20 / 09 / 2014
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
Villa have started the season well, there is no doubt about it. However, they have scored just 4 goals and have not recorded what i would describe as a convincing victory over any side as yet. Arsenal would have wanted to have 3 wins and a draw as opposed to the 1 win and 3 draws that they have achieved in the League so far, but they remain unbeaten and this should not be ignored. You have to go back to 1998 for the last time Villa achieved a home win over The Gunners, and I’m sure that Arsenal will be striving to put a dismal performance in the Champions League against Dortmund behind them and give their Premier League campaign a shot in the arm.
Millwall v NOTTM FOREST
Forest are flying at the minute, with a record of W5 D2 L0, whilst scoring 17 and conceding 7 setting them up in a nice position at the top of the table. They face a Millwall side who have failed to build on a promising start to the campaign, after winning 2 and drawing 1 from their first 3 league games have now lost 3 of their last 4, with an unimpressive win over the comedy circus that is Blackpool the only positive in a poor run. Britt Assombalonga is a striker in fine form and Nottm Forest can seemingly rely on the big man to get them goals this season, so with Millwall’s attack looking goal shy in comparison, i fancy the away side to take the spoils.
NORWICH v Birmingham
Norwich look like they will be challenging for an automatic return to the Premier League after a posting a record of W5 D1 L1 with a +10 GD. They face a Birmingham side who have done just enough to avoid being in the relegation zone, and battling against relegation is something they should expect to be doing the whole season. Norwich have scored 3 or more goals in 5 games this season, as well as achieving 3 clean sheets. Birmingham have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 games this season, managing just 1 clean sheets. For me, these stats speak volumes and a home win looks inevitable.
Fleetwood v BRISTOL CITY
A record of W6 D2 L0 (+11 GD) has propelled Bristol to the top of the League One table, whilst Fleetwood sit in 8th after a decent start to the campaign with a record of W3 D3 L2 (+2 GD). Bristol have won 4 on the bounce, as well as posting 3 consecutive clean sheets. Their opponents Fleetwood have lost 3 of their last 4 games, whilst also finding themselves unable to score any goals in their last 3 games. When you compare each sides recent record Bristol clearly will be the more confident side and i expect them to take all 3 points this weekend.
MK DONS v Crewe
Despite losing to Bradford in their last game, i still fancy MK Dons this weekend where they can bounce back against Crewe. At home, MK Dons have a record of W4 D1 L0 (+10 GD), with 3 clean sheets in all competitions, whilst Crewe have an away record of W1 D1 L3 (-3 GD), with 1 clean sheet. Crewe have conceded 2 goals in 3 of their away games, whilst the MK Dons have scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their home games. These stats lead me to foresee a comfortable home win.
Port Vale v BARNSLEY
Port Vale are in a barren run of 6 consecutive defeats, and with manager Micky Adams openly stating that he feels he may have done as much as he can at the club, they go into this weekend fixture with Barnsley with what seems to be a lack of direction and void of confidence. Barnsley on the other hand have suffered the anguish of defeat just once in their last seven games, and their away record during the season had yielded 1 win and 3 draws. Barnsley look like a difficult side to beat, but need to convert some draws into wins if they are to move up the table, but what better opportunity could they ask for than Port Vale in their current plight?
Yeovil v PETERBOROUGH
Yeovil have an injury list to contend with as they host Peterborough this weekend, and at this level not many sides have quality throughout their squad so they will have a challenge on their hands to get something out of a game with one of the Leagues better teams. The home side have a record this season of W2 D3 L3 (-3 GD) whilst Peterborough have a record of W5 D1 L2 (+5 GD). Further stats which point towards an away win are that Yeovil are currently the ranked 20th in terms of home records with no wins on home soil as yet, securing just 3 draws and suffering 1 defeat, whereas Peterborough are classed as the 3rd best away side with a record of W3 D0 L1, registering 2 clean sheets as well.
BARNET v Altrincham
Barnet suffered a home defeat to Wrexham in their last fixture, but i consider The Bees to be one of the divisions best sides and the promotion hopefuls will want an immediate return to winning ways when they face Altrincham this weekend. Barnet have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their games this season, and with their opponents having conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of their games, you would expect Barnet to be finding the net a couple of times this weekend against statistically weaker opponents.
TORQUAY v Dover
Torquay are the form side in the Conference Premier at the moment, are playing host to a struggling Dover side is unlikely to cause too them many sleepless nights. Torquay have won 5 on the bounce, as well as recording 4 consecutive clean sheets. Torquay have a home record of W3 D2 L0, scoring 9 & conceding 1, with 4 home clean sheets. Dover have an away record of W1 D1 L3, scoring 7 and conceding 13. These stats say to me that Torquay will put a few past Dover with there being little chance of reply from their opponents.
