01 / 03 / 2014
Fulham v CHELSEA
Chelsea’s away form is far superior to Fulham’s home form, and the strength and athleticism with the Chelsea squad should prove to much to handle for Felix Magaths side. If Fulham get anything from this tie it will be a shock, and with games against the Big sides less important than picking up points against the relegation rivals, i cant see Fulham taking anything here.
LEICESTER v Charlton
Despite Charltons away form improving of late courtesy of 3 wins in the FA Cup, they remain winless away in the league since late November. Unfortunately they face a Leicester side who are rampant at home and having lost just once on their own turf this season i can see a straight forward win for the Foxes.
Carlisle v BRENTFORD
On the whole Carlisle have an okay home record, but struggle to find any real consistency with a 7 game snapshot of their home record reading as LWLWLWL. With Brentford going unbeaten in the league away from home since mid October, they should be able to capatilise on their opponents inability to consistently perform.
ROTHERHAM v Notts County
Notts County are absolutely awful on their travels so to come up against a Rotherham side who have lost just 3 home league games this season will undoubtedly be a daunting task. Both sides have something play for at this stage of the season, albeit at different ends, but i can only see the sides being further apart at the end of 90mins in this one.
WOLVES v Port Vale
With Wolves winning 5 and drawing 1 of their last 6 home games, they could want nothing more than to play host to a Port Vale side who have drew 1 and lost 5 of their last 6 away games. Conceding just twice in this period should stand Wolves in good stead as Port Vale have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away matches.
Newport v SCUNTHORPE (DNB)
It is Newport’s home form which has been the strong point this season, but as this has tailed of recently with them losing 3 of their last 4, i fancy Scunthorpe to be too strong for the Welsh side. Scunny, having remained unbeaten away from home since November last year, will be confident heading into the tie. Despite this, they have odds available which means i will take the DNB.
BARNET v Woking
It is the sides recent form that i like the look of, aswell as the odds available for a Barnet win. Barnet have won their last 5 games, 3 of which were at home, whereas Woking have been inconsistent and having lost 3 away games in February i feel that home advantage will be a key factor in the tie.
BRAINTREE v Hyde
Braintree have been in decent home form recently winning 4 of their last 5 (including a cup win against an in form Welling side). There can be no denying that Hyde have dramatically improved recently, but ill back the facts and stats which show Hyde are poor. A home win for me.
8 Fold @ 42/1
#2 – The Soccer Surgeon Says…
An interesting, yet non too indepth article in the Guardian this week regarding a legal challenge from several Championship clubs and a lone side from League One.
According the the article, ‘sources have said the clubs objecting include Leicester City (whose most recent accounts, for 2011-12, show the club lost £30m), Queens Park Rangers (who lost £23m in 2012) and Blackburn Rovers (who lost £37m in 2013). The League One club which Brabners (the Law firm representing the clubs) says it represents is believed to be Wolverhampton Wanderers. Their most recent accounts, for the 2011-12 season when they were in the Premier League, show a £2m profit but they have since suffered consecutive relegations’.
Well it’s hardly surprising those clubs named are the ones who a throwing a hissy fit about being told that they can now only spend what they earn when they have such considerable losses, combined with the chances of them turning a profit any time soon seem slim at best. QPR, despite a squad littered with international players, have dropped off the Automatic promotion pace somewhat recently after picking up just 1 point from 4 games. With the riches on offer through a return to the top flight looking like they may be slipping away, could this be one reason why QPR feel the need to ruffle a few FFP feathers? I feel that they may be pre-empting a financial meltdown…Just because you have Premier League players does not mean you will go straight back up; the Championship requires a different style. This a fact of life that both Blackburn & Wolves have also had to deal with in recent years. Wolves suffered the devastating feat of successive relegations and find themselves now competing in League One, but what this unfortunate period will do to the club is not yet clear as they will have had to deal with the financial side of their double relegation, and even with the parachute payments they will receive i am unsure if they could piece together a strong enough squad to return to the top flight. Blackburn haven’t quite struggled as much and are in with a shout of a play-off spot this season, but the effect of relegation is worryingly clear when you look at the Lancashire club’s accounts for the year ending June 30 2013 covering the 2012-13 season (1st season in the Championship), which reveal:
- Rovers posted a pre-tax loss of £36.5m.
