10 / 08 / 2013
Huddersfield v QPR
LEYTON ORIENT v Shrewsbury
OXFORD v Bury
Treble pays approx 8/1
26 / 02 / 2013
After landing an 8-game accumulator at the weekend, i’m taking a chance with these midweek fixtures by backing 9 games on the 4-fold & 5-fold, with a small stake on the accumulator.
League One
Colchester v YEOVIL
Colchester home form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 25
Yeovil away form – W8 D2 L6, Scored 26 & Conceded 24
Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Yeovil)
Colchester recent form (5 Games) – WLWLL
Yeovil recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Yeovil Wins = 4 Draws = 2 Colchester Wins = 0
* I think both teams could score here, but Yeovil should edge it, as the H2H record suggests. 2-1 would be no surprise.
Portsmouth v MK DONS
Portsmouth home form – W3 D3 L11, Scored 18 & Conceded 26
MK Dons away form – W4 D6 L6, Scored 19 & Conceded 19
Home / Away GD Swing – 8 (Favours MK Dons)
Portsmouth recent form (5 Games) – LLDDL
MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LLLDD
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Portsmouth Wins = 0 Draws = 1 MK Dons Wins = 0
* Despite MK Dons being in poor form themselves, I feel they have been underperforming. Against a Pompey side in freefall they should gain a win.
SHEFF UTD v Leyton Orient
Sheff Utd home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 27 & Conceded 17
Leyton Orient away form – W6 D2 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 23
Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Sheff Utd)
Sheff Utd recent form (5 Games) – LWWWW
Leyton Orient recent form (5 Games) – DWWLL
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Sheff Utd Wins = 2 Draws = 1 Leyton Orient Wins = 0
* Sheff Utd have put together a strong run of form over the last few weeks to reignite their promotion hopes. They edged out the last encounter 0-1 away from home and I see them winning this encounter on home soil too.
SWINDON v Bury
Swindon home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 10
Bury away form – W2 D7 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 35 (Favours Swindon)
Swindon recent form (5 Games) – DWDWD
Bury recent form (5 Games) – WDLLL
Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Swindon Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Bury Wins = 0
* Despite not having Di Canio at the helm, Swindon maintained their 13 game unbeaten run last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Preston. I think against a poor Bury side who have lost 3 on the bounce they will pick up the win, perhaps with a clean sheet.
League Two
GILLINGHAM v Oxford
Gillingham home form – W8 D4 L5, Scored 30 & Conceded 17
Oxford away form – W6 D2 L9, Scored 21 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 21 (Favours Gillingham)
Gillingham recent form (5 Games) – LWDWW
Oxford recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 2 Draws = 3 Oxford Wins = 0
* Gillingham have lost just 2 in 10, and go into this on the back of 2 wins, whilst Oxford have recently turned around a poor run with a Win and a Draw. Oxford have struggled against Gillingham over recent seasons and I expect the same in this game. Over 2.5 Goals would be my side bet in this game.
NORTHAMPTON v Bristol Rovers
Northampton home form – W12 D2 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 14
Bristol Rovers away form – W4 D6 L7, Scored 20 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Northampton)
Northampton recent form (5 Games) – LWWDW
Bristol Rovers recent form (5 Games) – DWWLD
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 1 Draws = 0 Oxford Wins = 2
* Northampton’s home record is sublime, whilst their opponents away record is below par. Despite Bristol winning in terms of H2H, the strength of Northampton at home sways this for me.
BURTON v Morecambe
Burton home form – W12 D3 L2, Scored 37 & Conceded 17
Morecambe away form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 22 & Conceded 22
Home / Away GD Swing – 20 (Favours Burton)
Burton recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW
Morecambe recent form (5 Games) – WDWWD
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Burton Wins = 2 Draws = 2 Morecambe Wins = 1
* This will be a close game for me, which leads me to think Draw No Bet or Burton +0 on the Asian Handicap will be a better option. Morecambe have been in decent form, yet I believe home advantage and the GD record has the ability to provide the decisive factor in this game.