9 Fold @ 416 / 1
Heinz (Norwich, Nottm Forest, Bristol City, MK Dons, Torquay & Barnet) @ 31/1
14 / 09 / 2013
Big Odds Win 9-Fold
Bit of a long shot here but they all have a chance of winning so i’ve stuck a quid or so on! Fingers Crossed…
—
Sunderland v ARSENAL (WIN)
Paulo DiCanio’s Sunderland are struggling to get going in the league this season, picking up just 1 point from 3 games, all of which on paper they had a chance of winning. They face an Arsenal side who for all of their critics have done okay so far other than the opening day defeat to Aston Villa. The Sunderland side are obviously going to take time to gel given the number of summer signings, and playing host to an Arsenal side who have enjoyed the majority of their visits to the Stadium of Light in recent seasons is likely to prove to be a tough task this weekend.
– Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals (WIN)
Everton v CHELSEA (LOSE)
It will be interesting to see how the loss of Fellaini to Man United on transfer deadline day affects Everton. The big Belgian has been a key player for the Toffees over the last few years and his presence could prove to be too much of a loss for Everton to cope with against the bigger sides. 3 draws against average opponents this season are an indication of how the transition from David Moyes to Roberto Martinez has gone for Everton; not bad, could be better. They managed to do good business on transfer deadline day, although their most impressive signing of Romelu Lukaku, who is quite clearly an upgrade on the departed Anichebe, is not able to play this weekend against his parent club. The other deadline day signings of Wigan midfielder James McCarthy and Manchester City’s England international midfielder Gareth Barry are unlikely to offer an adequate attacking substitute in the absences of Fellaini, Lukaku, and Anichebe
– Chelsea clean sheet (LOSE)
NOTTM FOREST v Barnsley (WIN)
With Adlene Guedioura leaving Forest for the Premier League with Crystal Palace, there is a starting space in the Forest line up for a midfielder. Fortunately for Billy Davies, he has a strong squad at his disposal. Forest really should be looking to beat teams like Barnsley if they have a real hope for promotion this season. They have had a strong start to the season despite being narrowly beaten by a decent Wigan side in their last fixture. Barnsley have had a difficult start to the season, primarily due to their leaky defence. Barnsley haven’t beaten Forest in 5 meetings now, and over the summer it is fair to say that Forest considerably strengthened their squad and should have the cutting edge in this fixture.
– Nottm Forest Over 1.5 Goals (WIN)
QPR v Birmingham (WIN)
As the season progresses, and the longer that Harry Redknapp has on the training field with his revamped squad, I can only see QPR becoming a stronger unit. They are currently joint top, 2nd only on goal difference, after an impressive start to their campaign recording 4 wins and 1 draw. Redknapp will be looking for his side to start scoring more goals however. I look at the Birmingham squad and it doesn’t impress me. There is depth to it, but an obvious lack in quality. The strikers who seem to have secured 1st team places under Lee Clarke are Danny Green and Lee Novak. Both of these players have found the net just once this season, and to be honest I consider them both to be League One players. The Blues have lost out to Watford & Leicester this season, both sides who appear to have aspirations and quality similar to that of QPR, and when you consider that QPR have quality in both attack and defence, I believe they will be too strong for Birmingham.
– QPR clean sheet (WIN)
LEYTON ORIENT v Port Vale (WIN)
Top of the table Leyton Orient face mid table Pot Vale here, and everybody will be expecting a home win for the side who are leading league one. Despite Port Vale winning their last two games I wouldn’t expect them to get anything from this game. These results came against League Two Bury, and then Carlisle who are really struggling this season, with both victories being by a 1 goal margin. Edging past teams who are much weaker than yourselves isn’t that impressive. In all but 1 of their games this season Leyton Orient have scored 2 or more, yet Port Vale also have a knack of finding the net. They are not prolific, but are consistent in that they manage to score in most games they play, so in this game I fancy a couple of side bets.
– Leyton Orient Over 1.5 Goals (WIN)
– Both Teams to Score & home win (WIN)
MK DONS v Notts County (WIN)
MK Dons have a good shout of being in the mix at the top end of the table if they can maintain their early season form. If they can turn some of the draws into wins then they will definitely be there or thereabouts come the end of the season. They remain unbeaten in the League, and gave a good account of themselves against Premier League Sunderland in the cup. Their opponents Notts County are rooted to the bottom of the table on GD after Coventry managed to clear their -10point deficit. Winless this season, losing 4 of their 5 league games, they are also now goalless in 2 league matches. They did manage to win 1-0 at home to League Two side Burton in the JPT in their last fixture, but i don’t think that this win will lift the players enough to beat MK Dons.
ROTHERHAM v Oldham (WIN)
Oldham’s recent form of losing 4 of their last 5 games, coupled with the quality of the Rotherham side is enough for me to opt for a home win here. Unbeaten in the League, Rotherham will be full of confidence. However, I don’t expect a high scoring game as Oldham haven’t conceded too many goals this season as yet.
– Under 2.5 Goals (LOSE)
Cheltenham v OXFORD (LOSE)
League Two’s leakiest defence plays host to the league tops scorers in this one. When Cheltenham faced Chesterfield, who are 1 place higher than Oxford, they lost the game 2-0. Portsmouth & Torquay, both of whom are around the same position as Cheltenham, were defeated by Oxford comfortably. Oxford will be expecting to win this game but will know they will have to put a performance on as Cheltenham really should be doing better than they are.