- Net debt has shot up from £24.5m to £54.5m – £36.1m of which is owed to Venky’s;
- Turnover was down £27.3m from £54.2m to £26.9m after a drop of £23.2m in TV money;
- Wages were down from £50m to £36m. However the wage-to-turnover ratio rose from 92.2 per cent to 136.1 per cent;
- The club lost £1.1m in ticket sales and £3m in commercial income as average attendance fell 33.5 per cent from 22,551 to 14,997.
When their parachute payments cease in a couple of seasons time i worry for Rover’s; and if i worry for clubs like Blackburn who i have no affiliation with, along with other Football League sides who find themselves in difficulty, then i expect, or at least hope, that the owners are sufficiently worried too. We can only assume that this is the case as indicated by their objection to FFP, which is quite clearly a desperate attempt to avoid the sanctions they will inevitable face when they fail to meet FFP targets. What hope can they have when they have a wage-to-turnover ratio of 136.1 per cent. I think all clubs, especially those who are objecting to sustainable progress, should take heed of Blackburn’s club motto “Arte et Labore” when considering their sporting progression and financial management, as it translates to “By Skill and Hard Work”, not to “By Overspending & Hoping for the Best”.
22 / 02 / 2014
ARSENAL v Sunderland
Despite having to contest with Bayern Munich in midweek, the silver lining of that match is that the Germans will have kept Arsenal playing at a high intensity and focus, whilst not having to deal with any travel will have helped the Gunners deal with recovery. Arsene Wenger’s side have a home record at the Emirates this season of W9 D3 L1, scoring 22 and conceding 6, achieving 9 clean sheets. Their opponents Sunderland make the long trip south in decent form, and have an away record that reads as W3 D4 L5, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Despite being unbeaten in their last 6 away games (W3 D3), they haven’t faced a top 4 level side away from home this season, and i feel that facing an Arsenal side in good form could be too big an ask for Gus Poyet’s Black Cats. Having never recorded a win over Arsenal on their travels, the history favours the Gunners, who i quite fancy to win to nil.
MAN CITY v Stoke
This tie really should be one way traffic with City boasting a home record of W11 D0 L1, scoring 40 and conceding 9, they welcome Mark Hughes’ Stoke side who have an away record of W1 D3 L9, having scored 10 and conceding 27. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 48 favouring the home side. Stoke struggle to put their stamp on away games and allow the home side to dictate play too much, and against City this is a recipe for disaster. The gulf in quality is clear and should shine through, resulting in a comfortable home win. After a disheartening defeat against Barcelona in midweek, you would expect City to want to return to form in the league and Stoke could be the unfortunate ones who suffer.
DERBY v Bournemouth
Steve McLaren’s Derby side are really pushing for an automatic promotion spot and have hit form at a crucial time of the season. They have a home record of W8 D3 L4, scoring 28 and conceding 20. They have lost just once in their last 11 home games, winning 8 of these ties, so it is clear that they got their losses out of their system early on in the season. They face a Bournemouth side who sit in 15th position and have an away record of W3 D5 L6, scoring 17 and conceding 31. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 22 favouring Derby. Bournemouth will be heartened by their recent results after picking up a point at Burnley and losing narrowly to Leicester. However, both of these results were when they were at home and i feel Derby will take full advantage of being at home and display their quality this weekend.