Conference Premier
GRIMSBY v Ebbsfleet
Grimsby home form – W11 D3 L3, Scored 33 & Conceded 12
Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L8, Scored 17 & Conceded 29
Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Grimsby)
Grimsby recent form (5 Games) – WDWWL
Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – LLWDW
Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Grimsby Wins = 1 Draws = 1 Ebbsfleet Wins = 1
* Promotion chasing Grimsby host relegation battling Ebbsfleet here. A solid home side faces up against a struggling away team, and despite Ebbsfleet improving of late, I see Grimsby being relatively easy winners here. If they were to cover the -1 handicap I would not be surprised.
Barrow v WREXHAM
Barrow home form – W3 D5 L7, Scored 15 & Conceded 25
Wrexham away form – W9 D5 L3, Scored 25 & Conceded 13
Home / Away GD Swing – 22 (Favours Wrexham)
Barrow recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD
Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW
Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Barrow Wins = 1 Draws = 1 Wrexham Wins = 3
* Table toppers Wrexham visit relegation threatened Barrow in what should be a relatively straight forward victory. They have a solid away form to build on, and have not faced much trouble against Barrow over recent seasons.
Betting Summary
Extra
FA Cup
EVERTON v Oldham
Might not be placing a bet on this game but have taken an interest in it nonetheless. Having played Saturday – Tuesday – Saturday – Tuesday, I feel that weary legs could prove to be Oldham’s undoing in this game. Everton boss David Moyes will be looking, and expecting, and immediate reaction from his side after the weekend’s late loss to Norwich. Oldham have been poor away from home this year, with a record of W5 D3 L9, scoring 18 and conceding 27, whereas Everton are solid enough at home with a record of W8 D3 L3, scoring 22 and conceding 16, to comfortable, in theory, win this. There is little value in backing Everton outright, so I’m envisaging that the -1 handicap should be covered should you fancy a punt.
Odds – 1.53
26 / 01 / 2013
Burnley v Birmingham
Looking at recent form, Burnley will be going into this match full of confidence, not only thanks to their own performances of late, but due to the turmoil that surrounds Birmingham FC at this moment in time. This unease has undoubtedly transferred onto the pitch, with just 2/12 available points picked up from their last 4 games. 2 draws have followed 2 defeats, and with the news that all first team players are free to transfer, confidence, belief and commitment will have taken a hit. Burnley have won their last 3 games, and before than were edged out 1-0 to high flying Leicester after a win over a decent Derby side. The goals which have gained them these wins have been spread out amongst the squad, which will give several players confidence that they can find the net against their struggling opponents.
At home this season Burnley have a record of W7 D4 L3, winning 50% of their games, whilst scoring 22 goals and conceding just 14, giving them a home GD of +8. Their 3 defeats came against Charlton, Leicester and Brighton, all of whom find themselves in the top half of the table. Birmingham, who find themselves firmly in the bottom half of the league in 20th position, have an away record of W3 D5 L6, losing around 40% of their away games, whilst scoring 18 and conceding 23 goals, leaving them with an away GD of -5.
In terms of the head to head record between the two sides, Birmingham have the upper hand. But I place more weight in the recent form and Home/Away records personally, as teams can change from season to season.
After reading a few Burnley forums, several fans feel they should field an unchanged side after their impressive performances, believing that Dyche has a tough decision to make in regards to dropping Sam Vokes, who scored in their last match against Millwall, for the fit again Charlie Austin. However, it is this competition for places, and tough decisions, that any manager will be happy to have, and is an indication of the strength and buoyant mood in the squad that there is the potential to leave out such a prolific scorer and not feel too weakened by such a move.
Colchester v Walsall
League One’s side in the worst form play host to one of the league’s most in form teams here, with Colchester welcoming Walsall to the Weston Homes Community Stadium as they look to finally end a run of 9 consecutive defeats. Unfortunately for the home side, Walsall have been rising up the division over the last 2 months, experiencing just 2 defeats in December & January combined, whilst tasting victory on 6 occasions. Clearly recent form favours the Saddlers who will quite rightly fancy their chances of gaining 3 points this weekend.