– Over 2.5 Goals (WIN)
Dartford v NUNEATON (WIN)
FX Halifax & Lincoln both find themselves in the play off zone currently, and both of them have beaten Dartford this season. These results will boost Nuneaton’s confidence of picking up the 3 points this weekend as they currently sit in 2nd place in the league. Nuneaton are currently unbeaten this season and will hope to maintain that record against a Dartford side who have lost 4 of their 7 games.
– Nuneaton Over 1.5 Goals (WIN)
My most recommended bet of the weekend is a double chance 6 fold laid covering the 3, 4, 5, & 6 fold.
Early Kick Off
Man United Team Cards – Over 0.5 @ 1.72 (WIN)
Man United to Win to Nil @ 1.80 (WIN)
Robin Van Persie Anytime @ 1.52 (WIN)
Post Game Summary:
In total I looked at a total of 27 bets (if played as singles). I managed to call a total of 22 correct.
03 / 08 / 2013
The first week of the season is upon us, for the Football League anyway! Ive decided to start the season off with a nice little treble, but as we all know the first few weeks of the season are somewhat of a lottery as teams are still trying to find fitness and form after preseason. Just a quick write up due to time constraints!
MILLWALL v Yeovil
I fancy Millwall here. Home advantage will help against a newly promoted team, and the home side have also strengthened over the summer.
Port Vale v BRENTFORD
Despite achieving promotion last year, i feel Port Vale will not quite have enough to match up against one of League Ones stronger sides. Brentford will want to do better than last year and will hope to be beating times such as Port Vale.
SCUNTHORPE v Mansfield
Two teams new to the division, Scunthorpe will be looking for an immediate promotion whilst survival will suffice for Mansfield this season. Several new signings have boosted the Iron’s squad and the home side should make use of their fan’s backing.
Season Long 4-Fold: League Winners
In order to (hopefully) maintain an interest in the happenings at the top end of each the Premiership through to League Two, i have selected a season long bet of the 4 league winners, played each way.
For the Premier League, it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the Championship, i fancy all of the relegated sides to be strong this campaign, Wigan have added to their squad nicely, and QPR continue to reshape. I expect Bolton & Nottm Forest to be strong, whilst Watford will hope to go one better this season and achieve promotion to justify their investment. The Champions for me will be Reading. They weren’t good enough last season, but have retained the majority of their squad and know who to play and win in this league. They’ve added a Wayne Bridge to their squad, who i’m reliably informed is a left back who re-emerged as a decent footballer last season with Brighton. Fellow new signing Nick Blackman has joined from Sheffield United, and i think he will supplement Adam Le Fondre in the goalscoring burden this season.
League One and im plumping for Wolves to gain immediate promotion back to the Championship. Although successive relegations indicates otherwise, they have some quality players in their squad who i feel just got caught in a downward spiral last season. If some of these players such as Kevin Doyle can enjoy a fruitful and successful campaign then they may just reignite Wolves’ fortunes. Other contender i feel are Sheff Utd, Brentford and Peterborough.
And finally, League Two. Those who i feel will be in and around the top of the table include Portsmouth, Cheltenham, Scunthorpe and Northampton, but im opting for Chesterfield to top the lot and finish 1st. The three signings that have caught my eye are Gary Roberts who made 44 appearances for Swindon Town in League One last season, former Blackpool defender Ian Evatt, and midfielder Sam Morsey who made 32 appearances for Port Vale last season, scoring twice, to help them win promotion to League One.
27 / 04 / 2013
Wigan v TOTTENHAM
There’s a lot at stake for both of these sides with Wigan looking for 3 valuable points in their fight against relegation and Tottenham aiming to do the business and maintain their push for the 4th Champions League position. This leads to the game having the potential to be a tasty encounter and i expect their to be more than 1 goal to watch on MOTD this evening from this match.
For me, Tottenham should take home the points today. They have a decent enough away record of W9 D2 L5, and considering Wigan’s home record of W4 D4 L8, this should stand them in good stead. There is a home/away GD swing of 20 favouring Spurs, and with Wigan’s usual formation with 3 center backs with 2 wing back, i can see players such as Bale, who is clearly in the right mood at present after his display against Man City, it would not surprise me to see Spurs make the home side’s net bulge a couple of times today.
Barnsley v HULL
If Hull win they get promoted and leave Barnsley going into the last day of the season needing 3 points to just stand a chance of survival. Clearly both sides have a lot at stake in this game but i fancy Hull, especially after seeing Watford step up the pressure with their win of Leicester. Barnsley are winless in 5 now and have scored just 2 goals in this period. At home they have an average record of W8 D5 L9, whilst away from Hull boast a record of W11 D3 L8. There is a home/away GD swing of 5 which favours Hull, yet as both teams have conceded more than they have scored when looking at the relevant home/away statistics, i anticipate a low scoring game here. Perhaps a 1-0 away win.
