09 / 03 / 2013

I’ve picked out a grand total of 9 games this weekend which i fancy. I fancy a 6 game line up, and will offer the other 3 as supplements if you fancy going all out on a 9 game accumulator!

CRYSTAL PALACE v Leeds

Both of these sides are strong at home compared to their away form, so it was a simple choice to pick out Palace as potential victors in this match up. Palace have a home record of W12 D5 L1, scoring 45 and conceding 21, whilst Leeds’ home record reads W3 D6 L9, scoring 22 and conceding 31. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 33 (favours Palace). The home side go into the game on the back of an away win over Derby and a thrilling 4-2 win over high flying Hull, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. Leeds have 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 4 games, but notably the wins have come at home. They have won just 1 of their last 10 away games. Over the last few seasons Leeds have undoubtedly got the better of their opponents in the H2H battle, yet they invariably struggle when Palace are at home.

 

WATFORD v Blackpool

Watford will want to maintain their slight advantage over 3rd placed Hull in their battle for an automatic promotion spot. They face a Blackpool side who have been struggling to find any real form for some time now, winning just twice in 14 league games. Watford’s home form is decent enough, having W10 D3 L5, scoring 32 and conceding 20. Blackpool’s away record stands at W5 D5 L8, scoring 23 and conceding 28. These stats provide a home/away GD swing of 17 (favours Watford). Recent form indicates a home win here, with Watford being unbeaten in 7, winning 5 and drawing 2 of those games, whilst winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5 home games. Blackpool go into this match having won just 2 of their last 9 away games, losing 4 and drawing 3 of them.  Blackpool won this fixture last season, whilst drawing when at home. So far this season the two sides played out a 2-2 draw. Overall Blackpool edge the head to head stats, yet I feel they have regressed this season, and in Paul Ince they have a manager who is yet to prove himself or his abilities, whereas Watford look like sustaining their attacking, effective football.

 

NORTHAMPTON v Accrington

After losing in their last game to play off competitors Exeter, Northampton will want to pick up the 3 points against lowly Accrington in order to reaffirm their promotion credentials. They have a strong home record to build on having W12 D2 L3, scoring 35 and conceding 14. Prior to last weekend’s defeat they had gone unbeaten in 5, winning 4 of them games, so they are in pretty good form. Having won their last 7 home games, banging in 14 goals in the process, they will be full of confidence. The Accrington side that they face have done well recently, picking up 5 points from their last 3 games to boost their survival hopes. Yet this should not mask the fact that they have just 2 wins in 10 games. Away from home their record is actually comparable to sides who find themselves higher up the division having W5 D4 L9, scoring 20 and conceding 30. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 31 (favours Northampton). Despite their commendable away form for a side in 22^nd position, they have actually managed just 1 win in their last 9 away games, losing 7 and drawing 1. In the head to heads between the sides, the 7 meeting thus far between the sides have seen Northampton win 3, draw 2, and 2 Accrington wins. These fixtures date from 2012-2009, and it is worth noting that Northampton are unbeaten at home.  This is how I see it remaining.

ROTHERHAM v Dagenham & Redbridge

Other than in another purple patch back in October, Rotherham have not experienced a solid run of good results this season until recent weeks where they have gone unbeaten in 6, winning 4 of the games. This run has seen them move up the table and are now in contention for an automatic promotion spot. At home, the statistics of W10 D1 L7, scoring 34 and conceding 25, indicates that they are quite hit and miss, so it is worth paying close attention to their opponents form. Dagenham have been on a poor run, winning just 2 of their last 10 games, and are now winless in 4. Away from home their stats read as W4 D5 L9, scoring 23 and conceding 30. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 16 (favours Rotherham). They are winless in their last 5 away games, a run which includes 2 draws and 3 defeats. The overall recent form of the two sides is strongly in favour of Rotherham, who have achieved a 6 game run of WWWDDW, whilst Dagenham have DWLLDL. Dagenham have a 6 point cushion over the relegation zone, whilst Rotherham have looking to kick on and get promoted and will see this as a winnable game. The last 6 H2H encounters between the sides have seen it end even at 3 wins apiece. However, it seem the home side generally comes out on top, which is how I see it going this weekend.

