25 / 08 / 2014 *Free Money*
Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort. Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!
Route 1:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on Man City Double Chance – ‘Man City/Draw’ currently @1.25, returning £62.50
Then place £50 on Liverpool in play during the game currently @ 4.00 this returns £200.00
This means that if the game ends as a draw or Man City win, you will make £12.50 profit. However if Liverpool win, you will make £100.00 profit.
Route 2:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Man City/Liverpool @ 1.28, this returns £64.00
Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @3.75, returning £187.50
This means if Man City or Liverpool win, you will make £14.00 profit. However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £87.50 profit
18 / 02 / 2014 – Man City v Barcelona *Free Money*
Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort.
Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!
Route 1:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on Man City Double Chance – ‘Man City/Draw’ currently @1.55, returning £77.50
Then place £50 on Barcelona in play during the game currently @ 2.40 this returns £120
This means that if the game ends as a draw or Man City win, you will make £27.50 profit.
However if Barcelona win, you will make £20 profit.
Route 2:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Man City/Barcelona @ 1.30, this returns £65
Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @3.60, returning £180
This means if Man City or Barcelona win, you will make £15 profit.
However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £80 profit.
Route 3:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on Barcelona Double Chance – ‘Draw/Barcelona’ currently @1.40, returning £70
Then place £50 on Man City in play during the game currently @ 3.00 this returns £150
This means that if the game ends as a draw or Barcelona win, you will make £20 profit.
However if Man City win, you will make £50 profit.
Season Long Bets
It is just a few days before the Premier League kicks off for what promises to be one of the most competitive seasons for years. With Man United, Man City & Chelsea all having new managers it remains to be seen who will triumph come the end of May. Not only have those at the top of the league invested, the rest of the league have too with Norwich looking like they have had a good transfer window, whilst Sunderland have had an overhaul of last seasons failing squad. Here i have selected a few bets which will run for the whole season.
League Winners:
Premier League – Chelsea @ 3.25 (EW)
Championship – Reading @ 9 (EW)
League One – Wolves @ 4.5 (EW)
League Two – Chesterfield @ 8.5 (EW)
4-fold with SkyBet
Premier League Top Goalscorer:
I tried to avoid RVP here as there is little value with him, whilst Bale is too risky with the strong Madrid interest. As for Suarez, his current fallout with Liverpool means that even when he has served the rest of his ban he may not be a starting 11 player, nor fully match fit thus giving him potentially a 10 game handicap.
Romelu Lukaku @ 26 (EW) – Bet365
Edin Dzeko @ 34 (EW) – Bet365
Premier League Relegation:
Fulham @ 8 – BetVictor
Top 8 Finish:
Swansea @ 3.5 – Stan James
2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction
For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really. The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.
Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners
In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.
For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.
League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.
And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.
19 / 01 / 2013
Man City v Fulham
Man City shouldn’t experience too many problems in overcoming Fulham in this weekend’s fixture. Their opponents have been stuttering this season, winning just 2 in 10. These wins came against a Newcastle side who have their own problems this season and against a West Brom side who have been out of form. City, on the other hand, have been picking up the points needed to just about keep them in touch with United in the title race. Their home form this season has seen them play effectively, picking up 8W 2D and just 1D, scoring 25 goals in the process (averaging 2.27 goals per game) while conceding just 9. Over the last 3 seasons Fulham have failed to get the better of City, losing twice last season, including a 3-0 away defeat. I feel Fulham’s defence is relatively weak, and it would be no surprise to me to see City exploit the lack of pace that they possess.
Leeds v Bristol
Leeds’ inconsistency this season has deservedly left them sitting in 11th position in the league courtesy of a record of W11 D5 L11, so invariable they are either good, or bad. If we separate home and away games, and focus solely on the home matches, the record stands at W8 D2 L3, which is impressive. Somewhat surprisingly their goals statistics in the home games read scored 19, conceded 17, which implies that they struggling to really get firing infront of goal yet find defending somewhat troublesome too. Fortunately they face a Bristol City side who have the same issues away from home just on a grander scale. On their travels Bristol have W3 D2 L8, scoring just 14 and conceding 21. Leeds United have lost just once in their last six home games, winning four and drawing the other one. The goals for column just outweighs the goals against over this period, 8 to 7. Bristol City have an average recent record on the road, picking up two good wins, but losing three, from the last six. The Robins have scored 8 goals in these games, but conceded an alarming 10. I don’t expect Leeds to run riot, but i expect them to just be that little bit too good this weekend.
