06 / 08 / 2013 Capital One Cup: Round 1
Bristol Rovers v WATFORD
If as expected Bristol Rovers face Championship side Watford in the first round of the Capital One Cup without nine first-team players because of injury, their bench will be a mirror image of that from last Saturday’s defeat against Exeter in League Two where it was entirely made up of U20’s players.
Momentum is on the side of Watford having enjoyed a great pre-season made up of 4 (W3, D1) games, whilst Bristol Rovers had an average warm up prior to the season made up of 3 games (W1, D1, L1). The extra game that Watford have under their belts, coupled with the boost of being in winning form, should see them enter this tie against a depleted, perhaps tired / leggy side full of confidence.
History shows that Bristol Rovers have not kept a clean sheet in 16 League Cup ties over 12 years, whilst The Hornets have scored in 14 successive games at Bristol Rovers in all competitions. The likelihood of Watford scoring once is high, and i feel comfortable in backing them with a handicap.
MIDDLESBROUGH v Accrington
Middlesbrough have won 10 and lost just two of their last 14 home matches in this competition, whilst their opponents
- Accrington have lost six of their last eight matches in the League Cup, winning just two.
- Middlesbrough had a decent pre season, picking up wins against Morecombe, Rotherham and Bordeaux. Defeating Morecombe, who are in the same league as Accrington, by two goals to nil gives some indication of the class difference of the sides, although a pre season game can not be relied on for an accurate analysis base.
Despite losing their first league game of the season against Leicester, ‘Boro will still fancy themselves in this one, and with offers reportedly being made for Adomah of Bristol City and McCormack of Leeds, the ‘Boro attackers will want to impress tonight.
NOTTM FOREST v Hartlepool
Former Forest old boy Colin Cooper takes his Hartlepool side to Nottingham tonight looking to bounce back from a heavy 3-0 defeat on the opening day of the season to Rochdale. After reading his comments on the BBC website, he doesn’t sound too optimistic about the next few weeks saying it will take some time for his side to improve. They face a Forest side who picked up 3 points against Huddersfield at the weekend and will seek to build on that victory with a cup win to generate some momentum. Forest had an expansive pre season consisting of 6 games, of which they won 2 and drew 4. I feel confident that whichever side they field tonight, the players will be ready for a full 90 minutes courtesy of preseason rotation. Hartlepool played 4 preseason games losing 2. Home advantage should see Forest proceed to Round 2 tonight.
Exeter v QPR
I doubt Exeter really expect to progress in this competition as League Two survival is likely to be their focus this season. Their opponents QPR probably fancy a cup run as they have maintained a strong looking squad, with some decent additions that have provided them with enough depth to be able to alter their line up and sustain a strong starting 11. Team news regarding QPR indicates that Charlie Austin may make his full debut, whilst Wright-Phillips and Jenas could start.
I fully expect QPR to be too strong in this tie.
16 / 02 / 2013
CRYSTAL PALACE v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have lost their last 5 away games, with their last away victory coming way back on the 8th December 2012! Crystal Palace go into this game on a 15 game unbeaten home run, losing their first game of the season to Watford all the way back on the 18th August 2012. Palace’s home form has been unbelievable this season, winning 9, drawing 5 & losing just 1, scoring 35 (avg 2.3) and conceding 17 goals (avg 1.1). Middlesbrough’s away form is the key reason as to why they are not in the automatic promotion places. They have played 15, won 5, draw 1, and lost 9. They have scored 18 goals (avg 1.2) and conceded 27 (avg 1.8).
Due to the close proximity of the sides in the league table, with Palace sitting in 5th whilst Middlesbrough are in 6th, there is value in this bet. For that reason, I may place Palace as a draw no bet, retaining value but offering more safety, especially considering their home form.
HULL v Charlton
Hull have a solid home record of W9 D2 L4, scoring 23 and conceding 15. They face a Charlton side who have been inconsistent away from home this season, with a record of W6 D4 L5, scoring 20 and conceding 19. The home/away GD swing is 9.
Hull go into the match having won their previous game against Derby 2-1, whilst Charlton will be looking build on a 1-1 draw against Birmingham. The only recent form to go by is the match between the two sides earlier in the season, although this ended 0-0.
