30 / 04 / 2013 – Champions League Special

Once again Bet365 are willingly letting us line our pockets with their cash, all for just a little bit of effort.

Bet365 are offering a deal where if you place a pre-match bet then they will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake during the big match. It is only “free” as you get the in-play stake refunded if it loses….you still have to stump up the amount from your account. There is a maximum bet amount of £50.00 so to maximize this offer you will need £100 to stake. Just to be clear, if your pre match bet wins, thus meaning your in-play loses, then the £50 refund can be withdrawn immediately with no need to bet it as with other other bookies offers. This is what makes this offer fantastic! Happy days!

Recommendation:

Route 1:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on Real Madrid @ 1.55, this returns £77.50

Then place £50 on Dortmund Double Chance – ‘Draw/Dortmund’  in play during the game, currently @2.50, returning £125

This means if Madrid win you will make £27.50 profit.

However if the game ends as a draw or Dortmund win, you will make £25 profit.

Route 2:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.33, this returns £66.50

Then place £50 on Under 2.5 Goals in play during the game, currently @3.40, returning £170

This means if there are Over 2.5 Goals you will make £16.50 profit.

However if the game ends with Under 2.5 Goals, you will make £70 profit.

Route 3:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Real Madrid/Draw @ 1.16, this returns £58

Then place £50 on Dortmund in play during the game, currently @5.50, returning £275

This means if Madrid win or draw, you will make £8 profit.

However if Dortmund win, you will make £175 profit.

Route 4:

Place your £50 bet before kick off on ‘double chance’ of Real Madrid/Dortmund @ 1.18, this returns £59

Then place £50 on Draw in play during the game, currently @5.00, returning £250

This means if Madrid or Dortmund win, you will make £9 profit.

However if the game ends as a draw, you will make £150 profit.

I going for the big money and will be backing Dortmund to win In Play.

27 / 04 / 2013

Wigan v TOTTENHAM

There’s a lot at stake for both of these sides with Wigan looking for 3 valuable points in their fight against relegation and Tottenham aiming to do the business and maintain their push for the 4th Champions League position. This leads to the game having the potential to be a tasty encounter and i expect their to be more than 1 goal to watch on MOTD this evening from this match.

For me, Tottenham should take home the points today. They have a decent enough away record of W9 D2 L5, and considering Wigan’s home record of W4 D4 L8, this should stand them in good stead. There is a home/away GD swing of 20 favouring Spurs, and with Wigan’s usual formation with 3 center backs with 2 wing back, i can see players such as Bale, who is clearly in the right mood at present after his display against Man City, it would not surprise me to see Spurs make the home side’s net bulge a couple of times today.

Barnsley v HULL

If Hull win they get promoted and leave Barnsley going into the last day of the season needing 3 points to just stand a chance of survival. Clearly both sides have a lot at stake in this game but i fancy Hull, especially after seeing Watford step up the pressure with their win of Leicester. Barnsley are winless in 5 now and have scored just 2 goals in this period. At home they have an average record of W8 D5 L9, whilst away from Hull boast a record of W11 D3 L8. There is a home/away GD swing of 5 which favours Hull, yet as both teams have conceded more than they have scored when looking at the relevant home/away statistics, i anticipate a low scoring game here. Perhaps a 1-0 away win.

Tranmere v BOURNEMOUTH

Tranmere have nothing to play for in this game after completely blowing any chance of promotion after going on an appalling run, losing 8 of their last 10. They probably just want this season to be over now, and i don’t really expect them to fancy the visit of already promoted Bournemouth who are looking to secure the title of ‘Champions’ by winning here. I’ve already mentioned Tranmere’s recent record and Bournemouth’s could not be any more different really, having won 8 on the bounce. There is a home/away GD swing of 11 in this game, and it wouldnt surprise me if there were O2.5 goals in this one.