Tranmere v BOURNEMOUTH
Tranmere have nothing to play for in this game after completely blowing any chance of promotion after going on an appalling run, losing 8 of their last 10. They probably just want this season to be over now, and i don’t really expect them to fancy the visit of already promoted Bournemouth who are looking to secure the title of ‘Champions’ by winning here. I’ve already mentioned Tranmere’s recent record and Bournemouth’s could not be any more different really, having won 8 on the bounce. There is a home/away GD swing of 11 in this game, and it wouldnt surprise me if there were O2.5 goals in this one.
NORTHAMPTON v Barnet
It is the home & away form of the sides which is making me include this game today. At home Northampton have a record of W16 D2 L4, whilst Barnet’s away form reads as W5 D3 L14. There is a home/away GD swing of 38 favouring Northampton. Although Barnet have a bigger incentive to win with them needing 3 points to secure survival, i feel they are just not quite good enough away from home. Their resilience is likely to be high however, so U2.5 goals for me.
ROTHERHAM v Aldershot
My final game see’s me fancy Rotherham take on Aldershot. A win for the home side will see them playing League One football next season whilst dooming Aldershot to non-league football. Rotherham have a home record of W13 D1 L8, whilst Aldershots away record reads as W4 D11 L7. There is a home/away GD swing of 21 favouring Rotherham, and i expect that to have grown come the end of the day. O2.5 goals for me.
Bet Summary
Tottenham / Hull / Bournemouth / Northampton / Rotherham – All to Win
** Played as Doubles, Trebles, Quad & 5-Fold (34/1)**
Wigan v Tottenham ~ Over 2.5 Goals
Barnsley v Hull ~ Under 2.5 Goals
Tranmere v Bournemouth ~ Over 2.5 Goals
Northampton v Barnet ~ Under 2.5 Goals
Rotherham v Aldershot ~ Over 2.5 Goals
** Played as Doubles, Trebles, Quad & 5-Fold (18/1)**
20 / 04 / 2013
Fulham v ARSENAL
With Arsenal pushing for a top 4 place they will expect to get 3points from this London derby. They face a Fulham side who played against Chelsea on Wednesday and at this stage of the season, with little to play for, their ageing squad may feel the effects on their legs. Arsenal’s away form is slightly better than Fulham’s home form going into this game, whilst recent league form also points towards a Gunner’s win.
NOTTM FOREST v Barnsley
After looking a shoe in for a play off spot after a revival under returning boss Billy Davies, Forest’s recent form has seen them teeter on the edge of throwing away a great chance to challenge for the play off crown. However, their solid home form should stand them in good stead against a Barnsley side who struggle on their travels. They still have a decent chance of survival but being winless in 4, whilst admittedly drawing 3 of these games, doesn’t really scream of great desire to me. Forest trounced Barnsley 1-4 already this season, and despite them losing their last 2 games, I expect them to be victorious in this fixture given that the 2 recent losses came against Cardiff & Middlesbrough sides with strong home records.
MK DONS v Scunthorpe
At the start of the season i tipped MK Dons for promotion, but by mid season I had accepted that wasn’t to be. Yet recent form has seen them mount a late charge for the play offs. They have taken 10points from 15 so far in April, recording home wins against strong Brentford & Swindon sides in the process. Defeat in this fixture will condemn Scunthorpe, and it looks like this will be the outcome as they have lost 3 of their last 4 games, winning just 2 of their last 10.
Portsmouth v SHEFF UTD
It looks as though Sheffield United will have to settle for a play off spot this season, but will want to build a good run of form prior to that challenge. They have been exceptional away from home this season with a record of W11 D7 L3, and will expect to build on this as they travel to the south coast to face a Portsmouth side who are already relegated. Despite Pompey have decent home form going into this game I just feel that the confirmation of relegation will take the wind from their sales as they face up to life in League Two next season.
WALSALL v Bury
I’ll be the first to admit i misjudged Walsall’s ability pre-season, and am surprised to find them with an outside shot at a play-off place this late in the season. What has been key to their lofty league position has been their knack of not losing games, with just 11 defeats this season. At home they have a record of W10 D7 L5, and I don’t see this record being tarnished at all when they face a Bury side who have been confirmed as relegated and have an away record of W3 D7 L12. Unbeaten in 14 league games, 6 at home, this game is Walsall’s for the taking.
GILLINGHAM v Wimbledon
Table topping Gillingham were on a 9 game unbeaten run prior to last weekend’s defeat away to Cheltenham. This result does not worry me too much due to Cheltenham being sublime at home (48/64 points), and with Wimbledon struggling of late after losing 3 and drawing 1 of their last 4, i can see the home side getting at least the single point they need to be confirmed as League Two champions this weekend, but expect them to take all 3.
KIDDERMINSTER v Stockport
This is a perfect opportunity for Kidderminster to stake a real claim for the title as main rivals Mansfield face a tricky match against Wrexham. Kidderminster will want to add real pressure prior to their rivals late kick off by turning over struggling Stockport. This should really be a straight forward home win when you take the recent form and home/away form of each side into account.