LEICESTER v Ipswich
Championship leaders Leicester host play-off chasing Ipswich this weekend, with the Foxes hoping to take the opportunity to at least maintain their lead at the tables summit. Nigel Pearson’s side have a home record of W11 D3 L1, scoring 31 and conceding 15. Mick McCarthy’s Tractor Boys have an away record of W3 D8 L4, scoring 19 and conceding 19. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 16 favouring Ipswich. Ipswich have scored a maximum of 1 goal in almost 75% of their away games this season, a stat which I feel will be crucial against a Leicester side who have scored 2 or more in 75% of their home games. With the away side obviously struggling to convert draws into wins, you would have to admit that Leicester hold the advantage and should have enough to edge past Ipswich.
SCUNTHORPE v Portsmouth
2nd place Scunthorpe host 17th Portsmouth this weekend, and a win will ensure they remain in the automatic promotion places. They have a home record of W7 D5 L2, scoring 17 and conceding 10. Portsmouth have an away that reads as W2 D9 L4, scoring 18 and conceding 25. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 14 favouring Scunthorpe. Scunthorpe have manage to record 8 home clean sheets in the league this season, and with Pompey scoring 1 or less in 9 of their away league games, i feel Scunny could just edge this one.
Wycombe v CHESTERFIELD
My pre-season tip for Chesterfield to win League Two maintains positive momentum as Chesterfield continue their fine league form. They head into this away trip to 22nd placed Wycombe with an away record of W7 D4 L3, scoring 23 and conceding 15. Their opponents have won just twice since the end of October 2013, and welcome Chesterfield to Adams Park with a home record of W3 D5 L8, scoring 13 and conceding 20. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 favouring title chasing Chesterfield. Wycombe have failed to score in 7 (44%) home games this season, and scored just a solitary goal in 8 (50%). These stats are not pleasant readinord of g when you consider that Chesterfield have scored 2 or more in 9 (64%) of their away games.
6 Fold @ 18/1
#1 – The Soccer Surgeon Says…
After months of blogging tips, relatively successfully with lots of close calls, a fair amount of decent wins, and the odd large bookie bash, i am now going to write short viewpoints on topics from the football world.
Two headlines to comment on here from the Daily Mail Online:
Liverpool are out of the FA Cup because ‘weak’ Webb refused to award clear penalty / Suarez’s reputation for theatrics is denying Liverpool obvious penalties
The author of the first article is former top referee Graham Poll, who outlines how Howard Webb will be remembered for the decision not to award what looked like a blatantly obvious penalty to Liverpool for an Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain foul on Luis Suarez, as opposed to what he believes was an otherwise strong performance from Englands ‘top’ referee, and that he perhaps opted not to award Liverpool a 2nd penalty due to this first one, which was given, being, well, soft at best. Well, Graham, i’d have to disagree with you. Just because the referee feels as though one decision that he awards was light or soft, shouldn’t influence in any way any other decision that he should have to make. If it was the case that the first decision, for which a penalty was awarded for Lukas Podolski’s soft touch on, as expected, Luis Suarez, was tough to call and had the potential to influence future decisions, then don’t give it Howard, or at least have the balls to back yourself and preserve the integrity of the game for the whole 90+ minutes instead of trying to determine some personal level of equilibrium in your decision making. It doesn’t matter if a tackle is as soft as a neatly folded square of Andrex Gorgeous Comfort Quilt, make a decison and move on. From that point forwards you give decisions based on the action & evidence you have before you. Stop living in the past maaaan!
Suarez doesn’t help himself when appealing for decisions due to his deep need to do an impression of a pain stricken salmon each and every time he feels contact. If he simply went down naturally, refs would not feel as though he was trying to con them through exaggeration, thus he may stand more of a chance of getting the decision he so craves. On this occasion, i feel that had a different referee had been selected to officiate, it would have been a penalty.
*If anyone hasn’t seen the incident, here it is…
After watching that, did anyone else have a flashback to Stone Cold Steve Austin in his hey day? Did Suarez get Stone Cold Stunnered??