However, over the course of the season it is not Walsall’s away form which has provided them with the majority of their points. They currently have an away record of W5 D4 L5, scoring 19 and conceding 21, displaying a degree of inconsistency which leads to caution on placing too much of a stake on this game. However, their opponents’ home record suffers from even greater unpredictability in performances, reading W4 D3 L6, scoring 16 and conceding 19.
Walsall have already beaten their opponents 1-0 in their home match earlier in the season, and I feel that they will take confidence from this result. For Colchester, confidence is no doubt at a minimum, so facing a side who have already bettered you this season, and who are on a decent run of form will be a daunting task. Furthermore, Colchester’s recent poor run has seen them concede 21 goals whilst finding the back of the net just 5 times, which over this 9 game run averages at conceding over 2 goals per game, scoring just once every 2 game. I’m going with the form side in this one.
Bournemouth v Crewe
In recent form, these two sides have faired similarly. Over the last 10 games Bournemouth have won 5, as have Crewe. Looking over the shorted period of 3 games, both sides have W1 D1 L1. However, Crewe’s run went as WDL, whereas Bournemouth’s was DLW. Going into the game on the back of a defeat and a draw will have numbed the confidence Crewe gained from their win against Carlisle, whilst Bournemouth will be buoyant after bouncing back from the defeat against Walsall with victory over struggling Hartlepool, despite making hard work of it against the league’s bottom side.
Home/Away form is a strong indicator of how this match will go for me. Bournemouth have been solid at home this season, with a record of W7 D6 L1, scoring 26 and conceding 12, with a home GD of +14. Away from home, Crewe have been inconsistent having W4 D5 L5, scoring 19 and conceding 22, leaving them with an away GD of -3. The difference in the records and the 25 goal swing in GD leads me to favour Bournemouth here.
Furthermore, in the head to heads between the sides, Bournemouth come out on top, although the most recent fixtures between the sides was in the 09/10 season where Bournemouth won both matches.
Gillingham v York
After losing to Port Vale, and surrendering top spot in League 2 in the process, Gillingham will be looking to get back to winning ways. Prior to their defeat against Port Vale, a solid win against an inform Southend was followed by a win against Bristol Rovers for Gillingham. York on the other hand are winless in 3, losing once and drawing their last 2 games.
At home this season Gillingham have a record of W6 D3 L4, scoring 25 and conceding 14, with a home GD of +11. Their opponents have an away record of W4 D7 L3, scoring 17 and conceding 18, with an away GD of -1.
There is no recent head to head statistics to go on for this match, so recent form and home/away statistics will provide the basis of this selection.
Fleetwood v Oxford
The form guide suggests Oxford will triumph in this match, after Fleetwood suffered 2 defeats on the bounce whilst Oxford have won the last 4 and are unbeaten in 8.
At home this season Fleetwood have W5 D5 L4, scoring and conceding 16 goals. Away from home Oxford have achieved W5 D2 L7, scoring 20 and conceding 25. Now these stats may not necessarily shout out “Away Win”, but bearing in mind that Oxford have won their last 3 away games (1-2 @ Bradford, 0-3 @ Wimbledon & 1-3 @ Exeter), I would say that they have found their feet away from home. They also drew their 2 away game prior to that run leaving them unbeaten in 5 away games.
There is no head to head to go on with this game, so it really is just recent form. Of all of the games I have selected, this is the one I am least confident with, but I have a feeling that Oxford could snatch the 3 points.
5-Fold Odds of close to 50/1
I’ll be looking to back this selection on doubles, trebles, 4-fold and the 5-fold. Prefer to play it safe and recoup if teams let me down!
24 / 11 / 2012
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
‘What a weird player Walcott is, an infuriating mix of the unplayable and the unfathomable’.