MANSFIELD v Stockport

Stockport need to win this game to give themselves some room to breathe from the chasing pack of relegation candidates, yet their recent form has only indicated that they may not have what it takes. Unfortunately for them they travel to a Mansfield side who have the added drive to win from both maintaining their place in the play off zone from those trying to overtake them, whilst still harbouring hopes of top spot should they continue their fine run of form. At home Mansfield have a great record of W11 D3 L3, scoring 38 and conceding just 15. Stockport’s away record reads as W3 D7 L6, scoring just 15 and conceding 24. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 32 (favours Mansfield). Recent form going into the match indicates Mansfield should triumph given that they have achieved WWWWW whilst Stockport have struggled, recording DLLLD. The H2H’s from this season and last also sits in favour of Mansfield, with them having won all 3 of the games, including a 1-3 away win earlier in January. This should be a straightforward win.

Ebbsfleet v NEWPORT

This is the anomaly of my selections, with me backing the away side! As a firm believer in the advantage that playing at home can give a team i try to steer clear of away sides, but this one looks a banker to me. Ebbsfleet’s home record stands at W4 D8 L5, scoring 23 and conceding 28. They face a high flying Newport side who have the enviable away record of W10 D1 L4, scoring 35 and conceding 25. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 15 (favours Newport). Recent form going into the game looks simple really, not just for the results though. Ebbsfleet have a 5 game record of DWLLL, whilst Newport’s reads as WWWWW. Tellingly, Newport have recently recorded wins against Hyde and Telford, both of whom are on similar points as Ebbsfleet, whilst also winning against Woking and Mansfield, who are doing well this season. They really seem on the ball. Ebbsfleet however, have not. The 3 games they have lost in a row have been against Grimsby, Kidderminster, and Wrexham. All 3 are teams battling with Newport for play offs and automatic promotion places. In these 3 games Ebbsfleet have conceded 10 goals in total. It seems they are just not as good as the top sides.

Betting Summary

Supplement Games

NOTTM FOREST v Wolves

It wouldn’t surprise me if Billy Davies managed to sneak Forest into the play offs in the remaining games in the season. Forest have now won 4 on the bounce and will be in a buoyant mood before this game. Their home record reads as W9 D5 L4, scoring 29 and conceding 21, whilst they have lost just 1 of the last 7 at home in the league. Wolves are really struggling. Their players haven’t gelled at all this season, nor have they performed. There is a real lack of confidence and belief in the squad. Their away form currently stands at W6 D2 L10, scoring 20 and conceding 23. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 11 (favours Forest). Wolves have won just 2 in their last 8 away games, in their midweek game at a struggling Millwall and then way back in December 2012. This season Forest have already bettered Wolves when playing at Molineux, running out 1-2 winners. They now appear to be a more settled, effective team under Davies, and I expect them to do a job on Wolves this weekend.

SHEFF UTD v MK Dons

Despite MK Dons beating table toppers Doncaster 3-0 in midweek, I still believe Sheff Utd will edge this one. The Blades have a strong home record to build on, which currently stands at W7 D7 L3, scoring 27 and conceding 17. Their opponents, MK Dons, have an away record which is the key reason behind their mid table position, as it currently reads as W4 L7 D6, scoring 20 and conceding 20. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 10 (favours Sheff Utd). Going into the game, Sheffield United have hit a fine run of form, being unbeaten in 6, winning 5 of these games. MK Dons had lost 3 on the spin, followed by 4 draws on the bounce prior to their midweek win of Doncaster. The MK Dons are winless in their last 5 away games, and I can see Sheff Utd prolonging this run despite the fact that they beat Sheff United in the last 2 matches between the sides. Both of these games were when MK Dons were at home, but interestingly when Sheff Utd were at home, it was them who were the victors. Home win for me here.