The main reasons I am backing Hull are their home form, and the fact that it is beginning to get to that time of the season where those who are serious about promotion will be looking to get a good run going.
YEOVIL v Scunthorpe
Both Yeovil & Scunthorpe have been in decent form recently. Yeovil have won 5 on the bounce, & 8 of their last 10. Scunthorpe have won 3 in a row. As the home side this season, Yeovil have a record of W9 D2 L5, scoring 27 (avg 1.7) and conceding 17 (avg 1). Scunthorpe, when away from home, have a record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 16 (avg 1) and conceding 24 (avg 1.5). In the head to head between the two sides, recent history as a whole indicates that Scunthorpe have the upper hand, yet in the reverse fixture this season, Yeovil ran out the winners by 4 unanswered goals. Yeovil have a striker who has found his scoring boots this season in Paddy Madden (16), whilst Scunthorpe have no major striking threat after the departure of Leon Clarke who remains their top scorer (11) despite leaving at the end of 2012, meaning Karl Hawley (7) is their top scorer at the club.
Odds of around 2.05 mean we could place Yeovil/Draw or draw no bet and still have relatively decent odds.
Preston v BOURNEMOUTH
Graham Westley was sacked as manager of Preston earlier in the week, leaving a squad which is very much his design to try and rescue what will inevitably be a disappointing season. Being leaderless will only hamper their chances of picking up points against a Bournemouth side who have fully bought into their manager, Eddie Howe. He has led them to the league summit, and his side have enough quality to maintain their promotion push.
At home this season Preston have a record of W3 D7 L6, scoring 20 and conceding 21. Bournemouth have an away record of W7 D4 L5, scoring 26 and conceding 27. Now evidently Bournemouth’s away record is one to spout superlatives about, but they have won their last 3 away games in a row, contributing to their 5 game winning run, whilst Preston are winless in their last 6 home matches.
The head to heads between the sides offers us 3 recent games to look at, and it indicates that Bournemouth have the upper hand with 2 wins & 1 draw.
CHELTENHAM v Aldershot
Cheltenham tackle Aldershot this weekend, going into the game in indifferent form. Over the last 5 games they have a record DWDLW. Fortunately for the home side their opponents have a record of DLDLL. Cheltenham’s home form is the reason they currently find themselves sitting in 3rd place in the league, having W9 D5 L2, scoring 25 and conceding 14. Aldershot are in fact better away from home, having W4 D4 L6, scoring 15 and conceding 22. Despite this, there is a notable 18 goal swing in the home/away GD. Over the last 3 seasons, the H2H record between the two sides is even, with both sides having won 3 games each. However, Cheltenham have already beaten Aldershot this season 1-0 when away from home, and last season won the home match 2-0.
Again, due to the availability of odds of around 1.95 we could place Cheltenham/Draw or draw no bet and still have odds which add value to the betting slip.
PORT VALE v Morecambe
Both sides are in decent form in this one, with Port Vale having a 5 game record of WDWWD, whilst Morecambe have a record of DWWLW. The home/away record offers some indication of how this game could go, with Port Vale having a home record of W8 D4 L3, scoring 36 & conceding 15, whilst Morecambe having an away record of W5 D3 L8, scoring 21 & conceding 22. There is a 22 goals swing in the home/away GD comparison.
In their last 3 home games Port Vale have scored 10 goals and conceded 0. In Morecambe’s last 3 away games they have scored 7 and conceded 4. I feel Port Vale will be too strong for their opponents here, using the home crowd to their advantage.
Bet Summary:
Bet 1: – Teams to Win (Best with BetVictor)
Bet 2: – Draw No Bets (Best with William Hill)
Alternative Bets:
Good Luck Everybody!!!
24 / 11 / 2012
Aston Villa v ARSENAL
‘What a weird player Walcott is, an infuriating mix of the unplayable and the unfathomable’.
