21 / 04 / 2014

I’ve gone for a huge odds long list this Bank Holiday Monday. Obviously i have looked at the games and thought about how they might play out, but with any bet there is risk, no more so than when you back so many teams. Feel free to take a pick of the bunch, ive just stuck a small stake on the 10’s & 11’s aswell as on the full 12 fold.

BRIGHTON v Blackpool

After drawing their previous game to Huddersfield, Brighton will want to return to winning ways in order to preserve their play off position. Blackpool have slipped into the relegation zone now, and possessing the 2^nd worst away record in the division will only strengthen Brighton’s belief of taking the 3 points in this tie.

DERBY v Barnsley

Derby are now assured of a place in the play offs at the end of the season, but I doubt this will have a negative effect on the team, with Steve McLaren sure to want to maintain their good form until the season ends. They are up there with the best teams in the league in terms of their home record, and facing a Barnsley side who occupy a relegation spot, due in no small part to their dismal away record, should lead to a home win for the Rams.

PETERBOROUGH v Carlisle

A sending off towards the end of the 1^st half meant that Posh had an uphill battle to take anything from their previous game, which ended in a 1-0 loss away at Bradford. Despite this their home form this seasons fills me with confidence as they are ranked as the 5^th best home side, and having won 3 on a bounce at home along with 3 clean sheets, they should be full of confidence. Carlisle are a poor side away from home, and with both sides still having something to play for, albeit at opposite ends of the table, i anticipate quality shining through in this one.

PRESTON v Shrewsbury

Having lost just twice at home this season, Preston look destined to avoid defeat when facing Shrewsbury, who are the 4^th worst away side. Although Preston lost their last fixture, there is no shame in losing to Brentford, whose victory secured them promotion. With Shrewsbury having lost 3 of their last 4 games, I expect a home victory here.

FLEETWOOD v Wycombe

Since the start of March Fleetwood have lost just one game, achieving 5 wins and 5 draws. This fine run has seen them secure a play off place, and are still in with a great chance of an automatic promotion spot. They host a Wycombe side who sit outside of the relegation zone on goal difference, and in comparison to Fleetwood’s run of results outlined above, Wycombe has recorded just 2 victories in this period, losing 5 times. Home advantage should be a factor in this fixture, and with Fleetwood’s fans are sure to be encouraging their side to push for the 3 points in order to maintain their hopes of automatic promotion.

MANSFIELD v Cheltenham

Since the end of February, Mansfield have lost just twice at home, with those defeats coming to Bury and York who have both been in decent form over the past couple of months. More recently they have won 2 and drew 1 of their last 3 home games, with 3 clean sheets. Cheltenham have lost 4 of their last 6 games, and despite not being mathematically safe from relegation look to have taken their foot off the gas as the likelihood is that they will be safe. Only 5 points separate the sides, but Mansfield have the form and I expect them to continue their good performances.

SCUNTHORPE v Oxford

I like to look at home/away form when picking games, and with Scunthorpe having a home record of W 9 D10 L2 this season, they are a force at home no doubt. Oxford are ranked as the 4^th best away side in the division, but recently they have let their standards slip. Since mid-February Oxford have been poor, with a record of W2 D2 L8. Worryingly for them, in 6 of these defeats they failed to score. Away from home they ended a 4 game losing run by defeating Plymouth, but interestingly 3 of these defeats came against Chesterfield (2^nd), Southend (6^th) & Rochdale (3^rd). Travelling to the better sides in the division appears to be a problem for Oxford, so facing Scunthorpe may produce a similar result.

SOUTHEND v Accrington

5 clean sheets in 7 games has set Southend up nicely to produce a good run of results at a crucial stage of the season. They bounced back from a defeat to Wimbledon to put 3 unanswered goals past 3^rd placed Rochdale on Friday night. Prior to their home defeat to Wimbledon, Southend had been unbeaten in 5 at home, and had claimed 3 clean sheets on the bounce. Since March Accrington have a record of W3 D5 L3. It is worth noting that in 8 of these games they scored 1 or zero goals, so finding the net is not something they excel in. Accrington are still fighting for survival, but with Southend battling to keep their dreams of promotion alive, quality should shine through here.

GRIMSBY v Hyde

Grimsby face a battle to stay in the chase for a play off spot, but i expect them to do the business against relegated Hyde. They are a solid enough side at home having lost just two league games at Blundell Park since the turn of 2014. There is not too much to be said about Hyde, already relegated they are low in quality and once they concede they the floodgates open.

KIDDERMINSTER v Nuneaton

1 defeat in 11 has propelled Kidderminster into contention for a play off position, but they need to secure the 3 points in this fixture to remain in the chase, and 3 wins on the trot is perfect preparation. A run of 7 games has yielded just 2 points for Nuneaton meaning they has slipped out of the race for a play off spot. They have also now failed to score in their last 3 games. With Nuneaton having nothing left to play for, Kidderminster should claim the victory as long as they perform.

Macclesfield v GATESHEAD

Macclesfield are now safe from relegation, so it would not surprise me were they to relax for their remaining two games of the season. Gateshead currently occupy the last play off spot and are battling to remain in that position, and going unbeaten through March and April thus far is exactly what they need to build on and continue. 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games is something they will look to repeat, and with their opponents having lost 2 games prior to this fixture, Gateshead can blame only themselves should they fail to win.

Southport v HALIFAX

With just two games remaining of the season it seems likely that Halifax will be in the play off mix at the end of the season, but a win against Southport will secure this fate for them. With Southport 5 point clear of the drop zone they all but safe with it being unlikely that those teams below them will pick up enough points in the remaining games to drag them into the relegation zone. After scoring 6 in 10 for Southport, dangerous striker Jason Walker has been recalled by Forest Green Rovers, and i feel Southport will miss him. Recently Cambridge (2^nd) and Braintree (6^th) have defeated Southport, so Halifax, currently sitting in 3^rd, should have enough quality to claim the spoils.

12 Fold @ 792/1