In the Guardians coverage of the North London derby last weekend, they used the above quote to aptly describe Theo Walcott. However, the same notion can also be used to illustrate the maddening reality of the Gunners inability to produce a display in which they control and dominate a game without it being littered with silly mistakes. Against Spurs the scoreline would suggest they deserved the result, which I can’t argue they did. However, prior to Adebayor reducing the game to little more than a contest, and on a few occasions post-sending off, the Arsenal backline was noticeably positional inept. Whether this was down to Vermaelen playing at LB as opposed to centrally, or due to Mertesacker being slower than a wet weekend, is debatable. Koscielny’s awareness does rescue the Gunners when the beanpole Germans deficiencies (Yes, German’s do have deficiencies) rear their ugly head. If big Per wants to learn about the importance of positioning I’d recommend having a quick read of Sun Tzu’s: The Art of War. The ancient Chinese military strategist outlines how positional awareness gives you a framework for understanding your strategic position. It also enables you to see your position as part of a larger environment surrounded by other positions. You can understand which aspects of your position are secure and which are the most dynamic and likely to change. Mertesacker sometimes seems oblivious to the location of his team-mates in relation to his own, which leads to attacks running in behind and offside traps being pointless. I can imagine one Pascal Cygan sitting in a French villa somewhere chuckling to himself as he watches with bemusement as his version 2.0 struggles in the manner he became known for. But I can’t lay the blame solely at the feet of the German because I honestly believe that he has improved drastically when compared to last season. He was dominant against Schalke, and I’m sure that many an Arsenal fan are relieved at having an aerially competent CB for a change. I actually feel that he is not a leader, and needs someone alongside him, as in right next to him, to hold his hand and whisper in his ear throughout the game. Koscielny is not this man – My view is that the Verminator of 2011/2012 would be perfect. Not one to escape this rant, Vermaelen really needs to pull his finger out for me. The Belgium is capable of better, more composed performances despite playing out of position at LB. He seems to have some sort of aura of self belief which is manifesting itself into over-confidence. You’re a good footballer Thomas, yes, but you’re no Messi, nor are you a Kieran Gibbs (the sooner Ashley Cole’s less than perfect clone returns the better in my eyes; Vermaelen shifts central, Koscielny takes a seat, organisation is restored – Simples). Perhaps he knows that Wenger’s other option is to put Andre Santos there instead. Not really a performance inducing kick up the back side is it? I’ve primarily concentrated on the suspect defending of Arsenal, largely ignoring the fine attacking play, which they have proven that they are capable of. Cazorla is a beautiful footballer. Not as beautiful as Giroud though. As Cazorla chisels through defenses, Giroud admires his cheekbones. The trio of Wilshere, Arteta and Cazorla will inevitable grow and control matches and create chances, which I feel will see Giroud bag a respectable goal tally, and silence those calling for his head after less than 20 games. Yes, he has not set the league on fire. Give the guy time. Please. This polarization of Arsenal’s line-up (Attacking Genius ~ Dodgy Defence) has made them a regular fixture in many a ‘both teams to score’ list this season, and once more they may well be for me this coming weekend. I can visualize Benteke shrugging off each and every one of the backline if given the opportunity. But equally its more than feasible to see Cazorla and Co. pulling the Villa kids around like puppets. And this is where Walcott could pop up as he does. A darting run in from the right to latch onto a through ball from any one of the aforementioned trio, before his scuffed effort finds a way into the net. Queue his post-match interview in which he will inevitably state how much he 1) loves Arsenal, 2) wants to ‘get something sorted’, and 3) really believes he can play as a striker. Maybe you can Theo, maybe you can. But in the mean time, why not just concentrate on doing what you are asked to do? It really isn’t that bad a job is it. Walcott seems like a lovely fellow. He’s comes across as well spoken and down to earth. But Arsene Wenger is a footballing genius. If he thinks you are good enough to play as a CF for Arsenal FC, you will play as CF for Arsenal FC. He clearly feels Walcott is not ready to, or is not good enough, to take this role in the side. As such an integral part of the first 11, a CF is required to link up play and be consistent in its threat. If you had to name a few of Walcott’s weaknesses as a footballer I’m sure many would say his passing / decisions / consistency. Theo has no doubt shown some levels of improvement in these areas, his crossing in particular has clearly benefitted from work in all three of these. This indicates that he is still capable of improving, so why not show some loyalty, and continue to work hard. If you’re good enough, it will come. If you’re not, Zaha will come. Maybe. Regardless, perhaps it would be better, more productive, safer, to play out wide against Villa. Other than the virtual opportunity I created for him earlier, getting munched by Villa’s very own BFG Ron Vlaar is nobodies cup of tea (Arsenal’s last trophy, Anyone?).