NORTHAMPTON v Barnet

It is the home & away form of the sides which is making me include this game today. At home Northampton have a record of W16 D2 L4, whilst Barnet’s away form reads as W5 D3 L14. There is a home/away GD swing of 38 favouring Northampton. Although Barnet have a bigger incentive to win with them needing 3 points to secure survival, i feel they are just not quite good enough away from home. Their resilience is likely to be high however, so U2.5 goals for me.

ROTHERHAM v Aldershot

My final game see’s me fancy Rotherham take on Aldershot. A win for the home side will see them playing League One football next season whilst dooming Aldershot to non-league football. Rotherham have a home record of W13 D1 L8, whilst Aldershots away record reads as W4 D11 L7. There is a home/away GD swing of 21 favouring Rotherham, and i expect that to have grown come the end of the day. O2.5 goals for me.

Bet Summary

Tottenham  /  Hull  /  Bournemouth  /  Northampton  /  Rotherham  –  All to Win

** Played as Doubles, Trebles, Quad & 5-Fold (34/1)**

Wigan v Tottenham ~ Over 2.5 Goals

Barnsley v Hull ~ Under 2.5 Goals

Tranmere v Bournemouth ~ Over 2.5 Goals

Northampton v Barnet ~ Under 2.5 Goals

Rotherham v Aldershot ~ Over 2.5 Goals

** Played as Doubles, Trebles, Quad & 5-Fold (18/1)**

20 / 04 / 2013

Fulham v ARSENAL

With Arsenal pushing for a top 4 place they will expect to get 3points from this London derby. They face a Fulham side who played against Chelsea on Wednesday and at this stage of the season, with little to play for, their ageing squad may feel the effects on their legs. Arsenal’s away form is slightly better than Fulham’s home form going into this game, whilst recent league form also points towards a Gunner’s win.

NOTTM FOREST v Barnsley

After looking a shoe in for a play off spot after a revival under returning boss Billy Davies, Forest’s recent form has seen them teeter on the edge of throwing away a great chance to challenge for the play off crown. However, their solid home form should stand them in good stead against a Barnsley side who struggle on their travels. They still have a decent chance of survival but being winless in 4, whilst admittedly drawing 3 of these games, doesn’t really scream of great desire to me. Forest trounced Barnsley 1-4 already this season, and despite them losing their last 2 games, I expect them to be victorious in this fixture given that the 2 recent losses came against Cardiff & Middlesbrough sides with strong home records.

MK DONS v Scunthorpe

At the start of the season i tipped MK Dons for promotion, but by mid season I had accepted that wasn’t to be. Yet recent form has seen them mount a late charge for the play offs. They have taken 10points from 15 so far in April, recording home wins against strong Brentford & Swindon sides in the process. Defeat in this fixture will condemn Scunthorpe, and it looks like this will be the outcome as they have lost 3 of their last 4 games, winning just 2 of their last 10.

Portsmouth v SHEFF UTD

It looks as though Sheffield United will have to settle for a play off spot this season, but will want to build a good run of form prior to that challenge. They have been exceptional away from home this season with a record of W11 D7 L3, and will expect to build on this as they travel to the south coast to face a Portsmouth side who are already relegated. Despite Pompey have decent home form going into this game I just feel that the confirmation of relegation will take the wind from their sales as they face up to life in League Two next season.

WALSALL v Bury

I’ll be the first to admit i misjudged Walsall’s ability pre-season, and am surprised to find them with an outside shot at a play-off place this late in the season. What has been key to their lofty league position has been their knack of not losing games, with just 11 defeats this season. At home they have a record of W10 D7 L5, and I don’t see this record being tarnished at all when they face a Bury side who have been confirmed as relegated and have an away record of W3 D7 L12. Unbeaten in 14 league games, 6 at home, this game is Walsall’s for the taking.

GILLINGHAM v Wimbledon

Table topping Gillingham were on a 9 game unbeaten run prior to last weekend’s defeat away to Cheltenham. This result does not worry me too much due to Cheltenham being sublime at home (48/64 points), and with Wimbledon struggling of late after losing 3 and drawing 1 of their last 4, i can see the home side getting at least the single point they need to be confirmed as League Two champions this weekend, but expect them to take all 3.