GILLINGHAM v Plymouth

Gillingham’s last two games have seen them stutter somewhat, losing against Oxford and then drawing against Aldershot. Despite this they maintain an above average home record of W8 D4 L6, scoring 30 and conceding 18. They face a Plymouth side who are poor away from home, having W3 D6 L8, scoring 16 and conceding 24. These stats give us  a home/away GD swing of 20 (favours Gillingham). Going into this game, Gillingham, as previously mentioned, are on a relatively poor run of form. However, prior to those two games they had won 3 of 4. Plymouths last two games have given them a real chance of survival after seeing them pick up 4 points from games against fellow strugglers Wimbledon and Barnet. The last 2 seasons have seen Gillingham remain unbeaten against Plymouth, winning 2 games last season along with a 2-2 draw earlier in this campaign. In fact, you have to go back to 2004 for the last time Plymouth beat Gillingham. I expect this weekend’s game to add to that long wait.

9 Game Accumulator

Alternative Bets

Goals Galore

Value Double

05 / 03 / 2013

Just a short outline of the stats which lead me to back the indicated teams in this set of mid-week fixtures from the English divisions.

CARDIFF v Derby

Cardiff home form – W13 D1 L2, Scored 27 & Conceded 11

Derby away form – W3 D4 L10, Scored 16 & Conceded 30

Home / Away GD Swing – 30 (Favours Cardiff)

Cardiff recent form (5 Games) – DWLWL

Derby recent form (5 Games) – LDDLL

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Cardiff Wins = 4   Draws = 1   Derby Wins = 0

NOTTM FOREST v Ipswich

Nottm Forest home form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 28 & Conceded 21

Ipswich away form – W5 D4 L8, Scored 12 & Conceded 30

Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Nottm Forest)

Nottm Forest recent form (5 Games) – LDWWW

Ipswich recent form (5 Games) – LWLDW

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Nottm Forest Wins = 4   Draws = 0   Ipswich Wins = 1

MK Dons v DONCASTER

MK Dons home form – W8 D4 L4, Scored 23 & Conceded 17

Doncaster away form –W11 D4 L2, Scored 28 & Conceded 13

Home / Away GD Swing – 9 (Favours Doncaster)

MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LDDDD

Doncaster recent form (5 Games) – DDDWW

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – MK Dons Wins = 0   Draws = 1   Doncaster Wins = 0

Stevenage v BRENTFORD

Stevenage home form – W4 D5 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 29

Brentford away form – W6 D7 L3, Scored 19 & Conceded 16

Home / Away GD Swing – 12 (Favours Brentford)

Stevenage recent form (5 Games) – LLLLL

Brentford recent form (5 Games) – DWDWW

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Stevenage Wins = 2   Draws = 0   Brentford Wins = 2

Gateshead v KIDDERMINSTER

Gateshead home form – W4 D5 L4, Scored 16 & Conceded 13

Kidderminster away form – W8 D5 L4, Scored 21 & Conceded 11

Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Kidderminster)

Gateshead recent form (5 Games) – LLLWL

Kidderminster recent form (5 Games) – WWWWW

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gateshead Wins = 2   Draws = 2   Kidderminster Wins = 1

WREXHAM v Ebbsfleet

Wrexham home form – W8 D2 L2, Scored 36 & Conceded 19

Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L10, Scored 20 & Conceded 35

Home / Away GD Swing – 32 (Favours Wrexham)

Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD

Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – WDWLL

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Wrexham Wins = 3   Draws = 2   Ebbsfleet Wins = 0

Betting Summary

02 / 03 / 2013

MAN UTD v Norwich

This is a no brainer for me. United have a almost perfect home record of W12 D0 L1, with the defeat coming way back in September in a 2-3 defeat to Tottenham, whilst they have scored 34 goals and conceded just 15 at home. Norwich’s away record is poor, having W1 D1 L6, scoring 11 and conceding 26. This stats represent a home/away GD swing of 34 (favours United).

Recent form going into this game could not be much better for United, having won 4 on the bounce, 8 of the last 10, whilst being unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions. Norwich have picked up some valuable points over the last few weeks which has given them some breathing space from the relegation zone. Last week’s win over Everton will have boosted their confidence, but I still feel that away from home they will struggle. Despite managing to actually defeat United earlier in the season 1-0, last season United did the double and I fully expect them to pick up the 3 points on Saturday which will edge them ever closer to the title.