Ping Ping Ping is the order of the day for me. Stretch the Villa kids and the gaps will come. I promise. An Arsenal win, but they might well concede.
Sunderland v WEST BROM
No more boing boing for the Baggies…
It is possible that after Sunderland’s 3-1 win over Fulham that their goalscoring deficiencies have been eradicated. Stephen Sessegnon actually produced glimpses, not least his fine goal, of the player we know he is and Steven Fletcher continued to justify his hefty price tag. However, against 10men for the majority of the match, this should be expected of a team with the aspirations that Sunderland have. Even after Fulham lost Brede Hangeland, I still felt that they could get something out of the game, and despite this not materializing, I didn’t see enough from Sunderland in terms of controlling the game to suggest that they will be able to topple an in from West Brom this weekend.
Steve Clarke has got his side playing the kind of football that you would assume that Martin O’Neill wants his team to. Impressively, over the last couple of season the Baggies have managed to assemble a squad of players of the caliber which provide more than ample competition to the first team. For me, this is one of the primary reasons why the Midlands outfit are currently flying high. Having Odemwinge back amongst the goals is a further boost, whilst Shane Long is a constant thorn in any opposition’s side.
Recent history between the two sides definitely points towards a West Brom victory. Over the last 2 season, the Baggies have won 3 and drew one of the matches, the most recent result being a 4-0 home win. League form between the two sides also steers my betting compass towards an away win, with West Brom having 3 confidence boosting wins on the bounce, whereas Sunderland, prior to beating 10 man Fulham, had lost their previous two game.
Goals have obviously been an issue for the Black Cats this season. In their 4 home matches they have scored just 3, but equally have conceded just 3. Away from home, West Brom have score 5 and conceded 8 in their 5 games. This leads me to believe that the match won’t be a high scoring one, but if 1 side is to edge it, id opt for West Brom. So I’d recommend West Brom on the AH +0.5.
—
Addition: As it is the early kick off im sure to be watching this one, so i’ve revisited the stats for another look to see whats available.
As Sunderland have experienced major difficulties winning at home, whilst West Brom have just one away win, a draw isn’t out of the question here. I very rarely bet on draws as a result, unless its incorporated in a double chance bet. However, my suggestion of West Brom on the +0.5 AH could work alongside a draw in this one. Sunderland’s goalscoring troubles are well documented, yet they actually have the second best home defensive record in the league, having only conceded an enviable three goals. A goal shy encounter would not be a shock really, and could be worth a small stake.
MIDDLESBROUGH v Bristol City
As far as I can see, there are no statistics which would lead anyone to back Bristol…they’ll probably win.
These two sides could hardly be further apart. Boro, despite losing to Cardiff in their last match, currently occupy 3rd spot after winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their last 10 games. Bristol have drew 2 and lost 8 of their last 10. The further you look into the match the bleaker it appears to be for Bristol. In the last 3 matches between the sides, they have 1 draw and 2 defeats, one of which was a 0-4 home defeat. Then you can take a peek at the home & away records between the sides. As the home side, Middlesbrough have W6 D1 L1 this season in the league, scoring 17 and conceding 9. As the away team, Bristol have W1 D1 L6 – the complete opposite to their opponents. Within these matches they have scored a pitiful 6 goals, and conceded 13. You can only imagine what the confidence within their squad is like at the moment. The players themselves must be dreading facing a decent footballing side such as ‘Boro.
If they are to try and frustrate their opponents and try to snatch a result, the player I would note as being key to Middlesbrough’s play is Emmanuel Ledesma. When ‘Boro manager Tony Mowbray was at West Brom, he managed to get them out of this league through playing attractive, attacking football. It seems that his style of play is finally bearing fruit at the Riverside, and key to this in my eyes is Ledesma. Having only seen the guy play on the limited highlights of ‘The Football League Show’, my opinion is based upon what are essentially ‘the best bits’. But he appears to be a fine footballer, has a decent delivery, is creative but also keeps things ticking over by cycling the ball nicely. It would not surprise me to see Bristol adopt a 4-5-1 formation to try and nullify the ‘Boro midfield. I’d like to see Ishmael Miller, or former Coventry striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, start up top for ‘Boro. Both of them have a physical presence which I feel would really rattle the nerves of a clearly fragile defence. When watching the highlights of Middlesbrough’s last match, I noticed that Ledesma knew who to whip in a cross, especially from dead ball situations, which could work to a big man’s benefit.