KIDDERMINSTER v Stockport

This is a perfect opportunity for Kidderminster to stake a real claim for the title as main rivals Mansfield face a tricky match against Wrexham. Kidderminster will want to add real pressure prior to their rivals late kick off by turning over struggling Stockport. This should really be a straight forward home win when you take the recent form and home/away form of each side into account.

7-Fold  –  37/1

Additional Games:

BOLTON v Middlesbrough

Bolton’s home form has seen them challenging for a play off spot with a record of W13 D5 L3, with them winning their last 7 home league games. On the other hand Middlesbrough’s away form is a big reason as to why they have slipped out of contention for a play of berth. They are winless in 11 away games in a row, losing 10 of these. Middlesbrough now have little to play for, a fate which is unlikely to give the side the battling spirit which they have so clearly lacked when away from home this season.

Hartlepool v BRENTFORD

Brentford will be hoping that either Doncaster or Bournemouth slip up as they look to secure 3 points which has the potential to lift them into an automatic promotion spot. In a similar situation to Portsmouth’s, Hartlepool have secured decent results of late after picking up wins against Bury and Tranmere, but after being confirmed as a League Two side for next season I question whether they will have the desire to beat one of the best sides in the league.

YEOVIL v Crewe

Yeovil Boss Gary Johnson was pretty pissed off at his sides loss to lowly Oldham, managed by his son Lee, in midweek, and will expect a good result against Crewe to provide his side with some momentum as they look ahead to the League One play offs. They have a good home record to build on which reads as W12 D4 L6, and face a Crewe side who have now lost 3 on the bounce since winning the Football League Trophy earlier in April. These 3 defeats have came against Brentford, Doncaster & Swindon, all of whom are in the play off zone or automatic promotion places. This level of team seems to have Crewe’s number and it would be no surprise if Crewe fell to 4 defeats from 4.

10-Fold  –  197/1

13 / 04 / 2013

Didnt have a chance to post before kick off this week, but these are my bets:

Leeds v SHEFF WEDS (Double Chance)

Scunthorpe v WALSALL (Double Chance)

Shrewsbury v BOURNEMOUTH (Double Chance)

Crewe v DONCASTER (Double Chance)

NORTHAMPTON (Double Chance) v York

Southend v BRISTOL ROVERS (Double Chance)

HEREFORD (Double Chance) v Gateshead

09 / 04 / 2013

DONCASTER v Carlisle

Doncaster home form – W10 D5 L6, Scored 26 & Conceded 20

Carlisle away form – W6 D6 L9, Scored 21 & Conceded 31

Home / Away GD Swing – 16 (Favours Doncaster)

Doncaster recent form (5 Games) – D W L W W

Doncaster recent home form (5 Games) – D W D W W

Carlisle recent form (5 Games) – L D D D W

Carlisle recent away form (5 Games) – L D L D W

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Doncaster Wins = 1   Draws = 0  Carlisle Wins = 0

 

PORT VALE v Aldershot

Port Vale home form – W10 D5 L6, Scored 47 & Conceded 23

Aldershot away form – W4 D10 L6, Scored 18 & Conceded 25

Home / Away GD Swing – 31 (Favours Port Vale)

Port Vale recent form (5 Games) – L W W D W

Port Vale recent home form (5 Games) – L D L W W

Aldershot recent form (5 Games) – D L L D W

Aldershot recent away form (5 Games) – L D D D D

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Port Vale Wins = 5   Draws = 0  Aldershot Wins = 0

 

MANSFIELD v Macclesfield

Mansfield home form – W15 D3 L3, Scored 49 & Conceded 16

Macclesfield away form – W7 D6 L7, Scored 30 & Conceded 30

Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Mansfield)

Mansfield recent form (5 Games) – W W W L W

Mansfield recent home form (5 Games) – W W W W W

Macclesfield recent form (5 Games) – L D D L L

Macclesfield recent away form (5 Games) – D W W L D

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Mansfield Wins = 1   Draws = 0  Macclesfield Wins = 0

 

Odds of 4.68 available for this treble.