In the Guardians coverage of the North London derby last weekend, they used the above quote to aptly describe Theo Walcott. However, the same notion can also be used to illustrate the maddening reality of the Gunners inability to produce a display in which they control and dominate a game without it being littered with silly mistakes. Against Spurs the scoreline would suggest they deserved the result, which I can’t argue they did. However, prior to Adebayor reducing the game to little more than a contest, and on a few occasions post-sending off, the Arsenal backline was noticeably positional inept. Whether this was down to Vermaelen playing at LB as opposed to centrally, or due to Mertesacker being slower than a wet weekend, is debatable. Koscielny’s awareness does rescue the Gunners when the beanpole Germans deficiencies (Yes, German’s do have deficiencies) rear their ugly head. If big Per wants to learn about the importance of positioning I’d recommend having a quick read of Sun Tzu’s: The Art of War. The ancient Chinese military strategist outlines how positional awareness gives you a framework for understanding your strategic position. It also enables you to see your position as part of a larger environment surrounded by other positions. You can understand which aspects of your position are secure and which are the most dynamic and likely to change. Mertesacker sometimes seems oblivious to the location of his team-mates in relation to his own, which leads to attacks running in behind and offside traps being pointless. I can imagine one Pascal Cygan sitting in a French villa somewhere chuckling to himself as he watches with bemusement as his version 2.0 struggles in the manner he became known for. But I can’t lay the blame solely at the feet of the German because I honestly believe that he has improved drastically when compared to last season. He was dominant against Schalke, and I’m sure that many an Arsenal fan are relieved at having an aerially competent CB for a change. I actually feel that he is not a leader, and needs someone alongside him, as in right next to him, to hold his hand and whisper in his ear throughout the game. Koscielny is not this man – My view is that the Verminator of 2011/2012 would be perfect. Not one to escape this rant, Vermaelen really needs to pull his finger out for me. The Belgium is capable of better, more composed performances despite playing out of position at LB. He seems to have some sort of aura of self belief which is manifesting itself into over-confidence. You’re a good footballer Thomas, yes, but you’re no Messi, nor are you a Kieran Gibbs (the sooner Ashley Cole’s less than perfect clone returns the better in my eyes; Vermaelen shifts central, Koscielny takes a seat, organisation is restored – Simples). Perhaps he knows that Wenger’s other option is to put Andre Santos there instead. Not really a performance inducing kick up the back side is it? I’ve primarily concentrated on the suspect defending of Arsenal, largely ignoring the fine attacking play, which they have proven that they are capable of. Cazorla is a beautiful footballer. Not as beautiful as Giroud though. As Cazorla chisels through defenses, Giroud admires his cheekbones. The trio of Wilshere, Arteta and Cazorla will inevitable grow and control matches and create chances, which I feel will see Giroud bag a respectable goal tally, and silence those calling for his head after less than 20 games. Yes, he has not set the league on fire. Give the guy time. Please. This polarization of Arsenal’s line-up (Attacking Genius ~ Dodgy Defence) has made them a regular fixture in many a ‘both teams to score’ list this season, and once more they may well be for me this coming weekend. I can visualize Benteke shrugging off each and every one of the backline if given the opportunity. But equally its more than feasible to see Cazorla and Co. pulling the Villa kids around like puppets. And this is where Walcott could pop up as he does. A darting run in from the right to latch onto a through ball from any one of the aforementioned trio, before his scuffed effort finds a way into the net. Queue his post-match interview in which he will inevitably state how much he 1) loves Arsenal, 2) wants to ‘get something sorted’, and 3) really believes he can play as a striker. Maybe you can Theo, maybe you can. But in the mean time, why not just concentrate on doing what you are asked to do? It really isn’t that bad a job is it. Walcott seems like a lovely fellow. He’s comes across as well spoken and down to earth. But Arsene Wenger is a footballing genius. If he thinks you are good enough to play as a CF for Arsenal FC, you will play as CF for Arsenal FC. He clearly feels Walcott is not ready to, or is not good enough, to take this role in the side. As such an integral part of the first 11, a CF is required to link up play and be consistent in its threat. If you had to name a few of Walcott’s weaknesses as a footballer I’m sure many would say his passing / decisions / consistency. Theo has no doubt shown some levels of improvement in these areas, his crossing in particular has clearly benefitted from work in all three of these. This indicates that he is still capable of improving, so why not show some loyalty, and continue to work hard. If you’re good enough, it will come. If you’re not, Zaha will come. Maybe. Regardless, perhaps it would be better, more productive, safer, to play out wide against Villa. Other than the virtual opportunity I created for him earlier, getting munched by Villa’s very own BFG Ron Vlaar is nobodies cup of tea (Arsenal’s last trophy, Anyone?).