I’m likely to go with a Boro win -1. The odds should be better than expected due to the defeat they suffered against Cardiff, even though they outplayed the eventual victors according to several reports I have read.
Sheff Weds v LEICESTER
The cheetah is the fastest land animal, capable of running at speeds of 70mph. No, actually Mr. Attenborough, it’s Lloyd Dyer.
After staying up to make sure I got to see Coventry’s five goals against Hartlepool, one thing that I notice throughout the programme was that the majority of the goals scored in the football league that weekend were aided in one way or another by some form of poor defending. It was actually unbelievable that the level of defending on show from Championship level down to League Two had been so poor. Obviously a certain percentage of goals every week will be courtesy of a defensive boo-boo, but it was glaringly obvious that a higher than normal proportion of the weekends goal tally could be attributed to this. However, due to this blatancy, those that were the culmination of fine team play or individual brilliance were also more apparent. The goal, and in fact the performance, that caught my eye was that of Leicester’s Lloyd Dyer. This guy has got some serious speed. Like, he’s really, really fast. It was this trait that alone won the penalty for Leicester’s first goal. For his own strike, Leicester 3rd which in effect killed the game, he attacked the Ipswich full back at such speed, whilst keeping the ball under close control, that the outcome was nigh on inevitable. He resembled an on form Antonio Valencia; bursting with acceleration, sustainable speed, direct and decisive plays. These attributes were utilised again for the fourth goal before sliding the ball across goal for a sitter that his colleague could not miss, and once more for the sixth. I highly recommend trying to find the highlights of the game to fully appreciate his display. Against Sheffield Wednesday I can see Dyer being pivotal in the outcome of the game. Wednesday are likely to play Lewis Buxton at RB, but as honest a player as he may be, he doesn’t have the pace to compete with that of Dyer’s. I can see him being in for a torrid time. After a 4-game winless run which has seen the Foxes drop a few places, I can see the 6-0 demolition job of Ipswich being the catalyst for a good run of form. It shouldn’t be out of the question, as before coming up against Cardiff on December 22nd they have 5 win-able games. Wednesday’s home form is unimpressive but could be worse, having won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 (10/24 points). Having scored 11 and conceded 14, its fair to say that it is their defence that has been letting them down – Blackburn currently sit in 5th place with a home record of W5 D1 L2, scoring 9 and conceding 6. A tight backline can go a long way in any league. Leicester haven’t really travelled well this year, with a record of W2 D2 L4. They have managed just 9 goals away from home, conceding 10. But the impetus of a 6-0 win should not be ignored. Confidence will be high in the away dressing room, whereas every morale sapping defeat that Wednesday suffer will inevitably eat away at the self-belief that boss Dave Jones continually tried to instill in his side by irrepressibly claiming that “there’s no team in this division better than us. They might have a bit more composure in front of goal but that’s it”. Stop it Dave, just stop it, as it would seem that there’s 20 teams currently better than you in this division; 4 wins from 17 games is fooling nobody, especially when 2 of those came way back in August. Away win, and we could see the net bulge a few times.
Bury v BOURNEMOUTH
Sometimes the grass doesn’t turn out to be greener…
Eddie Howe could be to Bournemouth, as SAF is to United. Potentially, in relative turns, at least. After 100 matches at Bournemouth, the highlight of which was promotion to League One, Howe became manager of Burnley. He saw it as an upgrade. He traded in the girl he loved for one which seemed more attractive, and for a while it went okay. But then it stalled. They didn’t click. And so he reunited with Bournemouth. Since then, Howe and Bournemouth have won 6 and drew 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions. The union just works. It’s his club.