06 / 04 / 2013

HULL  v Middlesbrough

Hull home form – W12 D2 L6, Scored 32 & Conceded 20

Middlesbrough away form – W5 D2 L13, Scored 22 & Conceded 38

Home / Away GD Swing – 28 (Favours Hull)

Hull recent form (5 Games) – L W L W L

Hull recent home form (5 Games) – W W W L L

Middlesbrough recent form (5 Games) – L L L L D

Middlesbrough recent away form (5 Games) – L D L L L

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Hull Wins = 1   Draws = 1  Middlesbrough Wins = 3

NOTTM FOREST v Blackpool

Nottm Forest home form – W10 D6 L4, Scored 34 & Conceded 24

Blackpool away form – W6 D6 L8, Scored 26 & Conceded 30

Home / Away GD Swing – 14 (Favours Nottm Forest)

Nottm Forest recent form (5 Games) – W W W D D

Nottm Forest recent home form (5 Games) – D W W W D

Blackpool recent form (5 Games) – D W L D W

Blackpool recent away form (5 Games) – L L D W D

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Nottm Forest Wins = 1   Draws = 2  Blackpool Wins = 0

DERBY v Ipswich

Derby home form – W10 D7 L3, Scored 39 & Conceded 20

Ipswich away form – W5 D6 L9, Scored 12 & Conceded 31

Home / Away GD Swing – 38 (Favours Derby)

Derby recent form (5 Games) – D L W W W

Derby recent home form (5 Games) – D D L W W

Ipswich recent form (5 Games) – L D W W D

Ipswich recent away form (5 Games) – L D L D D

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Derby Wins = 2   Draws =1   Ipswich Wins = 2

BOURNEMOUTH v Notts County

Bournemouth home form – W11 D6 L4, Scored 37 & Conceded 19

Notts County away form – W6 D11 L4, Scored 27 & Conceded 20

Home / Away GD Swing – 11 (Favours Bournemouth)

Bournemouth recent form (5 Games) – W W W W W

Bournemouth recent home form (5 Games) – L L L W W

Notts County recent form (5 Games) – L W D L L

Notts County recent away form (5 Games) – D D D D L

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Bournemouth Wins = 2   Draws = 1  Notts County Wins = 2

GILLINGHAM v Torquay

Gillingham home form – W11 D4 L6, Scored 34 & Conceded 19

Torquay away form – W3 D8 L10, Scored 15 & Conceded 21

Home / Away GD Swing – 22 (Favours Gillingham)

Gillingham recent form (5 Games) – D D W D W

Gillingham recent home form (5 Games) – W L W W W

Torquay recent form (5 Games) – D W W L L

Torquay recent away form (5 Games) – L D D D L

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 2  Draws = 2   Torquay Wins = 1

Barrow v MANSFIELD

Barrow home form – W5 D7 L9, Scored 20 & Conceded 30

Mansfield away form – W11 D2 L7, Scored 32 & Conceded 32

Home / Away GD Swing – 10 (Favours Mansfield)

Barrow recent form (5 Games) – W W D D D

Barrow recent home form (5 Games) – W L W D D

Mansfield recent form (5 Games) – W W W W L

Mansfield recent away form (5 Games) – W W W W L

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Barrow Wins = 0   Draws = 2  Mansfield Wins = 3

KIDDERMINSTER v Lincoln

Kidderminster home form – W13 D4 L4, Scored 42 & Conceded 22

Lincoln away form – W5 D6 L9, Scored 27 & Conceded 30

Home / Away GD Swing – 23 (Favours Lincoln)

Kidderminster recent form (5 Games) – W W D W W

Kidderminster recent home form (5 Games) – W W W W W

Lincoln recent form (5 Games) – L W W W D

Lincoln recent away form (5 Games) – D L L W W

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Kidderminster Wins = 1   Draws = 1   Lincoln Wins = 1