Ping Ping Ping is the order of the day for me. Stretch the Villa kids and the gaps will come. I promise. An Arsenal win, but they might well concede.
Sunderland v WEST BROM
No more boing boing for the Baggies…
It is possible that after Sunderland’s 3-1 win over Fulham that their goalscoring deficiencies have been eradicated. Stephen Sessegnon actually produced glimpses, not least his fine goal, of the player we know he is and Steven Fletcher continued to justify his hefty price tag. However, against 10men for the majority of the match, this should be expected of a team with the aspirations that Sunderland have. Even after Fulham lost Brede Hangeland, I still felt that they could get something out of the game, and despite this not materializing, I didn’t see enough from Sunderland in terms of controlling the game to suggest that they will be able to topple an in from West Brom this weekend.
Steve Clarke has got his side playing the kind of football that you would assume that Martin O’Neill wants his team to. Impressively, over the last couple of season the Baggies have managed to assemble a squad of players of the caliber which provide more than ample competition to the first team. For me, this is one of the primary reasons why the Midlands outfit are currently flying high. Having Odemwinge back amongst the goals is a further boost, whilst Shane Long is a constant thorn in any opposition’s side.
Recent history between the two sides definitely points towards a West Brom victory. Over the last 2 season, the Baggies have won 3 and drew one of the matches, the most recent result being a 4-0 home win. League form between the two sides also steers my betting compass towards an away win, with West Brom having 3 confidence boosting wins on the bounce, whereas Sunderland, prior to beating 10 man Fulham, had lost their previous two game.
Goals have obviously been an issue for the Black Cats this season. In their 4 home matches they have scored just 3, but equally have conceded just 3. Away from home, West Brom have score 5 and conceded 8 in their 5 games. This leads me to believe that the match won’t be a high scoring one, but if 1 side is to edge it, id opt for West Brom. So I’d recommend West Brom on the AH +0.5.
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Addition: As it is the early kick off im sure to be watching this one, so i’ve revisited the stats for another look to see whats available.
As Sunderland have experienced major difficulties winning at home, whilst West Brom have just one away win, a draw isn’t out of the question here. I very rarely bet on draws as a result, unless its incorporated in a double chance bet. However, my suggestion of West Brom on the +0.5 AH could work alongside a draw in this one. Sunderland’s goalscoring troubles are well documented, yet they actually have the second best home defensive record in the league, having only conceded an enviable three goals. A goal shy encounter would not be a shock really, and could be worth a small stake.
MIDDLESBROUGH v Bristol City
As far as I can see, there are no statistics which would lead anyone to back Bristol…they’ll probably win.
These two sides could hardly be further apart. Boro, despite losing to Cardiff in their last match, currently occupy 3rd spot after winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their last 10 games. Bristol have drew 2 and lost 8 of their last 10. The further you look into the match the bleaker it appears to be for Bristol. In the last 3 matches between the sides, they have 1 draw and 2 defeats, one of which was a 0-4 home defeat. Then you can take a peek at the home & away records between the sides. As the home side, Middlesbrough have W6 D1 L1 this season in the league, scoring 17 and conceding 9. As the away team, Bristol have W1 D1 L6 – the complete opposite to their opponents. Within these matches they have scored a pitiful 6 goals, and conceded 13. You can only imagine what the confidence within their squad is like at the moment. The players themselves must be dreading facing a decent footballing side such as ‘Boro.
If they are to try and frustrate their opponents and try to snatch a result, the player I would note as being key to Middlesbrough’s play is Emmanuel Ledesma. When ‘Boro manager Tony Mowbray was at West Brom, he managed to get them out of this league through playing attractive, attacking football. It seems that his style of play is finally bearing fruit at the Riverside, and key to this in my eyes is Ledesma. Having only seen the guy play on the limited highlights of ‘The Football League Show’, my opinion is based upon what are essentially ‘the best bits’. But he appears to be a fine footballer, has a decent delivery, is creative but also keeps things ticking over by cycling the ball nicely. It would not surprise me to see Bristol adopt a 4-5-1 formation to try and nullify the ‘Boro midfield. I’d like to see Ishmael Miller, or former Coventry striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, start up top for ‘Boro. Both of them have a physical presence which I feel would really rattle the nerves of a clearly fragile defence. When watching the highlights of Middlesbrough’s last match, I noticed that Ledesma knew who to whip in a cross, especially from dead ball situations, which could work to a big man’s benefit.
