18 / 08 / 2013
4 Bets here on the Crystal Palace v Tottenham game. I am anticipating Spurs being too strong for the newly promoted side and have backed them to cover the -1 handicap, whilst keeping a clean sheet in the process.
2013 / 2014 Premier League Table Prediction
For top spot it was ultimately down to selecting from Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal & Tottenham. I include Spurs in the list of contenders as i really feel that the signings of Paulinho, Chadli & Soldado are all excellent. Obviously we all saw Paulinho beast it in the Confederations Cup and Soldado’s record in La Liga speaks for itself. As for Chadli, who was somewhat of a surprise signing, i watched several games in which he played last season and he was the match winner in the majority of these – not necessarily through scoring but he certainly has the ability in the Dutch League to be a catalyst. Supplemented with at least 1 more striker, perhaps as part as an exchange in the Bale move to Madrid, and a defender to replace Caulker, and i think Spurs have a very strong squad, but perhaps not the experience to claim top spot. I could write a similar paragraph about Arsenal after finishing just above Spurs last season except the Gunners have done next to nothing to improve their squad other than young Sanogo from Auxerre. Even if Wenger had managed to snap up Higuain or Suarez his apparent neglect of the rest of the team would surely have seen them faulter. Post the time of writing this piece if they were to capture a midfielder with some steel and guile, perhaps Luis Gustavo of Bayern, a creative midfielder and a striker (as their pursuit of Suarez continues…) then they maybe launch themselves back into contention but im sure most Arsenal fans are not expecting such miracles. This leaves me with De-throned champions Man City. New boss Pellegrini undoubtedly has class and ability, but i am not overly inspired by the signings that City have made. I like Negredo, and as with Soldado his La Liga record is impressive, but im not sure that he is a top, top player. I have never been that blown away by Navas in any of the games i have seen him play, and then there is always that lingering worry that even Negredo’s and Pellegrini’s familiar arms around his shoulder may not be enough to deter the notorious home sickness from setting in. Fernandinho is a bit of an unknown quality really, after several years in the Ukraine you cant really be sure if he can step up to a higher league such as the Premier League, but for the £30m+ pricetag he has on his head the City board and fans will be expecting him to! Moving on the current champions United, they obviously have players in their squad who can win games, most notably Robin Van Persie, although their failure to add to their squad reminds me of Man City’s mistakes the previous year. A few late signings to appease the fans may not be the summer activity they wanted, but David Moyes really has to add 2-3 players to this team not only to have some of his own players in the dressing room, but also to ensure United do not stall. Some may knock the potential signings of Baines and Fellaini from old club Everton, but Moyes could do much worse, for much more money! Something around or just over £35m would propably be enough for the two of them, and would really strengthen Moyes’ squad. If United fail to address their CM issues then i can see 2nd or 3rd place in the first season post SAF. So it’s Chelsea who will be champions for me. They have excellent squad depth, littered with exciting young players, some of which will now have a season in the PL behind them such as Hazard, Lukaku, Oscar, Azpilicueta, whilst also have the likes of Ivanovic, Cole, & Lampard to lead by example. As Jose Mourinho returns the Chelsea fans will have a figure to get behind finally after Benitez’ reign last season. A strong start, and maybe nicking 3 points from United on 26th August, and they will be all set for a long, yet potentially fruitful season.
As for the relegation battle, Crystal Palace must be a shoe in for the drop. They haven’t really strengthened sufficiently, and even the players that they have brought in such as Jerome Thomas, Spain U20 player Jose Campana, and Peterborough striker Dwight Gayle have only marginally bridged the gap between Palace and Cardiff who also got promotion last season. Fortunately for Palace, London as a City is a pull, and i feel they should sign a few more players of sufficient quality to see them finish Hull. The Tigers have a lack of Premier League quality across the park, i cant see them scoring anywhere near enough goals and their defense includes Paul McShane so enough said there really. The 3rd and final relegation spot for me will go to Sunderland. Di Canio did a decent job helping them to survive last season, and a summer of overhaul was deemed necessary. However, the players he has brought in are uninspiring really, and too many changes can lead to trouble on the field when the defeats are coming. Sunderland have lacked any directed the last couple of seasons, promising much but failing to deliver and constant upheaval wont help this in my eyes. As for those who i think will just avoid the drop, i can see Cardiff, Fulham and Stoke dithering just a few points above the drop zone this coming season.
09 / 03 / 2013
I’ve picked out a grand total of 9 games this weekend which i fancy. I fancy a 6 game line up, and will offer the other 3 as supplements if you fancy going all out on a 9 game accumulator!
