent shout for a comfortable win.
NORWICH v Rotherham
I fancy Norwich to bounce back from their late defeat against Charlton when they host Rotherham this weekend. The quality they have in their squad should be enough to see them beat sides of Rotherham’s stature, and the home advantage is something the Canaries will look to build on.
ROCHDALE v Barnsley
3 consecutive wins have propelled Rochdale into the play off places and hosting 21st placed Barnsley should not cause too many nerves in the home dressing room. Rochdale have been quite impressive defensively over recent weeks after recording 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games, and with Barnsley scoring just once in their last 3 fixtures Rochdale will look to build on their defensive strength and record a home win over their struggling opponents.
BRADFORD v Crewe
A win this weekend could see Bradford climb into the play off places, so playing host to Crewe who are currently propping up the table will only raise expectations from the home fans. Bradford’s recent form is ok after going 3 games unbeaten, but it is Crewe’s form which points to a home win with the away side having lost their last 3 games convincingly.
BURY v Tranmere
Bury lost their last fixture to an in form Exeter side and their manager David Flitcroft was disappointed with his sides inability to convert more of the chances they managed to create. This week I expect this decent Bury side to bounce back and take out any frustrations on Tranmere, who are winless in 5, failing to scoring in 3 of these fixtures.
7 Fold @ 54/1
27 / 09 / 2014
Hull v MAN CITY
Blackpool v NORWICH
Coventry v PRESTON
Exeter v BURY
Telford v TORQUAY
5 Fold @ 24/1
The Soccer Surgeon 