7-Fold – 37/1
Additional Games:
BOLTON v Middlesbrough
Bolton’s home form has seen them challenging for a play off spot with a record of W13 D5 L3, with them winning their last 7 home league games. On the other hand Middlesbrough’s away form is a big reason as to why they have slipped out of contention for a play of berth. They are winless in 11 away games in a row, losing 10 of these. Middlesbrough now have little to play for, a fate which is unlikely to give the side the battling spirit which they have so clearly lacked when away from home this season.
Hartlepool v BRENTFORD
Brentford will be hoping that either Doncaster or Bournemouth slip up as they look to secure 3 points which has the potential to lift them into an automatic promotion spot. In a similar situation to Portsmouth’s, Hartlepool have secured decent results of late after picking up wins against Bury and Tranmere, but after being confirmed as a League Two side for next season I question whether they will have the desire to beat one of the best sides in the league.
YEOVIL v Crewe
Yeovil Boss Gary Johnson was pretty pissed off at his sides loss to lowly Oldham, managed by his son Lee, in midweek, and will expect a good result against Crewe to provide his side with some momentum as they look ahead to the League One play offs. They have a good home record to build on which reads as W12 D4 L6, and face a Crewe side who have now lost 3 on the bounce since winning the Football League Trophy earlier in April. These 3 defeats have came against Brentford, Doncaster & Swindon, all of whom are in the play off zone or automatic promotion places. This level of team seems to have Crewe’s number and it would be no surprise if Crewe fell to 4 defeats from 4.
10-Fold – 197/1
29 / 03 / 2013
A Friday 5-Fold here, which i’m hoping will act as a warm up for tomorrows Saturday action. No write up, just the stats. Will be playing it as a Double Chance.
DERBY v Bristol City
Derby home form – W9 D7 L3, Scored 36 & Conceded 20
Bristol City away form – W3 D3 L13, Scored 17 & Conceded 30
Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Derby)
Derby recent form (5 Games) – L L D L W
Derby recent home form (5 Games) – W D D L W
Bristol City recent form (5 Games) – W D D W L
Bristol City recent away form (5 Games) – L L L D L
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Derby Wins = 2 Draws = 1 Bristol City Wins = 2
Colchester v BOURNEMOUTH
Colchester home form – W7 D3 L9, Scored 23 & Conceded 27
Bournemouth away form – W9 D4 L7, Scored 29 & Conceded 32
Home / Away GD Swing – 1 (Favours Bournemouth)
Colchester recent form (5 Games) – W D L D W
Colchester recent home form (5 Games) – L W L W L
Bournemouth recent form (5 Games) – L L W W W
Bournemouth recent away form (5 Games) – W L L W W
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Colchester Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Bournemouth Wins = 1
Coventry v DONCASTER
Coventry home form – W6 D6 L8, Scored 27 & Conceded 25
Doncaster away form – W13 D4 L3, Scored 33 & Conceded 19
Home / Away GD Swing – 12 (Favours Doncaster)
Coventry recent form (5 Games) – L W D W L
Coventry recent home form (5 Games) – L L L D W
Doncaster recent form (5 Games) – W L W D W
Doncaster recent away form (5 Games) – D W L W W
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Coventry Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Doncaster Wins = 1
SWINDON v Oldham
Swindon home form – W8 D8 L4, Scored 36 & Conceded 13
Oldham away form – W5 D3 L10, Scored 18 & Conceded 28
Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Swindon)
Swindon recent form (5 Games) – W D L W D
Swindon recent home form (5 Games) – D D L D D
Oldham recent form (5 Games) – W L L L W
Oldham recent away form (5 Games) – L L W L L
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Swindon Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Oldham Wins = 0
NORTHAMPTON v Torquay
Northampton home form – W15 D2 L3, Scored 38 & Conceded 14
Torquay away form – W3 D8 L9, Scored 15 & Conceded 20
Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Northampton)
Northampton recent form (5 Games) – W L W D W
Northampton recent home form (5 Games) – W W W W W
Torquay recent form (5 Games) – L D D W W
Torquay recent away form (5 Games) – L L D D D
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Northampton Wins = 0 Draws = 3 Torquay Wins = 2
Betting Summary
Double Chance (Win/Draw)
02 / 03 / 2013
MAN UTD v Norwich
This is a no brainer for me. United have a almost perfect home record of W12 D0 L1, with the defeat coming way back in September in a 2-3 defeat to Tottenham, whilst they have scored 34 goals and conceded just 15 at home. Norwich’s away record is poor, having W1 D1 L6, scoring 11 and conceding 26. This stats represent a home/away GD swing of 34 (favours United).
Recent form going into this game could not be much better for United, having won 4 on the bounce, 8 of the last 10, whilst being unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions. Norwich have picked up some valuable points over the last few weeks which has given them some breathing space from the relegation zone. Last week’s win over Everton will have boosted their confidence, but I still feel that away from home they will struggle. Despite managing to actually defeat United earlier in the season 1-0, last season United did the double and I fully expect them to pick up the 3 points on Saturday which will edge them ever closer to the title.