I’m likely to go with a Boro win -1. The odds should be better than expected due to the defeat they suffered against Cardiff, even though they outplayed the eventual victors according to several reports I have read.
Sheff Weds v LEICESTER
The cheetah is the fastest land animal, capable of running at speeds of 70mph. No, actually Mr. Attenborough, it’s Lloyd Dyer.
After staying up to make sure I got to see Coventry’s five goals against Hartlepool, one thing that I notice throughout the programme was that the majority of the goals scored in the football league that weekend were aided in one way or another by some form of poor defending. It was actually unbelievable that the level of defending on show from Championship level down to League Two had been so poor. Obviously a certain percentage of goals every week will be courtesy of a defensive boo-boo, but it was glaringly obvious that a higher than normal proportion of the weekends goal tally could be attributed to this. However, due to this blatancy, those that were the culmination of fine team play or individual brilliance were also more apparent. The goal, and in fact the performance, that caught my eye was that of Leicester’s Lloyd Dyer. This guy has got some serious speed. Like, he’s really, really fast. It was this trait that alone won the penalty for Leicester’s first goal. For his own strike, Leicester 3rd which in effect killed the game, he attacked the Ipswich full back at such speed, whilst keeping the ball under close control, that the outcome was nigh on inevitable. He resembled an on form Antonio Valencia; bursting with acceleration, sustainable speed, direct and decisive plays. These attributes were utilised again for the fourth goal before sliding the ball across goal for a sitter that his colleague could not miss, and once more for the sixth. I highly recommend trying to find the highlights of the game to fully appreciate his display. Against Sheffield Wednesday I can see Dyer being pivotal in the outcome of the game. Wednesday are likely to play Lewis Buxton at RB, but as honest a player as he may be, he doesn’t have the pace to compete with that of Dyer’s. I can see him being in for a torrid time. After a 4-game winless run which has seen the Foxes drop a few places, I can see the 6-0 demolition job of Ipswich being the catalyst for a good run of form. It shouldn’t be out of the question, as before coming up against Cardiff on December 22nd they have 5 win-able games. Wednesday’s home form is unimpressive but could be worse, having won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 (10/24 points). Having scored 11 and conceded 14, its fair to say that it is their defence that has been letting them down – Blackburn currently sit in 5th place with a home record of W5 D1 L2, scoring 9 and conceding 6. A tight backline can go a long way in any league. Leicester haven’t really travelled well this year, with a record of W2 D2 L4. They have managed just 9 goals away from home, conceding 10. But the impetus of a 6-0 win should not be ignored. Confidence will be high in the away dressing room, whereas every morale sapping defeat that Wednesday suffer will inevitably eat away at the self-belief that boss Dave Jones continually tried to instill in his side by irrepressibly claiming that “there’s no team in this division better than us. They might have a bit more composure in front of goal but that’s it”. Stop it Dave, just stop it, as it would seem that there’s 20 teams currently better than you in this division; 4 wins from 17 games is fooling nobody, especially when 2 of those came way back in August. Away win, and we could see the net bulge a few times.
Bury v BOURNEMOUTH
Sometimes the grass doesn’t turn out to be greener…
Eddie Howe could be to Bournemouth, as SAF is to United. Potentially, in relative turns, at least. After 100 matches at Bournemouth, the highlight of which was promotion to League One, Howe became manager of Burnley. He saw it as an upgrade. He traded in the girl he loved for one which seemed more attractive, and for a while it went okay. But then it stalled. They didn’t click. And so he reunited with Bournemouth. Since then, Howe and Bournemouth have won 6 and drew 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions. The union just works. It’s his club.