 

BRIGHTON v Huddersfield

The last couple of weeks have seen Brighton pick up 10/12 points against top half of the table teams, reinforcing their credentials for a play of spot. Furthermore, in this period they have beaten both Hull & Cardiff who themselves look shoe-ins for the play offs and automatic promotion respectively.

Going into this game Brighton will surely fancy themselves, having achieved a home record of W7 D7 L3, scored 23 and conceded 14. Their opponents, Huddersfield, have not lost in 2 games now as they look to move away from the relegation dogfight. Away from home their record is less than impressive having W5 D3 L9, scoring 16 and conceding 38. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 31 (favours Brighton).

Brighton have beaten their opponents already this season, and despite Huddersfield doing the double over Brighton last season, due to Huddersfield’s poor defensive away record, I can see Brighton snatching this one.

 

Oldham v SHEFF UTD

It took some thinking for me to opt for this game, primarily due to Oldham’s good form. However, despite Oldham winning 3 on the bounce, they face a Sheff Utd side who have gone 5 unbeaten, winning 4 before a midweek draw with Leyton Orient. Of the 3 games that Oldham have won recently, 2 of them were home games against MK Dons, who are now winless in 7, and a Portsmouth side in freefall. Sheff Utd meanwhile have 3 away games in succession recently, beating struggling Bury and Shrewsbury sides, but notable defeating a good quality Bournemouth side. Another point is that i believe Oldham’s recent revival of sorts owes partly to the positive vibe the FA Cup had provided the club, with much needed funds and excitement in what had otherwise been a doom and gloom season. Now that their FA Cup bubble has burst, it would not surprise me should they experience a slump.

The Sheffield side have a solid away record, having W9 D6 L2, scoring 21 and conceding 12. Oldham’s home record is below par having W5 D3 L8, scoring 17 and conceding 19. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 11 (favours Sheff Utd). I don’t envisage there being many goals in this one, but am backing Sheff Utd to edge it.

KIDDERMINSTER v Ebbsfleet

Its 2^nd versus 23^rd in this match up, with Kidderminster looking to keep pace with table toppers Wrexham. There appears to be a gulf in class in the Conference this season, with Kidderminster being one the sides who have been impressive both home & away. At home this season they have a record of W10 D3 L4, scoring 31 and conceding 14. They face an Ebbsfleet side who have faced difficulties on their travels this season, producing a record of W3 D2 L9, scoring just 18 and conceding 31. These stats represent a home/away GD swing of 30 (favours Kidderminster).

Recent form points to the direction of Kidderminster in terms of winning this tie, with the home side winning 6 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10 games. Ebbsfleet’s recent form is less impressive, yet not too shabby. There recent 5 game record reads as LWDWL. Perhaps relevant to this game is the fact that they lost to Grimsby in midweek 3-1, this being a Grimsby side who are going toe-to-toe with Kidderminster this season. The distance that the Ebbsfleet side travelled in midweek, combined with another journey on Saturday may have a negative effect on the side.

Interestingly over the last 3 season, in which there have been 5 games, the sides have been inseparable, drawing all of the matches. Despite this I expect nothing less than a home win.

MANSFIELD v Telford

Mansfield face Telford in this encounter, and as we near the business end of the season I expect the promotion chases to secure 3 points against this Telford side who are rooted firmly to the bottom of the table. They should be full of confidence this weekend having won 4 on the bounce and 8 of the last 10. Their home record stands at W10 D3 L3, scoring 37 and scoring 15. Their opponents this weekend have struggled away from home, producing a record of miserable reading: W3 D7 L7, scoring 22 and conceding 25, culminating in a home/away GD swing of 22 (favours Mansfield). Their recent form is awful, losing 5 on the bounce and 7 of the last 10, as well as being winless in the last 17 games in all competitions. The last 3 games between the sides have ended with draws but again, I can see a home win here.