This weekend they come up against a Bury side who are in decent form. They were on a 3 game winning run until Colchester recorded a 2-0 win against them. During this mini-run of form, they faced Portsmouth and Oldham in the League. Portsmouth had lost 4 matches on the bounce prior to their meeting, and the match after. They had just lost their Manager a few days before, so a Bury win in that match was no surprise really. Their second win, against Oldham, was a decent victory. Oldham are an inconsistent side who started shockingly but found a little purple patch prior to the loss to Bury, losing just 1 of the previous 7 fixtures. Midweek Bury picked up an important win against fellow strugglers Scunthorpe, which will grant them a confidence boost going into this match up with Bournemouth.
I’m going against recent head to head form on this, perhaps unwisely. Bury have won the last three meetings between the sides, each time by a 1 goal margin. Generally if a side has won the last 3 meetings I would steer well clear. Of the two League 1 games I’ve featured, I would say that this is not the safest of bets due to Bury’s form. However, the power of resurgence is a strong one. Bournemouth have belief, they are on a roll, have direction, and their form is good. I can see O2.5 in this match aswell, as Bournemouth have the ability to score as demonstrate in their 4-1 demolition of Oldham, whilst there has been at least 2 goals in Bury’s last 4 matches.
COVENTRY v Portsmouth
Through sky blue tinted goggles…
I very, very rarely back my supported team, Coventry City; mainly because we are generally as useful as a chocolate kettle when it comes to playing football. ‘Holding a lead’ is a phrase rarely muttered throughout the Sky Blue Army. ‘We’re playing some good football’ is equally as infrequent. But most of all, the fans have been asking to have a goalscorer, a talisman, a figure of hope, for many a year now. It would appear that under relatively new boss Mark Robins, the above dreams are becoming reality at the Ricoh. After a jaw dropping 5-0 spanking of Hartlepool, this was followed up by an equally impressive, if not more so, 3-1 away win over Colchester. Key to the recent run of form is the performances and goals of loanee David McGoldrick. I remember playing Football Manager (or CM, whichever version it was then…) about 4 or 5 years ago when he was a promising player at Southampton. As everyone knows, FM is 100% reliable for players potential (Supat Rungratsumee / Cherno Samba, anyone?). But I believed the game at this time. McGoldrick has so far failed to live up to both virtual and reality based expectations of him. Yet, for a reason unbeknown to me, he’s found both himself, and the back of the net, at CCFC. His loan deal expires in January, at which point if he doesn’t join permanently we shouldn’t be too surprised. He is clearly a step up from League 1, and if Forest don’t want him, it is almost guarantee that somebody else in the Championship will. But for now, he’s ours, and he’s playing on Sunday, and he will score. Over the last 5 games, Coventry are actually one of the form sides in the league (it’s actually true!). Quite simply, Portsmouth aren’t. Michael Appleton was doing what is known as a ‘respectable job’ at Fratton Park before he quite rightly left for job security at Blackpool. Before he left they had lost 4 on the spin, and since he left they’ve lost the next 3. They haven’t had their pants pulled down in any of these matches, but alarmingly they have only scored in 2 of them. This is why I feel Coventry could take the 3 points. If the threat against the CCFC goal is minimal, for once we can almost rely on our attackers, David McG in particular, to find the net. It’s a refreshing thought. After our goalscoring exploits recently, a hopeful Coventry -1 or +0.5 goals AH might be nice too! Don’t screw me Cov, it will hurt!
Oxford v NORTHAMPTON
Adebayo Akinfenwa is the reason why after a KFC I still believe I can turn pro…
In modern day football, it is generally expected that players are able, if not willing, to run for 90 minutes, and that they look after their physique. An exception to this is Adebayo Akinfenwa. The guy is huge, yet he has eclipsed 100 career goals. This season he has been a focal point of Northampton’s attack. After reading through a few Northampton dominated forums I’m reliable informed that the once ‘rotund’ journeyman is now pure muscle. It makes you wonder what Emile Heskey could have achieved had he got the balls and desire to drop down a league or two and stay within the English game. However, after watching a few clips of Northamptons games this season, i can see similarities with a more special player – Dimitar Berbatov (no joke…). I came across a blog titled ‘Too Fat to Play Football?’, in which a comparison is made:
It is questionable how a player so massive is able to play football. The answer can be summed up with the following quote from a Bristol Rovers forum. ” Akinfenwa doesn’t get knackered because he hardly runs around. There are players that are naturally large and there are fat and lazy players. He’s fat and lazy. If he bothered to get himself properly fit he’d be a menace higher up the leagues.” There is no denying the fact that he is on the large size. Having taken a keen interest in the striker largely due to his weight, I have noticed that his awareness and first touch are so good that they would not look out of place in the Championship. Dimitar Berbatov has been described as the master of walking football. Perhaps Akinfenwa could be seen as the lower league equivalent?