Watford v Huddersfield
I really fancy Watford to do the job in this fixture. They got the better of Huddersfield when they travelled up north in September in a 2-3 result. This came after Huddersfield had began Championship life impressively, and on the back of a 6 game unbeaten run and 3 successive victories. Watford’s squad had been completely overhauled at this point, and since then they have had time to bond together. Watford’s home form has been inconsistent but good enough for them to remain at the top end of the table, with a record of W6 D2 L5, scoring 20 and conceding 15. Huddersfield’s away form is similar, W4 D3 L6 scoring 15 and conceding 25. So results wise they aren’t too dissimilar, but it is in the goals statistics that I feel this game can be won. In the Home/Away GD’s, Watford are +5 whilst Huddersfield are -10. Recent form doesn’t do the away side any favours either, as they are winless in the last 11 league games, whilst Watford have won 6 and drew 2 of their last 10 games. A home win for me here.
Swindon v Shrewsbury
Interestingly for this fixture, both sides haven’t experienced too many defeats recently. You have to go back to the 24th November for the last time Swindon tasted defeat, whilst Shrewsbury last lost on the same date. Since then, due to the relative ambitions of the sides, both of them will be pleased with their run of results. Shrewsbury have gone unbeaten, drawing 6 and winning 2 games, whilst Swindon have also remained unbeaten, winning 4 and drawing 2. Perhaps playing what will be their 9th game in 56 days, averaging a game every 6 days, may have an effect on the Shrewbury squad, who face a Swindon side who will be playing what will be their 7th game in this 56 day period, at an average of a game every 8 days. Swindon have a decent home record; W7 D4 L3, scoring 30 goals and conceding just 8. Away from home Shrewsbury have struggled, with W1 D6 L7, scoring just 13 goals and conceding 20. Swindon have the better of their opponents in head to heads, beating them earlier in the season 0-1, whilst in the home game last season they won 2-1. Although there is a degree of unease at Swindon currently, I feel that DiCanio will not allow his sides on-field performances suffer.
Doncaster v Leyton Orient
After going through a purple patch, Leyton Orient have stuttered recently, whereas Doncaster have maintained a prolonged period of great form. Despite having indifferent home form, Doncaster should be able to overcome an opponent who are equally as topsy turvy away from home. Doncaster have a home record of W6 D2 L5 whilst Leyton Orient have an away record of W5 D1 L6. Neither side have scored too many goals in their relative home/away fixtures, so I wouldn’t expect the goals to flow in this one. Earlier in the season Doncaster won 0-2 away from home, and I fully expect them to do the double here.
Additional to make 7fold
Rochdale v Gillingham
Bristol Rovers v Exeter
04 / 12 / 2012
Champions League tonight, with some of the teams already through to the next round, whilst others are battling for Europa League Qualification… I have decided on a trio of matches, with a variation of bets.
Real Madrid v Ajax
Despite the likelihood of Madrid using squad players in defence, i still fancy them to win the game. However, the decision to rest first team players increases the chances of Ajax finding the net. As i believe Ajax will score, but Madrid will win, i will suggest a stake on O2.5 goals in the game, a side bet of O1.5 in the first half, BTTS and Madrid win. O2.5 goals in the first half has come good in both of Ajax’s last two Champions League matches as well as in Madrid’s last home game in the competition, but i am going to choose O1.5 in first half for a bit of a safer bet. In their last 4 encounters, Madrid have won by no less than 3 goals, and you have to go back to ’95 for the last time Ajax beat their Spanish opponents.
Dortmund v Man City
After the performances of English sides in last seasons Europa League, im questioning whether Man City will have the desire to fight for a place in Europes second competition. Even so, without David Silva and Yaya Toure, combined with the absence of LB duo Kolarov and Clichy, i don’t think they will even have a good enough side to qualify even if they wanted to.
As a result i expect Dortmund, boosted by their vast support which epitomises home advantage, to begin on the front foot. I will suggest a stake on Dortmund to score first, odds of around 1.83 seem tasty. In Dortmunds last three Champions League games, they have scored a total of 6 times before half time, and combined with the away sides diminished creativity and drive due to Silva and Yaya’s absence, i will stake on Dortmund to be leading at half time at odds of around 2.80
As i have suggested Dortmund will be victories in this match, it makes sense for me to back them to win both halves, with the HT/FT market at around 3.50 for this, which i feel represents decent value.