WREXHAM v Alfreton

Yet another top end side at home in the Conference here, and again im backing them to pick up the 3 points against a team who have been in a slow, yet gradual slide down the table since the beginning of December. At home Wrexham have a record to be proud of – W8 D5 L2, scoring 35 and conceding 18. Alfreton have actually got a fairly decent away record of W6 D5 L7, scoring 23 and conceding 29. These stats give us a home/away GD swing of 23 (favours Wrexham). One worry I do have is that earlier in the season Alfreton beat Wrexham when away from home 2-4, but Nethertheless I would be surprised if Wrexham were unable to win this tie.

WOKING v Lincoln

 Yet another Conference match I’m backing here, and once again another home team who I feel will benefit from the advantage that this brings. Woking still harbor hopes of clinching a play off spot, and despite being 12 points behind 6^th place currently, they have been in fine form of late and it is their ambition that is also should see them through this game as victors. Their home form has being up there with the best in the league, having W10 D1 L5, scoring 32 and conceding 23. Woking go into the match on the back of two victories, first against a mid table Southport and then against play off contenders Forest Green. Beating Forest Green indicates that Woking have the quality to reach the play off zone, and should be capable of beating opponents such as Lincoln. This Lincoln side have won just once in their last ten games, and lost 3 of the last 4. They are out of form and are in real danger of relegation. Their away form reads as W3 D5 L7, scoring 20 and conceding 26. These stats provide us with a home/away GD swing of 15 (favours Woking). Earlier in the season, Woking beat Lincoln 0-2 away from home, and I would expect a similar result here.

Betting Summary

Best Odds as of 01/03/2013 with BetVictor

26 / 02 / 2013

After landing an 8-game accumulator at the weekend, i’m taking a chance with these midweek fixtures by backing 9 games on the 4-fold & 5-fold, with a small stake on the accumulator.

League One

Colchester v YEOVIL

Colchester home form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 20 & Conceded 25

Yeovil away form – W8 D2 L6, Scored 26 & Conceded 24

Home / Away GD Swing – 7 (Favours Yeovil)

Colchester recent form (5 Games) – WLWLL

Yeovil recent form (5 Games) – WWWWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Yeovil Wins = 4   Draws = 2   Colchester Wins = 0

* I think both teams could score here, but Yeovil should edge it, as the H2H record suggests. 2-1 would be no surprise.

Portsmouth v MK DONS

Portsmouth home form – W3 D3 L11, Scored 18 & Conceded 26

MK Dons away form – W4 D6 L6, Scored 19 & Conceded 19

Home / Away GD Swing – 8 (Favours MK Dons)

Portsmouth recent form (5 Games) – LLDDL

MK Dons recent form (5 Games) – LLLDD

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Portsmouth Wins = 0   Draws = 1   MK Dons Wins = 0

* Despite MK Dons being in poor form themselves, I feel they have been underperforming. Against a Pompey side in freefall they should gain a win.

SHEFF UTD v Leyton Orient

Sheff Utd home form –  W7 D6 L3, Scored 27 & Conceded 17

Leyton Orient away form – W6 D2 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 23

Home / Away GD Swing – 15 (Favours Sheff Utd)

Sheff Utd recent form (5 Games) – LWWWW

Leyton Orient recent form (5 Games) – DWWLL

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Sheff Utd Wins = 2   Draws = 1   Leyton Orient Wins = 0

* Sheff Utd have put together a strong run of form over the last few weeks to reignite their promotion hopes. They edged out the last encounter 0-1 away from home and I see them winning this encounter on home soil too.

SWINDON v Bury

Swindon home form – W7 D6 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 10

Bury away form – W2 D7 L8, Scored 18 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 35 (Favours Swindon)

Swindon recent form (5 Games) – DWDWD

Bury recent form (5 Games) – WDLLL

Head to Head (1 Seasons) – Swindon Wins = 1   Draws = 0   Bury Wins = 0

* Despite not having Di Canio at the helm, Swindon maintained their 13 game unbeaten run last weekend, drawing 1-1 with Preston. I think against a poor Bury side who have lost 3 on the bounce they will pick up the win, perhaps with a clean sheet.