BRIGHTON v Huddersfield
The last couple of weeks have seen Brighton pick up 10/12 points against top half of the table teams, reinforcing their credentials for a play of spot. Furthermore, in this period they have beaten both Hull & Cardiff who themselves look shoe-ins for the play offs and automatic promotion respectively.
Going into this game Brighton will surely fancy themselves, having achieved a home record of W7 D7 L3, scored 23 and conceded 14. Their opponents, Huddersfield, have not lost in 2 games now as they look to move away from the relegation dogfight. Away from home their record is less than impressive having W5 D3 L9, scoring 16 and conceding 38. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 31 (favours Brighton).
Brighton have beaten their opponents already this season, and despite Huddersfield doing the double over Brighton last season, due to Huddersfield’s poor defensive away record, I can see Brighton snatching this one.
Oldham v SHEFF UTD
It took some thinking for me to opt for this game, primarily due to Oldham’s good form. However, despite Oldham winning 3 on the bounce, they face a Sheff Utd side who have gone 5 unbeaten, winning 4 before a midweek draw with Leyton Orient. Of the 3 games that Oldham have won recently, 2 of them were home games against MK Dons, who are now winless in 7, and a Portsmouth side in freefall. Sheff Utd meanwhile have 3 away games in succession recently, beating struggling Bury and Shrewsbury sides, but notable defeating a good quality Bournemouth side. Another point is that i believe Oldham’s recent revival of sorts owes partly to the positive vibe the FA Cup had provided the club, with much needed funds and excitement in what had otherwise been a doom and gloom season. Now that their FA Cup bubble has burst, it would not surprise me should they experience a slump.
The Sheffield side have a solid away record, having W9 D6 L2, scoring 21 and conceding 12. Oldham’s home record is below par having W5 D3 L8, scoring 17 and conceding 19. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 11 (favours Sheff Utd). I don’t envisage there being many goals in this one, but am backing Sheff Utd to edge it.
KIDDERMINSTER v Ebbsfleet
Its 2nd versus 23rd in this match up, with Kidderminster looking to keep pace with table toppers Wrexham. There appears to be a gulf in class in the Conference this season, with Kidderminster being one the sides who have been impressive both home & away. At home this season they have a record of W10 D3 L4, scoring 31 and conceding 14. They face an Ebbsfleet side who have faced difficulties on their travels this season, producing a record of W3 D2 L9, scoring just 18 and conceding 31. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 30 (favours Kidderminster).
Recent form points to the direction of Kidderminster in terms of winning this tie, with the home side winning 6 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10 games. Ebbsfleet’s recent form is less impressive, yet not too shabby. There recent 5 game record reads as LWDWL. Perhaps relevant to this game is the fact that they lost to Grimsby in midweek 3-1, this being a Grimsby side who are going toe-to-toe with Kidderminster this season. The distance that the Ebbsfleet side travelled in midweek, combined with another journey on Saturday may have a negative effect on the side.
Interestingly over the last 3 season, in which there have been 5 games, the sides have been inseparable, drawing all of the matches. Despite this I expect nothing less than a home win.
MANSFIELD v Telford
Mansfield face Telford in this encounter, and as we near the business end of the season I expect the promotion chases to secure 3 points against this Telford side who are rooted firmly to the bottom of the table. They should be full of confidence this weekend having won 4 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10. Their home record stands at W10 D3 L3, scoring 37 and scoring 15. Their opponents this weekend have struggled away from home, producing a record of miserable reading: W3 D7 L7, scoring 22 and conceding 25, culminating in a home/away GD swing of 22 (favours Mansfield). Their recent form is awful, losing 5 on the bounce and 7 of the last 10, as well as being winless in the last 17 games in all competitions. The last 3 games between the sides have ended with draws but again, I can see a home win here.
WREXHAM v Alfreton
Yet another top end side at home in the Conference here, and again im backing them to pick up the 3 points against a team who have been in a slow, yet gradual slide down the table since the beginning of December. At home Wrexham have a record to be proud of – W8 D5 L2, scoring 35 and conceding 18. Alfreton have actually got a fairly decent away record of W6 D5 L7, scoring 23 and conceding 29. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 23 (favours Wrexham). One worry I do have is that earlier in the season Alfreton beat Wrexham when away from home 2-4, but Nethertheless I would be surprised if Wrexham were unable to win this tie.
WOKING v Lincoln
Yet another Conference match I’m backing here, and once again another home team who I feel will benefit from the advantage that this brings. Woking still harbor hopes of clinching a play off spot, and despite being 12 points behind 6th place currently, they have been in fine form of late and it is their ambition that is also should see them through this game as victors. Their home form has being up there with the best in the league, having W10 D1 L5, scoring 32 and conceding 23. Woking go into the match on the back of two victories, first against a mid table Southport and then against play off contenders Forest Green. Beating Forest Green indicates that Woking have the quality to reach the play off zone, and should be capable of beating opponents such as Lincoln. This Lincoln side have won just once in their last ten games, and lost 3 of the last 4. They are out of form and are in real danger of relegation. Their away form reads as W3 D5 L7, scoring 20 and conceding 26. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 15 (favours Woking). Earlier in the season, Woking beat Lincoln 0-2 away from home, and I would expect a similar result here.