For Graham Poll to even suggest that Howard Webb had an otherwise decent game is a confusing statement in itself considering that at every opportunity he gave into Steven Gerrard’s desires. It was this infatuation which must explain how he bottled booking Raheem Sterling for his petulance & gob-shitedness, which culminated in the little brat placing a hand of disgust/molestation on England’s top referee.
At first i thought “Oh Shit Raheem, you’ve really done it now. Howard’s gon’ get all Ross Kemp on your ass”, but no. One look into the Liverpool captain’s piercing eyes had our Howard weak at the knees and card shy. What chance has the FA got of improving the image of players and achieving success in their ‘Respect’ campaigns if England’s #1 Ref doesn’t possess the Cahoonies to stand up to a 5′ 7″ 19 year old.
For all of Webbs strengths, over the last season or so he seems to have had an internal explosion of self importance. In 2010, he became the first person to referee the finals of both the UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cup in the same year, and i feel this honour has gone to his head. He appears to form, and follow, personal opinions of players i.e his man crush for Gerrard, and his apparent distaste for Suarez. Earlier in the season he failed to provide any protection to Suarez when Chelsea’s Samuel Eto’o committed a cynical foul against the Uruguayan For me, there are just two available routes to go down in order to solve this; either Webb takes a step back, looks at himself and decides to knuckle down and be the best referee, or Steven Gerrard cashes in some Tesco Clubcard vouchers and takes Howard to Bella Italia before asking him to be nicer to his friend Luis.
Links to articles:
18 / 02 / 2014 – Man City v Barcelona *Free Money*
Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort.
Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!
Route 1:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on Man City Double Chance – ‘Man City/Draw’ currently @1.55, returning £77.50
Then place £50 on Barcelona in play during the game currently @ 2.40 this returns £120
This means that if the game ends as a draw or Man City win, you will make £27.50 profit.
However if Barcelona win, you will make £20 profit.
Route 2:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Man City/Barcelona @ 1.30, this returns £65
Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @3.60, returning £180
This means if Man City or Barcelona win, you will make £15 profit.
However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £80 profit.
Route 3:
Place your £50 bet before kick off on Barcelona Double Chance – ‘Draw/Barcelona’ currently @1.40, returning £70
Then place £50 on Man City in play during the game currently @ 3.00 this returns £150
This means that if the game ends as a draw or Barcelona win, you will make £20 profit.
However if Man City win, you will make £50 profit.
15 / 02 / 2014
IPSWICH v Blackpool
COVENTRY v Bradford
ROTHERHAM v Stevenage
WOLVES v Notts County
CHESTERFIELD v Torquay
GATESHEAD v Woking
NUNEATON v Hyde
7 Fold @ 31/1
08 / 02 / 2014
Norwich v MAN CITY
With just 1 win since mid December, Norwich will have a real job on their hands to contain a Man City side sure to be ready to fire on all cylinders after losing to title rivals Chelsea. The Canaries have a home record of W4 D4 L4, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Visitors Man City travel to Carrow Road with an away record of W6 D2 L4, scoring 26 and conceding 18. Their record isn’t outstanding but when you consider they have dropped just 2 points since the start of December, they are playing well away from home. The stats give us a home/away GD swing of 8 favouring Man City, and i just have a feeling that Norwich could be on for a hiding this weekend.
CHELSEA v Newcastle
Jose Mourinho got his tactics spot on in their win over Man City on Monday, and I expect him to be fully aware of Newcastle’s weaknesses when they meet on Saturday. Newcastle failed to score against Arsenal and Man City this season so clearly struggle to get on the scoresheet against top sides, and in fact have really struggled to find the net at all recently after posting a blank in 4 of their last 7 games, finding the net just 3 times in this run. The loss of Cabaye to PSG in the January transfer window considerably weakens Newcastle’s creative ability, whilst Loic Remy being suspended means that they have no cutting edge infront of goal. Chelsea have an excellent home record to build on of W10 D2 L0, scoring 25 and conceding just 9. They welcome Newcastle to Stamford Bridge with the Magpies looking to improve on an inconsistent away record that currently reads as W6 D1 L5, scoring 15 and conceding 16. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 17 favouring the Blues. It should be a case of if Chelsea perform they win in this match.