CRYSTAL PALACE v Leeds
Both of these sides are strong at home compared to their away form, so it was a simple choice to pick out Palace as potential victors in this match up. Palace have a home record of W12 D5 L1, scoring 45 and conceding 21, whilst Leeds’ home record reads W3 D6 L9, scoring 22 and conceding 31. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 33 (favours Palace). The home side go into the game on the back of an away win over Derby and a thrilling 4-2 win over high flying Hull, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. Leeds have 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 4 games, but notably the wins have come at home. They have won just 1 of their last 10 away games. Over the last few seasons Leeds have undoubtedly got the better of their opponents in the H2H battle, yet they invariably struggle when Palace are at home.
WATFORD v Blackpool
Watford will want to maintain their slight advantage over 3rd placed Hull in their battle for an automatic promotion spot. They face a Blackpool side who have been struggling to find any real form for some time now, winning just twice in 14 league games. Watford’s home form is decent enough, having W10 D3 L5, scoring 32 and conceding 20. Blackpool’s away record stands at W5 D5 L8, scoring 23 and conceding 28. These stats provide a home/away GD swing of 17 (favours Watford). Recent form indicates a home win here, with Watford being unbeaten in 7, winning 5 and drawing 2 of those games, whilst winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5 home games. Blackpool go into this match having won just 2 of their last 9 away games, losing 4 and drawing 3 of them. Blackpool won this fixture last season, whilst drawing when at home. So far this season the two sides played out a 2-2 draw. Overall Blackpool edge the head to head stats, yet I feel they have regressed this season, and in Paul Ince they have a manager who is yet to prove himself or his abilities, whereas Watford look like sustaining their attacking, effective football.
NORTHAMPTON v Accrington
After losing in their last game to play off competitors Exeter, Northampton will want to pick up the 3 points against lowly Accrington in order to reaffirm their promotion credentials. They have a strong home record to build on having W12 D2 L3, scoring 35 and conceding 14. Prior to last weekend’s defeat they had gone unbeaten in 5, winning 4 of them games, so they are in pretty good form. Having won their last 7 home games, banging in 14 goals in the process, they will be full of confidence. The Accrington side that they face have done well recently, picking up 5 points from their last 3 games to boost their survival hopes. Yet this should not mask the fact that they have just 2 wins in 10 games. Away from home their record is actually comparable to sides who find themselves higher up the division having W5 D4 L9, scoring 20 and conceding 30. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 31 (favours Northampton). Despite their commendable away form for a side in 22nd position, they have actually managed just 1 win in their last 9 away games, losing 7 and drawing 1. In the head to heads between the sides, the 7 meeting thus far between the sides have seen Northampton win 3, draw 2, and 2 Accrington wins. These fixtures date from 2012-2009, and it is worth noting that Northampton are unbeaten at home. This is how I see it remaining.
ROTHERHAM v Dagenham & Redbridge
Other than in another purple patch back in October, Rotherham have not experienced a solid run of good results this season until recent weeks where they have gone unbeaten in 6, winning 4 of the games. This run has seen them move up the table and are now in contention for an automatic promotion spot. At home, the statistics of W10 D1 L7, scoring 34 and conceding 25, indicates that they are quite hit and miss, so it is worth paying close attention to their opponents form. Dagenham have been on a poor run, winning just 2 of their last 10 games, and are now winless in 4. Away from home their stats read as W4 D5 L9, scoring 23 and conceding 30. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 16 (favours Rotherham). They are winless in their last 5 away games, a run which includes 2 draws and 3 defeats. The overall recent form of the two sides is strongly in favour of Rotherham, who have achieved a 6 game run of WWWDDW, whilst Dagenham have DWLLDL. Dagenham have a 6 point cushion over the relegation zone, whilst Rotherham have looking to kick on and get promoted and will see this as a winnable game. The last 6 H2H encounters between the sides have seen it end even at 3 wins apiece. However, it seem the home side generally comes out on top, which is how I see it going this weekend.
MANSFIELD v Stockport
Stockport need to win this game to give themselves some room to breathe from the chasing pack of relegation candidates, yet their recent form has only indicated that they may not have what it takes. Unfortunately for them they travel to a Mansfield side who have the added drive to win from both maintaining their place in the play off zone from those trying to overtake them, whilst still harbouring hopes of top spot should they continue their fine run of form. At home Mansfield have a great record of W11 D3 L3, scoring 38 and conceding just 15. Stockport’s away record reads as W3 D7 L6, scoring just 15 and conceding 24. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 32 (favours Mansfield). Recent form going into the match indicates Mansfield should triumph given that they have achieved WWWWW whilst Stockport have struggled, recording DLLLD. The H2H’s from this season and last also sits in favour of Mansfield, with them having won all 3 of the games, including a 1-3 away win earlier in January. This should be a straightforward win.