Betting Summary
Best Odds as of 01/03/2013 with BetVictor
16 / 02 / 2013
CRYSTAL PALACE v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have lost their last 5 away games, with their last away victory coming way back on the 8th December 2012! Crystal Palace go into this game on a 15 game unbeaten home run, losing their first game of the season to Watford all the way back on the 18th August 2012. Palace’s home form has been unbelievable this season, winning 9, drawing 5 & losing just 1, scoring 35 (avg 2.3) and conceding 17 goals (avg 1.1). Middlesbrough’s away form is the key reason as to why they are not in the automatic promotion places. They have played 15, won 5, draw 1, and lost 9. They have scored 18 goals (avg 1.2) and conceded 27 (avg 1.8).
Due to the close proximity of the sides in the league table, with Palace sitting in 5th whilst Middlesbrough are in 6th, there is value in this bet. For that reason, I may place Palace as a draw no bet, retaining value but offering more safety, especially considering their home form.
HULL v Charlton
Hull have a solid home record of W9 D2 L4, scoring 23 and conceding 15. They face a Charlton side who have been inconsistent away from home this season, with a record of W6 D4 L5, scoring 20 and conceding 19. The home/away GD swing is 9.
Hull go into the match having won their previous game against Derby 2-1, whilst Charlton will be looking build on a 1-1 draw against Birmingham. The only recent form to go by is the match between the two sides earlier in the season, although this ended 0-0.
The main reasons I am backing Hull are their home form, and the fact that it is beginning to get to that time of the season where those who are serious about promotion will be looking to get a good run going.
YEOVIL v Scunthorpe
Both Yeovil & Scunthorpe have been in decent form recently. Yeovil have won 5 on the bounce, & 8 of their last 10. Scunthorpe have won 3 in a row. As the home side this season, Yeovil have a record of W9 D2 L5, scoring 27 (avg 1.7) and conceding 17 (avg 1). Scunthorpe, when away from home, have a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 16 (avg 1) and conceding 24 (avg 1.5). In the head to head between the two sides, recent history as a whole indicates that Scunthorpe have the upper hand, yet in the reverse fixture this season, Yeovil ran out the winners by 4 unanswered goals. Yeovil have a striker who has found his scoring boots this season in Paddy Madden (16), whilst Scunthorpe have no major striking threat after the departure of Leon Clarke who remains their top scorer (11) despite leaving at the end of 2012, meaning Karl Hawley (7) is their top scorer at the club.
Odds of around 2.05 mean we could place Yeovil/Draw or draw no bet and still have relatively decent odds.
Preston v BOURNEMOUTH
Graham Westley was sacked as manager of Preston earlier in the week, leaving a squad which is very much his design to try and rescue what will inevitably be a disappointing season. Being leaderless will only hamper their chances of picking up points against a Bournemouth side who have fully bought into their manager, Eddie Howe. He has led them to the league summit, and his side have enough quality to maintain their promotion push.
At home this season Preston have a record of W3 D7 L6, scoring 20 and conceding 21. Bournemouth have an away record of W7 D4 L5, scoring 26 and conceding 27. Now evidently Bournemouth’s away record is one to spout superlatives about, but they have won their last 3 away games in a row, contributing to their 5 game winning run, whilst Preston are winless in their last 6 home matches.
The head to heads between the sides offers us 3 recent games to look at, and it indicates that Bournemouth have the upper hand with 2 wins & 1 draw.
CHELTENHAM v Aldershot
Cheltenham tackle Aldershot this weekend, going into the game in indifferent form. Over the last 5 games they have a record DWDLW. Fortunately for the home side their opponents have a record of DLDLL. Cheltenham’s home form is the reason they currently find themselves sitting in 3rd place in the league, having W9 D5 L2, scoring 25 and conceding 14. Aldershot are in fact better away from home, having W4 D4 L6, scoring 15 and conceding 22. Despite this, there is a notable 18 goal swing in the home/away GD. Over the last 3 seasons, the H2H record between the two sides is even, with both sides having won 3 games each. However, Cheltenham have already beaten Aldershot this season 1-0 when away from home, and last season won the home match 2-0.
Again, due to the availability of odds of around 1.95 we could place Cheltenham/Draw or draw no bet and still have odds which add value to the betting slip.
PORT VALE v Morecambe
Both sides are in decent form in this one, with Port Vale having a 5 game record of WDWWD, whilst Morecambe have a record of DWWLW. The home/away record offers some indication of how this game could go, with Port Vale having a home record of W8 D4 L3, scoring 36 & conceding 15, whilst Morecambe having an away record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 21 & conceding 22. There is a 22 goals swing in the home/away GD comparison.
In their last 3 home games Port Vale have scored 10 goals and conceded 0. In Morecambe’s last 3 away games they have scored 7 and conceded 4. I feel Port Vale will be too strong for their opponents here, using the home crowd to their advantage.