BURNLEY v Millwall
3 consecutive draws may have seen Burnley drop out of the automatic promotion places in the league, but their 3-3 draw at QPR last weekend will have shown them that they can match the better sides in this league and should be confident against the weaker ones. They currently have a home record of W8 D6 L0, scoring 22 and conceding 8. Their opponents are currently hovering about the drop zone in 21st positions with an away record of W1 D4 L8, scoring 10 and conceding 30. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 34 favouring Burnley. With Millwalls defensive frailties facing up against Burnley’s freescoring forwards of Ings & Vokes, this should be comfortable for the home side.
LEICESTER v Watford
The Foxes are flying at the moment and are sitting pretty at the top of the table with a comfortable lead over 2nd place. They face a Watford side who stuck in mid table courtesy of their indifferent form. Leicester have a home record to be envied, posting a record of W11 D2 L1, scoring 29 and conceding 13. Their opponents The Hornets have an away record this season of W3 D8 L3, scoring 21 and conceding 19. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 14 favouring Leicester. With Watford’s apparent inability to convert draws to wins, and Leicester’s ruthlessness, I can see Watford offering some resistance but Leicester eventually securing the win.
BRENTFORD v Crawley
Brentford lead League One after 29 games and welcome Crawley to Griffin Park this Saturday looking for their 11th straight home victory. Brentford have a home record of W12 D1 L2, scoring 30 and conceding 12. The visitors Crawley have an away record heading into this game of W2 D7 L4, scoring 16 and conceding 18. These statistics provide a home/away GD swing of 20 favouring Brentford, and considering that they have won the last 4 matches against Crawley I expect them to continue this run of victories this weekend.
GRIMSBY v Southport
A win in this fixture would see Grimsby maintain their grip on a play off place, and with them facing a side who have lost 3 on the bounce and sit in the relegation zone, a home win should be the aim. Grimsby have a home record in the league of W7 D4 L3, scoring 28 and conceding 18. Southport have an away record of W1 D2 L12, scoring 10 and conceding 31. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 31 favouring Grimsby.
WREXHAM v Dartford
Wrexham sit in mid-table in the Conference but this is not down to their home form which reads as W8 D3 L3, scoring 23 and conceding 15. They play host to a Dartford side who are occupying 23rd position in the league table and have an away record of W2 D3 L11, scoring 11 and conceding 30. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 27 favouring Wrexham. It has got to the point in the season now for Wrexham to either kick on a fight for a play of place or just allow their season to peter out, and a win today will see them maintain their good recent form a show their rivals that they mean business as they head into the crunch time of the season.
7 FOLD ODDS @ 17/1
If you like the look of the 7 fold and wanna go big, ive stuck a small stake on the additional games too…
Blackpool v NOTTM FOREST
Blackpool have been in poor form for some time now, picking up just 2 points from 12 games, and Nottingham Forest will really fancy taking something from this tie. Blackpool head into the game in 16th position with an average home record of W5 D5 L4, scoring 14 and conceding 14. They started of the season in decent form, recording 3 home wins in a row, which just adds further weight to the fact that they are struggling to perform in recent times. Forest find themselves competing for a play-off place and are now in 5th position. They have an away record W4 D7 L2, scoring 17 and conceding 14. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 3 favouring Forest. I can see Forest edging this one.