This weekend they come up against a Bury side who are in decent form. They were on a 3 game winning run until Colchester recorded a 2-0 win against them. During this mini-run of form, they faced Portsmouth and Oldham in the League. Portsmouth had lost 4 matches on the bounce prior to their meeting, and the match after. They had just lost their Manager a few days before, so a Bury win in that match was no surprise really. Their second win, against Oldham, was a decent victory. Oldham are an inconsistent side who started shockingly but found a little purple patch prior to the loss to Bury, losing just 1 of the previous 7 fixtures. Midweek Bury picked up an important win against fellow strugglers Scunthorpe, which will grant them a confidence boost going into this match up with Bournemouth.
I’m going against recent head to head form on this, perhaps unwisely. Bury have won the last three meetings between the sides, each time by a 1 goal margin. Generally if a side has won the last 3 meetings I would steer well clear. Of the two League 1 games I’ve featured, I would say that this is not the safest of bets due to Bury’s form. However, the power of resurgence is a strong one. Bournemouth have belief, they are on a roll, have direction, and their form is good. I can see O2.5 in this match aswell, as Bournemouth have the ability to score as demonstrate in their 4-1 demolition of Oldham, whilst there has been at least 2 goals in Bury’s last 4 matches.
COVENTRY v Portsmouth
Through sky blue tinted goggles…
I very, very rarely back my supported team, Coventry City; mainly because we are generally as useful as a chocolate kettle when it comes to playing football. ‘Holding a lead’ is a phrase rarely muttered throughout the Sky Blue Army. ‘We’re playing some good football’ is equally as infrequent. But most of all, the fans have been asking to have a goalscorer, a talisman, a figure of hope, for many a year now. It would appear that under relatively new boss Mark Robins, the above dreams are becoming reality at the Ricoh. After a jaw dropping 5-0 spanking of Hartlepool, this was followed up by an equally impressive, if not more so, 3-1 away win over Colchester. Key to the recent run of form is the performances and goals of loanee David McGoldrick. I remember playing Football Manager (or CM, whichever version it was then…) about 4 or 5 years ago when he was a promising player at Southampton. As everyone knows, FM is 100% reliable for players potential (Supat Rungratsumee / Cherno Samba, anyone?). But I believed the game at this time. McGoldrick has so far failed to live up to both virtual and reality based expectations of him. Yet, for a reason unbeknown to me, he’s found both himself, and the back of the net, at CCFC. His loan deal expires in January, at which point if he doesn’t join permanently we shouldn’t be too surprised. He is clearly a step up from League 1, and if Forest don’t want him, it is almost guarantee that somebody else in the Championship will. But for now, he’s ours, and he’s playing on Sunday, and he will score. Over the last 5 games, Coventry are actually one of the form sides in the league (it’s actually true!). Quite simply, Portsmouth aren’t. Michael Appleton was doing what is known as a ‘respectable job’ at Fratton Park before he quite rightly left for job security at Blackpool. Before he left they had lost 4 on the spin, and since he left they’ve lost the next 3. They haven’t had their pants pulled down in any of these matches, but alarmingly they have only scored in 2 of them. This is why I feel Coventry could take the 3 points. If the threat against the CCFC goal is minimal, for once we can almost rely on our attackers, David McG in particular, to find the net. It’s a refreshing thought. After our goalscoring exploits recently, a hopeful Coventry -1 or +0.5 goals AH might be nice too! Don’t screw me Cov, it will hurt!
Oxford v NORTHAMPTON
Adebayo Akinfenwa is the reason why after a KFC I still believe I can turn pro…
In modern day football, it is generally expected that players are able, if not willing, to run for 90 minutes, and that they look after their physique. An exception to this is Adebayo Akinfenwa. The guy is huge, yet he has eclipsed 100 career goals. This season he has been a focal point of Northampton’s attack. After reading through a few Northampton dominated forums I’m reliable informed that the once ‘rotund’ journeyman is now pure muscle. It makes you wonder what Emile Heskey could have achieved had he got the balls and desire to drop down a league or two and stay within the English game. However, after watching a few clips of Northamptons games this season, i can see similarities with a more special player – Dimitar Berbatov (no joke…). I came across a blog titled ‘Too Fat to Play Football?’, in which a comparison is made:
It is questionable how a player so massive is able to play football. The answer can be summed up with the following quote from a Bristol Rovers forum. ” Akinfenwa doesn’t get knackered because he hardly runs around. There are players that are naturally large and there are fat and lazy players. He’s fat and lazy. If he bothered to get himself properly fit he’d be a menace higher up the leagues.” There is no denying the fact that he is on the large size. Having taken a keen interest in the striker largely due to his weight, I have noticed that his awareness and first touch are so good that they would not look out of place in the Championship. Dimitar Berbatov has been described as the master of walking football. Perhaps Akinfenwa could be seen as the lower league equivalent?