Bet Summary:
Bet 1: – Teams to Win (Best with BetVictor)
Bet 2: – Draw No Bets (Best with William Hill)
Alternative Bets:
Good Luck Everybody!!!
29 / 12 / 2012
STOKE v Southampton
After a good run of form, Stoke have gradually climbed the table and have moved up to eighth in the Premier League. Aware that they face tough matches against Manchester City, Chelsea, and Swansea after the visit of Southampton, a win on Saturday will be crucial to maintain their decent position in the league. The fact that Southampton have one of the poorer defenses in the League this season will boost Stoke’s chances, and while Stoke are by no means prolific in front of goal, Tony Pulis’ players should be confident they can break open the visitors’ back four on Saturday. The man to do this for me is John Walters. This guy has found some form of late, having most recently scored a double in Stoke’s 3-1 win over Liverpool – the second of which would have been overly admired had it come from the boot of a more stylish, marketable player. If Walters can again combine with Kenwyne Jones effectively, Southampton will struggle.
The home side are unbeaten in nine Premier League matches and 16 consecutive games at the Britannia Stadium. This impressive record stems from their defensive qualities – The Potters have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League (14) and still hold the record for the highest amount of clean sheets in the division (9). Their opponents meanwhile have won just once away from home this season. Six defeats and one draw in their other seven attempts mean the Saints have taken only four points from a possible 32 on their travels. It can take something special to unlock Stoke, and whilst Southampton have the talents of Gaston Ramirez, Adam Lallana will again be a big miss.
Admittedly The Saints’ performances have improved recently, but an in-form Stoke side, who are notoriously hard to beat, offer a great bet in my eyes.
CARDIFF v Millwall
This game has caused me some headaches in decided to go with it. I was tempted to back P’Boro after their run of victories against struggling Bristol..but I truly believe that P’Boro will get relegated as they are a poor, poor side, and so I just can’t trust them. Milwall have had a decent season so far, and a side not to be underestimated. Recently though, they have hit a bit of an inconsistent patch. They have just one win in their last five games, scoring 4 and conceding 7 in this run.
Cardiff, despite an appalling, piss-taking defeat at the hand of P’Boro, have been superior in their consistency this season. A record of W7 D1 L2 in their last 10 league games speaks for itself and it is no surprise they sit at the top of the table. In all honesty, given the squad that they have assembled, this is widely expected, but what is good to see is that the players seem to be thriving on the competition for places and expectation that they exit this league via to top end.
After scoring 9 goals, and conceding 4 in their last 5 games, I can see Cardiff bagging more than one goal in this match. They should be confident after beating a decent Crystal Palace side last time out, and against a Millwall side that they have not lost to in the last 6 meetings (3 season period), they should come out triumphant in this one.
SHEFF UTD v Hartlepool
This is an easy selection really. Sheffield United have been remarkably consistent this season, losing just twice. Yet both those losses came away from home, and this weekend they play host, and hope to maintain their unbeaten home record of 6 wins and 6 draws. Their home GD reads at +11 due to scoring 21 and conceding 10 goals. The usual 5 game recent form period can be applied here, with Sheff Utd recording LWDWW and Hartlepool having LDLLL, yet even the 5 games before this period offers similar reading. It’s a simple case of a good team against a poor team, and inform team against struggling side, big versus small, top versus bottom, goal hungry versus goal shy, confident versus self-doubting. Home victory.
CHELTENHAM v Bristol Rovers
The home side have the opportunity to move into joint top spot if they manage to achieve a win against Bristol Rovers this weekend in what is a local derby. The top end of the League 2 table is tight, so Cheltenham will be looking to bag the 3 points here in what is a game they really should expect to win. They have the opportunity to really take it to Bristol and should aim to score at least 2 realistically. Having scored 21 goals at home, this should be more than just a possibility what with their opponents having conceded 26 away from home already. Cheltenham have been in fairly decent form recently with wins against Barnet, Northampton and Wycombe, the latter provided relief that they had not began to falter after being thrashed by Rochdale pre-xmas.
As the home side, Cheltenham have been solid, W8 D2 L2, being unbeaten in their last 9 home games, achieving 6 clean sheet in this run. They have a variety of goalscorers in the squad, and in Billy Jones they have a player who has been creating chances and gaining assists with ease. It is primarily the Home/Away records that make me so confident in this game. As strong as Cheltenham are at home, Bristol are as weak away from home, displaying a record of W1 D4 L7, with a -13 GD. Ouch! They have conceded in each of the last 15 away games they have played. Against Cheltenham this seem like asking to be punished, and I duly expect them to be.
Summary
Backing these 4 home sides will only get you odds of around 8/1.
To make it more interesting you could have Cheltenham & Sheff Utd at -1, which boosts the odds to around 18/1.
A draw no bet for the 4 fold produces odds of around 2.5/1 so not great…but a safer option none the less.
Alternative 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee)
Arsenal
Middlesbrough
Tranmere
Rotherham
Value 4 Fold (To Win – Yankee / Draw No Bet – Yankee)
West Ham
Birmingham City
Doncaster Rovers
Wycombe Wanderers
The Soccer Surgeon 