Ebbsfleet v NEWPORT
This is the anomaly of my selections, with me backing the away side! As a firm believer in the advantage that playing at home can give a team i try to steer clear of away sides, but this one looks a banker to me. Ebbsfleet’s home record stands at W4 D8 L5, scoring 23 and conceding 28. They face a high flying Newport side who have the enviable away record of W10 D1 L4, scoring 35 and conceding 25. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 (favours Newport). Recent form going into the game looks simple really, not just for the results though. Ebbsfleet have a 5 game record of DWLLL, whilst Newport’s reads as WWWWW. Tellingly, Newport have recently recorded wins against Hyde and Telford, both of whom are on similar points as Ebbsfleet, whilst also winning against Woking and Mansfield, who are doing well this season. They really seem on the ball. Ebbsfleet however, have not. The 3 games they have lost in a row have been against Grimsby, Kidderminster, and Wrexham. All 3 are teams battling with Newport for play offs and automatic promotion places. In these 3 games Ebbsfleet have conceded 10 goals in total. It seems they are just not as good as the top sides.
Betting Summary
Supplement Games
NOTTM FOREST v Wolves
It wouldn’t surprise me if Billy Davies managed to sneak Forest into the play offs in the remaining games in the season. Forest have now won 4 on the bounce and will be in a buoyant mood before this game. Their home record reads as W9 D5 L4, scoring 29 and conceding 21, whilst they have lost just 1 of the last 7 at home in the league. Wolves are really struggling. Their players haven’t gelled at all this season, nor have they performed. There is a real lack of confidence and belief in the squad. Their away form currently stands at W6 D2 L10, scoring 20 and conceding 23. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 11 (favours Forest). Wolves have won just 2 in their last 8 away games, in their midweek game at a struggling Millwall and then way back in December 2012. This season Forest have already bettered Wolves when playing at Molineux, running out 1-2 winners. They now appear to be a more settled, effective team under Davies, and I expect them to do a job on Wolves this weekend.
SHEFF UTD v MK Dons
Despite MK Dons beating table toppers Doncaster 3-0 in midweek, I still believe Sheff Utd will edge this one. The Blades have a strong home record to build on, which currently stands at W7 D7 L3, scoring 27 and conceding 17. Their opponents, MK Dons, have an away record which is the key reason behind their mid table position, as it currently reads as W4 L7 D6, scoring 20 and conceding 20. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 10 (favours Sheff Utd). Going into the game, Sheffield United have hit a fine run of form, being unbeaten in 6, winning 5 of these games. MK Dons had lost 3 on the spin, followed by 4 draws on the bounce prior to their midweek win of Doncaster. The MK Dons are winless in their last 5 away games, and I can see Sheff Utd prolonging this run despite the fact that they beat Sheff United in the last 2 matches between the sides. Both of these games were when MK Dons were at home, but interestingly when Sheff Utd were at home, it was them who were the victors. Home win for me here.
GILLINGHAM v Plymouth
Gillingham’s last two games have seen them stutter somewhat, losing against Oxford and then drawing against Aldershot. Despite this they maintain an above average home record of W8 D4 L6, scoring 30 and conceding 18. They face a Plymouth side who are poor away from home, having W3 D6 L8, scoring 16 and conceding 24. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 20 (favours Gillingham). Going into this game, Gillingham, as previously mentioned, are on a relatively poor run of form. However, prior to those two games they had won 3 of 4. Plymouths last two games have given them a real chance of survival after seeing them pick up 4 points from games against fellow strugglers Wimbledon and Barnet. The last 2 seasons have seen Gillingham remain unbeaten against Plymouth, winning 2 games last season along with a 2-2 draw earlier in this campaign. In fact, you have to go back to 2004 for the last time Plymouth beat Gillingham. I expect this weekend’s game to add to that long wait.
9 Game Accumulator
Alternative Bets
Goals Galore
Value Double
16 / 02 / 2013
CRYSTAL PALACE v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have lost their last 5 away games, with their last away victory coming way back on the 8th December 2012! Crystal Palace go into this game on a 15 game unbeaten home run, losing their first game of the season to Watford all the way back on the 18th August 2012. Palace’s home form has been unbelievable this season, winning 9, drawing 5 & losing just 1, scoring 35 (avg 2.3) and conceding 17 goals (avg 1.1). Middlesbrough’s away form is the key reason as to why they are not in the automatic promotion places. They have played 15, won 5, draw 1, and lost 9. They have scored 18 goals (avg 1.2) and conceded 27 (avg 1.8).