Now no-one is suggesting he is anywhere near as good as Berba. The Bulgarian appears lazy because he knows his team mates will give him the ball, and when he has it, football comes naturally. Why run if the ball will come to you? Akinfenwa doesn’t run, because he probably can’t. After listening to his recent post match interview, he sounded like he had taken a few blows to the head, outlining that he doesnt really know when he’s scored in him ramblings. Perhaps he played Rugby (he certainly has the physique for it) when he was younger and took a few blows to the head, as he sounded like he was a penny short of the pound when i listened to him. This hasn’t detracted from his performance this season though, and with this guy in form I can see Northampton getting the better of Oxford this weekend. He is the ideal striker to play away from home and with Northampton relatively difficult to score against, having conceded 25 goals all year (a respectable figure in the context of the league), I can see an away win. I wouldn’t expect a high scoring game, maybe 1-0 might be worth a shot. Oxford have been better than have been bad at home this year, but their inconsistency (W4 D2 L3) leads me to trust in recent form: Northampton – WDWWW / Oxford – WLDLD.
Aldershot v Port Vale
When you have the Pope on your side…
Earlier in the season I won various bets backing a Port Vale win with Tom Pope to score. Over the last few weeks Port Vale have gone off the boil somewhat, picking up 4 points (4 draws) out of a possible 15. However, in their last match against a struggling Bristol Rovers, Pope fired in a hat trick to guarantee his side the 3 points in a 4-0 win. Port Vale have recently confirmed that a much needed takeover has been completed, a transfer embargo lifted allowing Micky Adams to potentially bring in reinforcements. Coupled with such an emphatic victory, the feeling around the club is a buoyant one, which could lead to a positive run of results.
Aldershot go into the match in indifferent form. In their last 5 matches in all competitions they have a record of WDLDW. Picking up a win in their last game is likely to be behind why you can get decent odds on Port Vale winning this match. I think Vale a great value for a win here, especially when you look at both home/away form and head to head. At home, Aldershot have W1 D2 L6, conceding 11 and scoring a pitiful 2 goals. Away from home, Vale have W5 D2 L2, scoring 15 and conceding 9 goals. The head to head history doesn’t do Aldershot any favours either, with Port Vale winning the last 4 encounters over the last 2 seasons.
Form & the feel good factor are my reasons behind backing Port Vale. Potential side bets of Pope to score and Vale to win, Port Vale -1, and O2.5 goals could also come in here.
Summary:
Lower Confidence
1) Arsenal, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leicester, Bournemouth, Coventry, Northampton, Port Vale
Small stake accumulator, 4fold & 6fold BetVictor @ 572/1
2) Arsenal v Aston Villa – BTTS BetVictor @ 1.62/1
3) Tom Pope to score and Port Vale to win PaddyPower @ 3.1/1
4) Northampton 1-0 Win Bet365 @ 11/1
5) Sunderland v West Brom Draw / 0-0 BetVictor @ 11/1
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Medium Confidence:
1) Coventry -1 BetFred @ 3.4/1
2) Coventry +0.5 AH Bet365 @ 1.28/1
3) David McGoldrick Anytime BetVictor @ 2/1
4) West Brom +0.5 AH BetVictor @ 1.64/1
5) Middlesbrough -1 Bet365 @ 2.07/1
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High Confidence:
1) Aldershot v Port Vale O2.5 goals Bet365 @ 1.95/1
2) Port Vale -1 Ladbrokes @ 4.5/1
3) Sheff Wednesday v Leicester O2.5 Goals Coral @ 1.91/1
4) Bury v Bournemouth O2.5 Goals Bet365 @ 1.8/1
The Soccer Surgeon 