BRIGHTON v Doncaster
9th place Brighton host 19th place Doncaster this weekend, with The Seagulls looking to kickstart their push for a play off place. They have a home record of W5 D5 L3, scoring 19 and conceding 13. They play good football and are a difficult side to beat, as indicated through their results this season, but it is a slight worry that only of 4 occasions have they scored more than 1 goal in a home game, although 3 of these occasions resulted in wins against Leicester (1st), Blackburn (8th) and Burnley (3rd), displaying the quality they do possess. Doncaster travel south with an away record of W1 D5 L8, scoring 9 and conceding 26. Doncaster have conceded 2 or more goals away from home on 8 occasions this season so Brighton might have a chance of enjoying some goals this weekend. The stats available give us a home/away GD swing of 23 favouring Brighton.
Mansfield v SOUTHEND (DNB)
Mansfield host Southend this Saturday looking to improve on a poor home record that reads as W2 D5 L6, scoring 16 and conceding 20. Southend travel to the East Midlands with an away record of W6 D4 L4, scoring 16 and conceding 14. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 6 favouring Southend. This could be a close game which is why I am going to back Southend on the Draw No Bet.
SOUTHAMPTON v Stoke
The Saints put Fulham away with ease last weekend, with their 3 England players Lallana, Rodriguez and Lambert all finding the net. This result should raise their confidence and expectations of getting a result against a Stoke side who are poor on their travels. Southampton have a home record of W5 D4 L3, in which they have scored 19 and conceded 14. They have faced Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea & Arsenal at St. Marys this season, with only Chelsea convincingly beating them as the Saints picked up draws against City and Arsenal and running Tottenham close in a 2-3 defeat. Stoke travel south with an away record of W1 D2 L9, scoring just 8 goals and conceding 25. They have scored just 1 goal in their last 6 Premier League away games. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 22 favouring Southampton. I think that Southampton’s slick football could expose openings in Stoke’s defensive set up, whilst the home sides fairly solid defence should have enough to keep out a lacklustre attacking threat.
SUNDERLAND (DNB) v Hull
Sunderland are really beginning to turn their season around under Gus Poyet, and after a major injection of confidence after their 3-0 demolition of rivals Newcastle last weekend they will be looking to achieve another positive result this weekend, and in turn leapfrog their opponents in the battle for Premier League survival. At the Stadium of Light Sunderland have a home record of W3 D2 L7, scoring 13 and conceding 19 which isn’t impressive at all, yet if we look at their recent record in all competitions, they have recorded 4 wins and a draw. Steve Bruce’s Hull side have an away record W1 D2 L9, scoring 7 and conceding 22. These League stats give us a home/away GD swing of 9 favouring Sunderland despite their record. Hull have suffered away losses against the likes of Chelsea, Man City, Everton, Tottenham, Southampton, Arsenal & Liverpool this season, all of whom are doing well, yet their recent losses away at Norwich & Crystal Palace suggest that they will struggle on their travels against a side of Sunderland’s quality too. Despite this, i feel that Hull, should they click and play well whilst finding Sunderland on an off day have the ability to cause trouble so i will back Sunderland on the Draw No Bet.
Wycombe v ACCRINGTON (Double Chance)
Accrington should be quite fresh heading into this trip to Wycombe after their game with Morecambe was rained, whereas Wycombe suffered a loss to Bury which would have been sapping both in terms of energy and confidence. Wycombe have a home record of W3 D4 L8, scoring 12 and conceding 19. Visitors Accrington have an away record of W6 D2 L6, scoring 14 and conceding 19. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 2 favouring Accrington, but it is in recent form where i feel Accrington have the advantage. With Wycombe losing 4 and achieving 2 draws from their last 6 games (both home and away), they face an Accrington side who have lost just once in their last 6 fixtures, drawing 3 and winning their last 2 games. It is clear which side will have the confidence and I expect this to show. The odds on offer mean we can take Accrington on the Double Chance and still get value.
13 FOLD ODDS @ 259/1
Place with a bookie that offers Cash Out and claim some profit ASAP (hopefully)
The Soccer Surgeon 