Due to the close proximity of the sides in the league table, with Palace sitting in 5th whilst Middlesbrough are in 6th, there is value in this bet. For that reason, I may place Palace as a draw no bet, retaining value but offering more safety, especially considering their home form.
HULL v Charlton
Hull have a solid home record of W9 D2 L4, scoring 23 and conceding 15. They face a Charlton side who have been inconsistent away from home this season, with a record of W6 D4 L5, scoring 20 and conceding 19. The home/away GD swing is 9.
Hull go into the match having won their previous game against Derby 2-1, whilst Charlton will be looking build on a 1-1 draw against Birmingham. The only recent form to go by is the match between the two sides earlier in the season, although this ended 0-0.
The main reasons I am backing Hull are their home form, and the fact that it is beginning to get to that time of the season where those who are serious about promotion will be looking to get a good run going.
YEOVIL v Scunthorpe
Both Yeovil & Scunthorpe have been in decent form recently. Yeovil have won 5 on the bounce, & 8 of their last 10. Scunthorpe have won 3 in a row. As the home side this season, Yeovil have a record of W9 D2 L5, scoring 27 (avg 1.7) and conceding 17 (avg 1). Scunthorpe, when away from home, have a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 16 (avg 1) and conceding 24 (avg 1.5). In the head to head between the two sides, recent history as a whole indicates that Scunthorpe have the upper hand, yet in the reverse fixture this season, Yeovil ran out the winners by 4 unanswered goals. Yeovil have a striker who has found his scoring boots this season in Paddy Madden (16), whilst Scunthorpe have no major striking threat after the departure of Leon Clarke who remains their top scorer (11) despite leaving at the end of 2012, meaning Karl Hawley (7) is their top scorer at the club.
Odds of around 2.05 mean we could place Yeovil/Draw or draw no bet and still have relatively decent odds.
Preston v BOURNEMOUTH
Graham Westley was sacked as manager of Preston earlier in the week, leaving a squad which is very much his design to try and rescue what will inevitably be a disappointing season. Being leaderless will only hamper their chances of picking up points against a Bournemouth side who have fully bought into their manager, Eddie Howe. He has led them to the league summit, and his side have enough quality to maintain their promotion push.
At home this season Preston have a record of W3 D7 L6, scoring 20 and conceding 21. Bournemouth have an away record of W7 D4 L5, scoring 26 and conceding 27. Now evidently Bournemouth’s away record is one to spout superlatives about, but they have won their last 3 away games in a row, contributing to their 5 game winning run, whilst Preston are winless in their last 6 home matches.
The head to heads between the sides offers us 3 recent games to look at, and it indicates that Bournemouth have the upper hand with 2 wins & 1 draw.
CHELTENHAM v Aldershot
Cheltenham tackle Aldershot this weekend, going into the game in indifferent form. Over the last 5 games they have a record DWDLW. Fortunately for the home side their opponents have a record of DLDLL. Cheltenham’s home form is the reason they currently find themselves sitting in 3rd place in the league, having W9 D5 L2, scoring 25 and conceding 14. Aldershot are in fact better away from home, having W4 D4 L6, scoring 15 and conceding 22. Despite this, there is a notable 18 goal swing in the home/away GD. Over the last 3 seasons, the H2H record between the two sides is even, with both sides having won 3 games each. However, Cheltenham have already beaten Aldershot this season 1-0 when away from home, and last season won the home match 2-0.
Again, due to the availability of odds of around 1.95 we could place Cheltenham/Draw or draw no bet and still have odds which add value to the betting slip.
PORT VALE v Morecambe
Both sides are in decent form in this one, with Port Vale having a 5 game record of WDWWD, whilst Morecambe have a record of DWWLW. The home/away record offers some indication of how this game could go, with Port Vale having a home record of W8 D4 L3, scoring 36 & conceding 15, whilst Morecambe having an away record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 21 & conceding 22. There is a 22 goals swing in the home/away GD comparison.
In their last 3 home games Port Vale have scored 10 goals and conceded 0. In Morecambe’s last 3 away games they have scored 7 and conceded 4. I feel Port Vale will be too strong for their opponents here, using the home crowd to their advantage.
Bet Summary:
Bet 1: – Teams to Win (Best with BetVictor)
Bet 2: – Draw No Bets (Best with William Hill)
Alternative Bets:
Good Luck Everybody!!!
The Soccer Surgeon 