Now no-one is suggesting he is anywhere near as good as Berba. The Bulgarian appears lazy because he knows his team mates will give him the ball, and when he has it, football comes naturally. Why run if the ball will come to you? Akinfenwa doesn’t run, because he probably can’t. After listening to his recent post match interview, he sounded like he had taken a few blows to the head, outlining that he doesnt really know when he’s scored in him ramblings. Perhaps he played Rugby (he certainly has the physique for it) when he was younger and took a few blows to the head, as he sounded like he was a penny short of the pound when i listened to him. This hasn’t detracted from his performance this season though, and with this guy in form I can see Northampton getting the better of Oxford this weekend. He is the ideal striker to play away from home and with Northampton relatively difficult to score against, having conceded 25 goals all year (a respectable figure in the context of the league), I can see an away win. I wouldn’t expect a high scoring game, maybe 1-0 might be worth a shot. Oxford have been better than have been bad at home this year, but their inconsistency (W4 D2 L3) leads me to trust in recent form: Northampton – WDWWW / Oxford – WLDLD.
Aldershot v Port Vale
When you have the Pope on your side…
Earlier in the season I won various bets backing a Port Vale win with Tom Pope to score. Over the last few weeks Port Vale have gone off the boil somewhat, picking up 4 points (4 draws) out of a possible 15. However, in their last match against a struggling Bristol Rovers, Pope fired in a hat trick to guarantee his side the 3 points in a 4-0 win. Port Vale have recently confirmed that a much needed takeover has been completed, a transfer embargo lifted allowing Micky Adams to potentially bring in reinforcements. Coupled with such an emphatic victory, the feeling around the club is a buoyant one, which could lead to a positive run of results.
Aldershot go into the match in indifferent form. In their last 5 matches in all competitions they have a record of WDLDW. Picking up a win in their last game is likely to be behind why you can get decent odds on Port Vale winning this match. I think Vale a great value for a win here, especially when you look at both home/away form and head to head. At home, Aldershot have W1 D2 L6, conceding 11 and scoring a pitiful 2 goals. Away from home, Vale have W5 D2 L2, scoring 15 and conceding 9 goals. The head to head history doesn’t do Aldershot any favours either, with Port Vale winning the last 4 encounters over the last 2 seasons.
Form & the feel good factor are my reasons behind backing Port Vale. Potential side bets of Pope to score and Vale to win, Port Vale -1, and O2.5 goals could also come in here.
Summary:
Lower Confidence
1) Arsenal, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leicester, Bournemouth, Coventry, Northampton, Port Vale
Small stake accumulator, 4fold & 6fold BetVictor @ 572/1
2) Arsenal v Aston Villa – BTTS BetVictor @ 1.62/1
3) Tom Pope to score and Port Vale to win PaddyPower @ 3.1/1
4) Northampton 1-0 Win Bet365 @ 11/1
5) Sunderland v West Brom Draw / 0-0 BetVictor @ 11/1
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Medium Confidence:
1) Coventry -1 BetFred @ 3.4/1
2) Coventry +0.5 AH Bet365 @ 1.28/1
3) David McGoldrick Anytime BetVictor @ 2/1
4) West Brom +0.5 AH BetVictor @ 1.64/1
5) Middlesbrough -1 Bet365 @ 2.07/1
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High Confidence:
1) Aldershot v Port Vale O2.5 goals Bet365 @ 1.95/1
2) Port Vale -1 Ladbrokes @ 4.5/1
3) Sheff Wednesday v Leicester O2.5 Goals Coral @ 1.91/1
4) Bury v Bournemouth O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.8/1
The Soccer Surgeon 