Malaga v Anderlecht
I hoping that Malaga coach Pellegrini was not just playing for the cameras in claiming his side are going out to win this match. Malaga have already qualified for the next stage, whilst Anderlecht will be looking to secure Europa League qualification. Despite the difference in ambition for the match that these circumstances could lead to, i feel that Malaga will be looking to maintain their unbeaten record in Europe this season, whilst finishing top of the group could bring in some much needed extra revenue, which the club severely requires. Despite stuttering in the League recently, the Spaniards have one of the meanest defences in the Champions League having conceded just three goals, only Group A’s Paris Saint-Germain and Porto have conceded fewer. I dont feel that Anderlecht will have enough to break down this defence, despite it being without Martin Demichelis, who has been an important part of Malaga’s side this season. Malaga can call on Isco for a bit of magic if they need a goal, whilst the recent return of Julio Baptista is a boost to their attacking options. I will be looking at small bets for a Malaga clean sheet, to Win to Nil, Score in Both Halves, & Isco to score anytme in this match.
Summary
Madrid, Dortmund, Malaga – Doubles/Treble – BetVictor
Real Madrid v Ajax, Dortmund v Man City, Malaga v Anderlecht – Over 2.5 Goals – Doubles/Treble – BetFred
Real Madrid v Ajax – Both Teams to Score – BetFred
Real Madrid v Ajax – Over 1.5 Goals in First Half – BetFred
Dortmund to Score first – BetFred
Dortmund HT – Coral
Dortmund HT/FT – BetFred
Isco (Malaga) Anytime Scorer – Bet365
Malaga Clean Sheet – WilliamHill
Malaga Win to Nil – WilliamHill
Malaga Score in Both Halves WilliamHill
25 / 11 / 2012
Chelsea v Man City
It’s unlikely either side is going to dominate this match, with Chelsea losing just once at home while City remain unbeaten in away games. Chelsea have a +7 goal difference in their home games, scoring 14 and conceding 7, whilst City have a +2 goal difference in away matches after scoring just 7 goals but conceding 5. I’m curious to see whether Rafa Benitez tries to change Chelsea style or formation in his first match in charge, and even more interesting to see whether he can tap in Torres’ talents. With City’s forward line, they are always capable of finding the net, especially when they are up against David Luiz. In the last 3 seasons between the sides, out of the 6 games played 4 have had more than 2 goals in them, whilst 4 have also seen both teams score. If i had to pick a winner here, i’m looking more towards Chelsea due to home advantage and City’s relative poor form. What i do fancy is ‘both teams to score’ and O2.5 goals.
Southampton v Newcastle
Nigel Adkins Southampton are yet to achieve a clean sheet this season, so Demba Ba will surely be looking to add to his 8 goals.The Saints seem very weak defensively, and it would be no major surprise were they to concede. However, Newcastle are missing a few key players such as Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Collocini. These absentee’s will seriously hamper the Magpies attacking creativity, but also their solidarity at the back. Collocini’s calmness and influence will be missed, and with Southampton displaying this season that they can score goals, im inclined to go again for a ‘both teams to score’. Due to both sides frailties, i might take a little punt on O2.5 goals. As with the Chelsea v Man City match, i’m struggling to pick a winner here; Southampton are poor at home, Newcastle are yet to win away. I’ve got a feeling this could end up as a draw.
Tottenham v West Ham
I can see this London derby ending up as a low scoring affair, primarily due to both sides goal statistics this season. Spurs have scored 8 and conceded 8 at home, whilst the Hammer have scored 4 and conceded 6 in away matches. Recent form points towards West Ham in this one, having gone 3 unbeaten (1W & 2D) whereas Spurs have lost their last 3 matches. The most recent defeat was against Arsenal, where Adebayor got sent off, and his presence will be missed against a combative West Ham. From the Spurs matches i have seen, it appears they are trying too hard to play ‘football’, and need to adopt a more direct style to get some wins on the board. A striker pairing, i.e Adebayor and Defoe, would allow them to do this, but ABV’s reluctance, and obviously Adebayor’s absence, means that they will not be able to do this against the Hammers. In the midweek Europa league tie against Lazio i was amazed that Tottenham did lose. Hugo Lloris was outstanding in my opinion, but then we just don’t know whether the French stopper or evergreen Brad Friedel will be between the sticks. This rotation is ridiculous really, it does little to help the goalkeepers, and is even less help in allowing the defensive unit of GK and defence to form a real understanding between each other. Despite this, being of the opinion that West Ham’s strengths lie in set pieces, the height that Spurs have in their side defensively with the likes of Gallas, Vertonghen, & Caulker, i can see them nullifying West Ham’s key attacking route. Again, ‘both teams to score’ for me, making a nice treble for the day. If i had to pick a winner, i’m leaning toward West Ham to win and put even more pressure on ABV.
Summary:
Low Confidence
Southampton v Newcastle O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.75/1
Medium Confidence
Southampton v Newcastle Draw
Chelsea Win
West Ham Win
High Confidence
‘BTTS’ treble BetFred @ 4.5/1
The Soccer Surgeon 