League Two

GILLINGHAM v Oxford

Gillingham home form – W8 D4 L5, Scored 30 & Conceded 17

Oxford away form –  W6 D2 L9, Scored 21 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 21 (Favours Gillingham)

Gillingham recent form (5 Games) – LWDWW

Oxford recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 2   Draws = 3   Oxford Wins = 0

* Gillingham have lost just 2 in 10, and go into this on the back of 2 wins, whilst Oxford have recently turned around a poor run with a Win and a Draw. Oxford have struggled against Gillingham over recent seasons and I expect the same in this game. Over 2.5 Goals would be my side bet in this game.

NORTHAMPTON v Bristol Rovers

Northampton home form – W12 D2 L3, Scored 34 & Conceded 14

Bristol Rovers away form –  W4 D6 L7, Scored 20 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 29 (Favours Northampton)

Northampton recent form (5 Games) – LWWDW

Bristol Rovers recent form (5 Games) – DWWLD

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Gillingham Wins = 1   Draws = 0   Oxford Wins = 2

* Northampton’s home record is sublime, whilst their opponents away record is below par. Despite Bristol winning in terms of H2H, the strength of Northampton at home sways this for me.

BURTON v Morecambe

Burton home form – W12 D3 L2, Scored 37 & Conceded 17

Morecambe away form – W6 D3 L8, Scored 22 & Conceded 22

Home / Away GD Swing – 20 (Favours Burton)

Burton recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW

Morecambe recent form (5 Games) – WDWWD

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Burton Wins = 2   Draws = 2   Morecambe Wins = 1

* This will be a close game for me, which leads me to think Draw No Bet or Burton +0 on the Asian Handicap will be a better option. Morecambe have been in decent form, yet I believe home advantage and the GD record has the ability to provide the decisive factor in this game.

Conference Premier

GRIMSBY v Ebbsfleet

Grimsby home form – W11 D3 L3, Scored 33 & Conceded 12

Ebbsfleet away form – W3 D2 L8, Scored 17 & Conceded 29

Home / Away GD Swing – 33 (Favours Grimsby)

Grimsby recent form (5 Games) – WDWWL

Ebbsfleet recent form (5 Games) – LLWDW

Head to Head (2 Seasons) – Grimsby Wins = 1   Draws = 1   Ebbsfleet Wins = 1

* Promotion chasing Grimsby host relegation battling Ebbsfleet here. A solid home side faces up against a struggling away team, and despite Ebbsfleet improving of late, I see Grimsby being relatively easy winners here. If they were to cover the -1 handicap I would not be surprised.

Barrow v WREXHAM

Barrow home form – W3 D5 L7, Scored 15 & Conceded 25

Wrexham away form – W9 D5 L3, Scored 25 & Conceded 13

Home / Away GD Swing – 22 (Favours Wrexham)

Barrow recent form (5 Games) – LLLWD

Wrexham recent form (5 Games) – DDWWW

Head to Head (3 Seasons) – Barrow Wins = 1   Draws = 1   Wrexham Wins = 3

* Table toppers Wrexham visit relegation threatened Barrow in what should be a relatively straight forward victory. They have a solid away form to build on, and have not faced much trouble against Barrow over recent seasons.

Betting Summary

Extra

FA Cup

EVERTON v Oldham

Might not be placing a bet on this game but have taken an interest in it nonetheless. Having played Saturday – Tuesday – Saturday – Tuesday, I feel that weary legs could prove to be Oldham’s undoing in this game. Everton boss David Moyes will be looking, and expecting, and immediate reaction from his side after the weekend’s late loss to Norwich. Oldham have been poor away from home this year, with a record of W5 D3 L9, scoring 18 and conceding 27, whereas Everton are solid enough at home with a record of W8 D3 L3, scoring 22 and conceding 16, to comfortable, in theory, win this. There is little value in backing Everton outright, so I’m envisaging that the -1 handicap should be covered should you fancy a punt.

Odds – 1.53